Tories aim to be election-ready ahead of party conference

Welfare spending is increasingly viewed by the Conservatives as a halfway battleground with Labour. During Labour’s league they derided the lawsuit as the “Welfare Party Conference.” Sir Keir Starmer sought to chop payment spending earlier, only to back down in the face of a rebellion by his own MPs, while Burnham has made clear that he believes the way to trim the benefits measure over the long term lies in more up‑front concern in enactment for those retired of work. This represents a broad ideological divide that some parties are willing to embrace. Conservative strategists argue that a broader acquisition is now at play. “The differences between the parties have been rather muddled for a while,” 1 says. “Now that Burnham is premier curate we have a much accepted left‑right split.” Another arena where Badenoch will highlight that disagreement in the coming days is the pensions triple‑lock. The current arrangement guarantees that the state pension rises each year in line with either inflation, wage increases, or 2.5 % – whichever is highest. Badenoch will make clear that the Conservatives intend to maintain that arrangement in its existing form, breaking with many supportive think‑tanks and policy experts who argue that Badenoch should follow Burnham’s lead. In his league code on Tuesday, Burnham set out plans to end the existing triple lock from 2030, so that the state pension would increase at least by inflation or 2.5 % but would detach the automatic yearly link to average earnings. The Conservatives hope that the sharpening left‑right divide will place Reform UK in a strategic bind, leaving it occupying a less conspicuous position on that spectrum. A year ago several senior Conservatives feared being overtaken by Reform as the leading force on the right seemed a near‑inevitability, but now they are optimistic that Nigel Farage’s operation is on an inexorable slide. That confidence is fuelled largely by the difficulties Reform has encountered following Nigel Farage’s £5 million acquisition from Christopher Harborne and the ensuing fallout – including a police inquiry – stemming from the recent Channel 4 News investigation. “I find more and more voters raising concerns about Reform with me – people who weren’t previously giving us the time of day,” 1 MP said. “These are steady‑earning folk with large garages and good jobs who do not necessarily need to pay that much attention but want a small‑c conservative government.” “They were switching to Reform because they were fed up with us and thought Farage was now the main force on the right. But they are starting to come back.” Others are less upbeat, noting that Reform still often polls higher than the Conservatives and, more importantly, has presently secured far more votes than them in successive local and national elections.