The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks both enter their Week 6 Thursday Night Football matchup with 3-2 records, but the defending champion Broncos are betting favorites. While DraftKings showed a small majority of bets on Seattle, the handle favored the Seahawks, whereas at Circa Sports—considered one of the sharpest books—a majority of tickets favored Seattle but the handle overwhelmingly favored the Broncos.
Seattle’s offense has struggled, ranking 26th in EPA per play (-0.070) and 30th in rushing EPA per play (-0.275), which has hurt Sam Darnold’s performance and undermined their play-action passing game. Denver’s defense aims to limit chunk plays and focus on stopping the run, despite injuries to defensive backs like Pat Surtain II.
Although Denver’s offense has been inconsistent and Sean Payton’s play-calling hasn’t clearly improved things, the author believes Denver’s offense is better than Seattle’s. The Broncos are 3-2 straight up on Thursdays under Payton, 22-8 at home under him, and have a winning record as home underdogs, suggesting they are well-suited for this spot.
The author is taking Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to exceed 47 receiving yards, citing favorable matchup data against Josh Jobe (PFF grade 54.1) and OptaAI projections of 55.84 yards—nearly 10 yards above the over/under. No lean is attached to the prop, but the tools support the take.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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