Why Nigeria's one-time political giant may face extinction

ByMansur Abubakar

Reporting fromAbuja

Once the undisputed elephantine of Nigerian politics, the Peoples Democratic Party present finds itself connected the brink of extinction.

A question hanging implicit the run for January's wide election, which officially kicked disconnected this week, is whether the PDP tin survive.

A factional conflict that has ended up successful the courts implicit who precisely is successful complaint could extremity up rendering it irrelevant astatine the ballot box.

It is simply a singular autumn for the party, founded successful 1998, which appeared impregnable aft the extremity of subject regularisation a twelvemonth aboriginal - truthful overmuch truthful that its president boasted successful 2008 that it would govern for six decades.

For 16 years, it controlled the presidency - successful the signifier of Olusegun Obasanjo, Umaru Musa Yar'Adua and past Goodluck Jonathan - and the immense bulk of the country's 36 states.

But the 2015 national predetermination was a seismic shock.

The PDP mislaid the statesmanlike ballot to Muhammadu Buhari and the recently formed All Progressives Congress (APC) - a conjugation of absorption parties and disgruntled erstwhile members.

Thrust into the governmental wilderness the party's nationalist leaders were bewildered - acquainted with the trappings of national powerfulness they had to enactment retired what to bash successful opposition.

This was the opening of the end, according to governmental expert Ishaq Buhari.

"They were a enactment that was truthful utilized to power, being successful absorption was a caller situation they struggled with from the start," helium told the BBC.

If 2015 was a large blow, 2025 was the twelvemonth the party's foundations were near successful ruins.

It was marked by a dizzying question of defections and bitter interior conflicts.

A radical of authorities governors switched enactment allegiance, which had a peculiarly devastating effect.

At the commencement of that year, the PDP inactive held 8 states. But by December, 5 authorities governors - from Delta, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Bayelsa and Rivers - had gone implicit to the ruling APC.

They cited the PDP's declining viability and a tendency for amended co-operation with the national authorities arsenic reasons for their departure.

Early this year, the PDP held 3 states but that is present down to zero - with the Oyo governorship slipping from the party's hands conscionable past month.

Internal powerfulness struggles, factionalism, insistence that powerfulness rotates done the regions and disciplinary measures person each added to the consciousness of disillusionment wrong the party.

The PDP has been robbed of high-profile figures and talent, including the nonaccomplishment of erstwhile Vice-President Atiku Aubakar past year.

The situation was intensified by a debilitating enactment tussle.

In November 2025, a faction of the party, which observers accidental represented the bulk of members, held a contentious nationalist normal successful Ibadan, Oyo state, contempt tribunal orders attempting to halt it.

The normal expelled Nyesom Wike, a salient PDP subordinate who is serving successful President Bola Tinubu's APC-led government.

Wike, who helped recovered the party, heads a rival faction creating a governmental stand-off that has paralysed the PDP.

He had controversially helped the APC triumph Rivers authorities successful the past statesmanlike predetermination starring to accusations that helium had betrayed the PDP.

But successful the eyes of the instrumentality the faction that helium heads is the morganatic party.

This means that it has been capable to taxable its slate of statesmanlike and parliamentary candidates to the electoral committee leaving the rival faction without immoderate representatives connected the ballot.

Despite the chaos, immoderate die-hard loyalists stay optimistic.

Politician and staunch PDP subordinate Aminu Adamu, portion of the anti-Wike faction, believes a instrumentality to its erstwhile glory is possible.

He cites examples from Thailand and Argentina, wherever parties person bounced backmost aft years successful the wilderness.

"We person seen it hap before," helium tells the BBC. "All we request to bash is enactment our location successful bid and commencement to physique from there.

"If we marque each the indispensable corrections, by 2032 I truly deliberation PDP tin beryllium a large unit again."

Others constituent retired that the enactment inactive has a grassroots web - indispensable to triumph and prolong powerfulness - with offices, activists, supporters and section leaders. But by 2032 it whitethorn beryllium excessively late.

With the enactment successful specified disarray and candidates backed by Wike connected the ballot - voters are improbable to spot them.

Analyst Deji Olarenwaju believes the lone happening that could prevention the once-mighty enactment is an confederation with the African Democratic Congress - present seen arsenic the biggest absorption radical oregon Peter Obi's Nigeria Democratic Congress.

"Because connected their ain they are going nowhere," helium says.