Suited and booted: How Joseph Kabila went from president to rebel leader

Joseph Kabila was a commandant successful the rebel confederation that brought his begetter to powerfulness successful the Democratic Republic of Congo successful 1997, went connected to win him arsenic president and now, astatine the property of 55, helium is simply a rebel person erstwhile again.

In an adjacent alien twist, the antheral helium has sworn to topple is the precise antheral helium handed powerfulness to aft 18 years astatine the helm, and with whom helium had formed a conjugation authorities aft stepping down. While 1 of the rebel groups helium had fought against arsenic president is portion of his caller alliance.

His vocation reflects the ever-shifting quality of authorities successful DR Congo, wherever alliances are ephemeral, with the usage of unit a changeless threat.

When Kabila was named person of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), earlier this month, it confirmed what galore Congolese had agelong believed – that the erstwhile president was moving with the M23 rebels, who past twelvemonth seized overmuch of eastbound DR Congo, including the region's main cities of Goma and Bukavu.

Nevertheless, the confirmation sent shockwaves done DR Congo – a immense state two-thirds the size of occidental Europe, with immense deposits of gold, diamonds and adjacent much importantly minerals utilized to marque everything from the mobile phones to batteries for electrical vehicles.

For Kabila, the confederation offers a imaginable way backmost to the powerfulness helium had lost.

For the M23 rebels, his engagement brings the acquisition and networks of a erstwhile caput of authorities to a question whose subject advances person yet to construe into wide nationalist legitimacy.

But it is acold from definite that they tin execute their stated extremity of ousting President Félix Tshisekedi.

Policy expert Henry-Pacifique Mayala told the BBC that Kabila had been near with fewer options for regaining governmental influence.

"He really was near with nary different choice," helium said.

Facing a decease condemnation aft being convicted successful absentia of treason, arsenic good arsenic US sanctions implicit his alleged enactment for the M23, Kabila whitethorn person sought assurances that the concern could service his interests, Mayala suggested.

"I'm not definite that helium is making this immense leap successful the acheronian without having received sizeable assurance," Mayala said, adding that the M23's subject spot could springiness Kabila greater leverage successful immoderate aboriginal negotiations with the Congolese government.

Kabila's engagement besides raises questions astir whether the struggle could dispersed beyond the east.

The M23's territorial gains person been concentrated successful the country's eastbound provinces, immoderate 1,500km (1,000 miles) from the capital, Kinshasa.

Kabila's governmental networks could springiness the rebellion a broader reach, but that does not needfully mean it has the capableness to widen its subject run crossed the country.

And it is not wide however acold Kabila's nationalist scope extends.

While helium was successful power, aft being named pursuing the mysterious assassination of his begetter Laurent successful 2001, helium was often seen arsenic thing of an outsider successful Kinshasa. He was acold much astatine location speaking Swahili, the lingua franca of eastbound DR Congo, arsenic good arsenic eastbound Africa, alternatively than the Lingala spoken successful Kinshasa.

His father's rebel radical really walked crossed the state to Kinshasa, besides starting successful the east, implicit a play of 7 months, earlier yet seizing powerfulness successful May 1996 and ousting long-time ruler Mobutu Sese Seko, who had governed the state arsenic his ain idiosyncratic spot for much than 30 years.

There is small proposition that Joseph Kabila's FRN would effort to repetition that feat but earlier this week, helium likened Tshisekedi to Mobutu.

"You person a tyrant who wants to enforce and dictate what helium thinks is close and not needfully travel the constitution, which is the ultimate instrumentality of the land," helium told Conspiracy Trackers Great Lakes (CTGL), a probe radical which campaigns against disinformation successful that portion of Africa.

Kabila accused the authorities of utilizing the decease penalty, ending the moratorium introduced during his ain presidency, to intimidate civilians, politicians and members of the military, arsenic good arsenic himself.

"This is personal," helium said.

He framed his confrontation with Tshisekedi arsenic a combat against authoritarianism, invoking Section 64 of the constitution, which calls connected citizens to defy anyone who seizes powerfulness oregon exercises it successful usurpation of law provisions.

Tshisekedi is rumoured to beryllium readying to alteration the constitution to let him to question a 3rd word successful office, with the C64 conjugation of absorption parties named aft that aforesaid conception of the constitution, campaigning against specified a move.

But successful a motion that helium whitethorn not get everything his ain way, the C64 conjugation this week refused to backmost Kabila's rebellion, saying that Congo's aggregate information crises cannot beryllium resolved by subject means alone. Instead, it announced plans to question nonstop talks with some Tshisekedi and Kabila successful pursuit of what it called a "genuine and inclusive nationalist dialogue".

Richard Moncrieff, a Great Lakes expert with the International Crisis Group, said President Tshisekedi retained important advantages.

"Tshisekedi has beardown American backing. He has a batch of money. And helium mostly controls the governmental strategy and, arsenic acold arsenic we tin see, the subject system," Moncrieff said.

In his archetypal nationalist absorption to Kabila being named FRN leader, Tshisekedi was damning: "In my view, it's simply impervious that helium has ne'er loved this country, and adjacent little its inhabitants," helium said past week.

And yet Kabila is wide believed to person helped guarantee that Tshisekedi succeeded him, alternatively than Martin Fayulu, who was the existent victor of the 2018 elections, according to leaked results provided by the Catholic Church, which had observers astir the country.

Indeed, the erstwhile caput of the electoral committee who announced Tshisekedi arsenic the winner, Corneille Nangaa, has said arsenic much.

Now 1 of Kabila's deputies successful the FRN, helium claimed that Kabila and Tshisekedi had reached a governmental statement earlier the last predetermination results were announced.

"I tin corroborate that I helped draught the deal," Nangaa told France 24 successful September 2023. "Tshisekedi is simply a liar. He knows determination was an statement and helium knows what was contained successful the deal."

Tshisekedi has maintained that helium won the predetermination legitimately.

After the disputed election, Kabila and Tshisekedi entered a power-sharing statement that allowed Kabila's conjugation to clasp power of parliament adjacent aft Tshisekedi took bureau successful January 2019.

The statement unravelled successful December 2020, erstwhile Tshisekedi moved to interruption Kabila's parliamentary dominance and physique his ain majority. The erstwhile allies became rivals, and Kabila went into self-imposed exile successful South Africa.

From exile, Kabila's disapproval of Tshisekedi grew louder.

He returned to DR Congo successful 2025 and appeared successful rebel-held Goma. In September that year, a subject tribunal sentenced him to decease successful absentia connected charges including treason and financing unit successful eastbound Congo.

At the time, helium rejected the accusations.

Yet different intriguing sub-plot to the announcement is Kabila's narration with Rwanda's President Paul Kagame.

In the aboriginal years of his presidency, ties were strained betwixt DR Congo and Rwanda, which accused its elephantine neighbour of not doing capable to region taste Hutu militias progressive successful the 1994 Rwandan genocide from its territory. Their beingness successful what is present DR Congo has been utilized to warrant Rwanda's repeated subject engagement successful its elephantine neighbour, going backmost to its backing of Laurent Kabila's rebellion.

The M23 was formed successful 2012, vowing to basal up for the rights of taste Tutsis and to support them against these militias, but besides battling the Congolese army, nether the power of Joseph Kabila.

From the commencement Rwanda was accused of backing them. It has ever denied these allegations, arsenic it inactive does contempt overwhelming evidence.

However, relations aboriginal improved and Kabila's authorities worked with Rwanda against the Hutu militias.

Alex Adams, Africa programme manager astatine the European Council connected Foreign Relations, said Kabila's assignment arsenic rebel person could bring his interests into alignment with those of Rwanda's president, adjacent though their objectives differ.

"Kabila wants to retrieve governmental power nationally, portion Kagame is chiefly acrophobic with Rwanda's information and strategical presumption successful eastbound Congo. This is an alignment of convenience alternatively than a concern built connected heavy trust," helium said.

Policy expert Mayala said Kabila's engagement could assistance Rwanda antagonistic accusations that it was interfering successful Congo's interior affairs.

"This is simply a erstwhile president. It's yet a Congolese rebellion," helium said.

Even earlier the announcement of Kabila arsenic the rebellion's leader, warring was continuing contempt a bid accord overseen by Donald Trump past year.

Part of that woody saw the US motion an statement to extract DR Congo's mineral wealthiness and the US has since seemed to broadside with Tshisekedi by imposing sanctions connected assorted Rwandan officials and bodies, accusing them of prolonging the violence.

Elections are scheduled for 2028, but Tshisekedi has warned that warring successful the eastbound could hold voting.

Against this backdrop, Kabila has questioned whether elections unsocial tin resoluteness the country's governmental crisis.

"Does Congo request elections oregon a revolution?" helium asked, arguing that lasting bid required a cardinal overhaul of the country's enforcement and legislature.

International information expert Ovigwe Eguegu argues that Kabila is banking connected subject unit to regain governmental influence, portion Tshisekedi seems to beryllium trying to widen his clip successful bureau beyond what the constitution allows.

"It looks similar the Congolese radical are going to suffer either way, due to the fact that neither of these 2 sides contiguous a credible economical translation program for some the eastbound Congo and the entirety of the country," Eguegu said.

Additional reporting by Emery Makumeno successful Kinshasa and Didier Bikorimana, BBC Great Lakes