The New York Giants host the Washington Commanders on Thursday night riding a two-game winning streak, but betting analysis suggests the road team should not be dismissed. The Commanders had covered the spread in two consecutive games before a competitive non-cover in a 20-13 loss to the Rams last week.
Over the past three weeks, both defenses rank among the NFL's top 10 in EPA per play allowed. Washington ranks seventh against the pass at minus-0.090 and is starting to resemble a Dan Quinn defense, while New York ranks fifth overall at minus-0.166. The key difference, according to the analysis, is at quarterback: Washington has Jayden Daniels, while New York starts J.J. McCarthy.
Daniels rushed for 103 yards and two touchdowns in his previous meeting with the Giants and is expected to take better advantage of passing opportunities this time. McCarthy has thrown for at least 243 yards in his first two starts but managed only 127 yards against Philadelphia last week, with additional film and challenging weather conditions potentially limiting him further.
Betting splits show the Giants drawing more than three-quarters of bets as the line moved from New York minus-1.5 to minus-2.5, while the total dropped from 44 to 41 at Circa Sports. OptaAI projects McCarthy for 188.86 passing yards against a DraftKings line of 210.5, representing a 12.8 percent edge on the under.
Despite the public backing New York, the analysis backs the Commanders to win outright, citing comparable defenses and Daniels' playmaking ability as the decisive factor at MetLife Stadium.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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