College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every Big Ten team's win total

The Big Ten Conference has produced the past three national champions, but it is not favored to win the title four years in a row this season.

In a proposition wager at BetMGM asking bettors which league will ultimately triumph in the College Football Playoff, the SEC edges the Big Ten at +135 (risking $100 to win $135) versus +145, respectively. After adjusting for the house’s hold percentage, the market implies only a slightly better than 35 percent chance that the Big Ten repeats as champion.

That may seem surprising given that the Big Ten houses the outright favorite in the early market. Ohio State is listed as low as +450 in Las Vegas to win its second championship in three seasons.

Five teams are listed at odds better than 10‑to‑1 and sit just below the Buckeyes at Caesars/William Hill — and two of them are Big Ten rivals: Indiana (+750) and Oregon (8‑to‑1).

So, shouldn’t that be enough to push the Big Ten above the SEC? Not quite, because of a noticeable drop‑off that follows.

None of the next eight teams behind the top six in the championship odds come from the Big Ten; instead, five more SEC representatives (LSU, Texas A&M, Alabama, Oklahoma and Ole Miss) join Texas (+650) and Georgia (8‑to‑1).

In other words, the Big Ten is viewed more as a Big Three this season, with everyone else lagging behind. If a surprise champion emerges, it is more likely to come from another conference.

Of course, there probably won’t be a bigger surprise than Indiana, which was as high as 125‑to‑1 at this time a year ago before its national‑title run.

I missed on the Hoosiers in this article a year ago, picking them to finish under 8.5 wins as part of an underwhelming Big Ten handicapping effort. I did go 11‑7 overall picking each team’s win total, but an unprofitable 3‑4 on plays to go with 2‑1 on leans and 6‑2 on guesses.

Let’s aim for a more profitable showing this season. Read below for handicaps on each Big Ten team’s win total. Lines are the best available in Las Vegas on the selected side with the sportsbook noted. Check back over the next two weeks for the final two parts of this series.

Illinois (over/under 7.5 wins)

Illinois is coming off its best back‑to‑back seasons in decades, but maintaining that level will not be easy with significant roster turnover. Quarterback Luke Altmyer might have been one of the nation’s most underrated play‑callers the past two years, and a large reason the Illini posted an unsustainable 8‑0 record in games decided by seven points or fewer down the stretch. Some regression is expected in that area, even with former East Carolina back Katin Houser taking over, and on defense where Illinois is extremely inexperienced entering its first season under former UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck as coordinator.

Play: Under 7.5 wins -155 (Boomer’s)

Indiana (over/under 10.5 wins)

Doubting head coach Curt Cignetti and the defending national champions at your own peril, but the price has grown excessively prohibitive to back them heading into the season. This win total is triple what was set for the Hoosiers in Cignetti’s first year, and even a two‑victory improvement from last year. On paper, this squad could be more talented than last year’s legendary national‑title team entering the season. However, the schedule looks tougher and there are too many key pieces to replace. Indiana may keep flying, but backing teams when they are priced at all‑time highs like this is not a profitable long‑term strategy.  

Lean: Under 10.5 wins -120 (Circa Sports)

Iowa (over/under 7.5 wins)

The Hawkeyes possess the smallest returning production of any squad in the conference. They have not finished below this win total in 12 years (excluding the shortened 2020 season), riding a wave of consistency stemming from a stalwart defense and imposing play in the trenches. Yet there are far more questions in those areas than usual this year. Iowa should return to the upper‑middle of the Big Ten standings soon, but sometimes it is important to know when to step aside. The market is giving Iowa too much credit for its reputation.

Lean: Under 7.5 wins +120 (South Point)

Maryland (over/under 5.5 wins)

Coach Mike Locksley somehow retained his job for an eighth season despite having ever led the Terrapins to a winning record only twice, with three total winning seasons. Maryland routinely looks sloppy and makes costly mistakes, which are difficult to overlook given its inherent talent disadvantage in the Big Ten. Money has poured in on the under at sportsbooks taking larger bets, and it is not hard to see why.

Lean: Under 5.5 wins -125 (BetMGM)

Michigan (over/under 8.5 wins)

Michigan is another squad that has drawn some market skepticism. But unlike Maryland, it has the talent to contend at the top of the league under first‑year head coach Kyle Whittingham. Sophomore running back Bryce Underwood is truly the ideal mascot for the team, as hype surrounds him while he possesses all the tools to look like one of the nation’s best players. The over/under of 8.5 wins feels about right, but the plus‑money on the bullish side has grown excessively large.

Guess: Over 8.5 wins +150 (Circa)

Michigan State (over/under 4.5 wins)

The Spartans are in rebuilding mode as they transition from head coach Jonathan Smith to Pat Fitzgerald, a move that could be argued as a downgrade. It is difficult to believe given how strong the program stood as high as five years ago, but Michigan State may possess the worst roster in the conference. It only projects as a favorite in one Big Ten game — when it hosts Northwestern and may merely salvage a field goal at best — and the Spartans travel to Notre Dame as part of the non‑conference slate.

Guess: Under 4.5 wins -140 (South Point)

Minnesota (over/under 5.5 wins)

The Gophers look poised to finish 6‑6, which would be under 6.5 at odds as low as ‑130 if a couple of sportsbooks didn’t offer off‑market prices on the over 5.5 wins. Coach P.J. Fleck has won fewer than six games only once in eight years (not counting 2020) with Minnesota, and this is not one of his weaker teams. There has indeed been positive buzz on both sides of the ball this offseason, with hype suggesting sophomore running back Drake Lindsey could break out while edge rusher Anthony Smith builds on last year’s surge.

Guess: Over 5.5 wins -160 (Boomer’s)  

Nebraska (over/under 6.5 wins)