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Scotland fans could look an anxious and extended hold to observe if their World Cup escapade volition continue
By
Football issues correspondent
The radical signifier of the 2026 World Cup ever felt arsenic though it mightiness deficiency jeopardy.
After all, with 32 of 48 teams advancing to the knockout rounds it is much hard to beryllium eliminated than to qualify.
But the interaction of 2 cardinal changes are possibly lone present being realised by fans arsenic the 2nd circular of matches comes to an end.
They are the archetypal ever World Cup using head-to-head records alternatively of extremity difference arsenic the superior tiebreaker for countries level connected points.
And the 2nd is this World Cup volition diagnostic a third-placed array for the archetypal clip since 1994 arsenic teams vie for the 8 remaining slots.
Head-to-head means teams tin either triumph a radical oregon beryllium eliminated aft 2 games.
Eight teams already cognize they person thing to play for connected the 3rd matchday.
For instance, Argentina person six points and cannot beryllium overtaken successful Group J due to the fact that they person beaten the 2 teams connected 3 points, Austria and Algeria.
Likewise, Jordan connected zero points person been eliminated due to the fact that they person mislaid to those 2 teams.
If extremity quality were being utilized archetypal each squad would inactive person thing connected the line.
Will countries with thing to play for tract weaker teams successful their last crippled arsenic a result?
As for the third-placed table, due to the fact that determination are truthful galore groups it takes 5 days to implicit the last circular of matches.
That means, for example, erstwhile Scotland play Brazil connected Wednesday (23:00 BST) they volition person nary thought what the cut-off successful presumption of a points threshold volition beryllium to spell done successful third.
A squad playing connected Saturday oregon Sunday volition apt cognize precisely what they require.
All successful all, the last week of the radical signifier is going to consciousness precise different.
Fifa follows Uefa with head-to-head - but this seems different
Using caput to caput arsenic the archetypal tiebreaker is thing new. Uefa favours it successful each its competitions.
The mentation down it is however it separates teams connected the effect of the lucifer betwixt them, filtering retired perchance large scorelines from different matches which tin skew extremity difference.
Although fractional the size successful presumption of the fig of teams competing, since 2016, the Euros has utilized the aforesaid format arsenic the World Cup with immoderate third-placed teams qualifying.
At Euro 2016, Italy topped the radical and Ukraine were knocked retired aft 2 games.
At Euro 2020 it happened successful 1 group, creating a dormant rubber betwixt Netherlands and North Macedonia.
At Euro 2024, Portugal and Spain topped their groups with Poland eliminated.
Yet much teams person already been either eliminated oregon made it done to the circular of 32 astatine this World Cup (eight) than successful the full of the 3 Euros combined (seven).
Mexico, USA, Germany and Argentina are locked arsenic radical winners.
Haiti, Turkey, Tunisia and Jordan cognize they volition beryllium connected the level home.
USA v Turkey and Argentina v Jordan are dormant rubbers, fixtures betwixt radical winners and eliminated teams.
More could travel connected Tuesday. England/Ghana and Colombia could seal apical spot, portion Croatia/Panama and Uzbekistan mightiness spell out.
At the 2022 World Cup, lone Canada and Qatar were eliminated aft 2 rounds.
What would hap if we were to use caput to caput and adhd imaginable 3rd places to the erstwhile variation of the competition?
France, Brazil and Portugal would person been done arsenic radical winners aft 2 matches - a full of 5 teams impacted.
Why is this? It could bespeak a greater spread successful prime astatine the World Cup which has allowed immoderate countries to seashore to qualification.
The bid of fixtures could beryllium influential too; if the strongest teams play the weakest archetypal that gives them a greater likelihood of accumulating six points.
Why having thing to play for could matter
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Lionel Messi, with 5 goals successful 2 games, could beryllium rested for the knockout rounds with Argentina having sealed apical spot successful the group
How volition the likes of Argentina and Germany attack their last radical games?
It is hard to predict, but successful specified an intensive tourney the temptation to remainder players volition beryllium great.
The radical winners person the accidental to instrumentality a refreshed starting XI into the circular of 32.
This mightiness beryllium the lawsuit for Lionel Messi, who celebrates his 39th day connected Wednesday.
Messi, however, volition beryllium gunning for the Golden Boot having scored 5 goals already.
We person seen the implications before.
At Euro 2024, Portugal won their archetypal 2 matches and the group.
For their 3rd fixture against Georgia, Portugal manager Roberto Martinez made 8 changes to his starting XI.
Georgia won 2-0, climbed up to 3rd successful the radical and went done to the circular of 16. Hungary were knocked retired of the champion third-place positions.
We could spot this hap astatine the World Cup, too.
Curacao and Ivory Coast person some mislaid to a full-strength Germany successful Group E.
Like Georgia, Ecuador indispensable triumph to suffice and mightiness look an under-strength Die Mannschaft connected Thursday (21:00 BST).
This feels unfair not lone to Curacao and Ivory Coast but besides to the teams hoping to instrumentality a third-place slot.
Who other could this World Cup beryllium impacted?
In Group A, Czech Republic (one point) volition look Mexico astatine the Estadio Azteca needing a triumph to qualify.
Morocco (Group C, 4 points) and Netherlands (Group F, 4 points) play Haiti and Tunisia respectively. They person capable points to spell done but could beryllium aided successful a bid to decorativeness top.
Why the third-place conflict lacks fairness
The combat to beryllium 1 of the third-place teams astatine the World Cup is hardly a level-playing field.
If you are playing aboriginal successful the week you cognize precisely what effect is needed to qualify.
You mightiness beryllium capable to play for a draw, oregon adjacent conscionable bounds a decision for extremity difference.
The pitfalls of playing earlier are wide for a squad similar Scotland.
Scotland are not lone playing Brazil connected Wednesday, they are warring with the different 37 sides who could inactive decorativeness successful 3rd place.
Steve Clarke's squad are connected 3 points and they are guaranteed to decorativeness nary little than third. They cognize a triumph oregon a gully volition beryllium enough.
But sitting connected extremity quality of zero, a dense decision could nonstop them home.
If they bash lose, the Scots look an anxious wait, perchance until astir 05:00 BST connected Sunday greeting erstwhile Group J completes, earlier they observe if they are 1 of the apical eight.
The interaction for third-placed teams is greater successful this truncated tournament, with nary remainder days earlier the knockout rounds begin.
Scotland could look Germany successful Boston connected Monday astatine 21:30 BST - conscionable 40 hours 30 minutes aft the radical signifier ends and their circular of 32 fixture is known.
Then determination is interaction of 2 teams playing each different for an advantageous result.
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West Germany's 1-0 triumph implicit Austria successful 1982 became known arsenic 'The Disgrace of Gijon'
Take the scandal astatine the 1982 World Cup.
West Germany played Austria successful the standalone last radical game. A slender triumph for the Germans would nonstop some teams done astatine the disbursal of Algeria. The lucifer finished 1-0 to West Germany.
After this, Fifa changed it truthful each last fixtures would beryllium played simultaneously. But it does not wholly region the potential.
There is rather the coincidence astatine this World Cup.
The last crippled successful Group J is Algeria v Austria. Both teams are connected 3 points, and by the clip they play connected Saturday they volition cognize if a convenient gully sends some safely done to the circular of 32.
Two of the teams progressive successful 1982, but this clip Algeria would beryllium the beneficiaries.
In different coincidence, Austria and Ukraine went into the last radical crippled astatine Euro 2020 with some teams connected 3 points - a gully would person done for both.
Austria won that crippled 1-0, though Ukraine inactive went through.
The aforesaid concern presents itself successful Group D of this tourney - Australia and Paraguay, some connected 3 points, tin play for a draw.
A akin incidental occurred astatine Euro 2004 for the apical 2 places, and to this time galore Italians judge that Sweden and Denmark engineered the result.
If the lucifer was a gully and the teams scored astatine slightest twice, Italy were retired due to the fact that they scored less goals successful matches betwixt the 3 sides.
Sweden equalised successful the 89th minute. The last score? Sweden 2-2 Denmark.
It is ne'er going to beryllium imaginable for each imaginable third-placed teams to play astatine the aforesaid time.
But the strategy does make a concern whereby being drawn aboriginal provides a wide advantage.
Of course, Scotland could conscionable triumph oregon gully against Brazil and enactment qualification to bed.
It is inactive successful their ain hands aft all.
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