Analysis: Can Josh Pastner break UNLV's NCAA Tournament drought?

UNLV officially announced the hiring of Josh Pastner as its next basketball coach on Tuesday, ushering in yet another restart for the program.

Judging by UNLV’s recent run of basketball coaches, Pastner has his work cut out for him. Marvin Menzies spent three years in Las Vegas and did not make the NCAA Tournament, while T.J. Otzelberger missed the tourney in both of his years at the helm, and Kevin Kruger was fired last week for continuing the drought another four years.

Is Pastner the man to make UNLV relevant in March for the first time in more than a decade?

The résumé

Instead of going with a first-time head coach like Kruger, athletic director Erick Harper seemed to want someone with experience in the top job. Pastner has that, and he has done it at multiple levels, serving seven years at midmajor Memphis and another seven at power-conference Georgia Tech.

Pastner was a young hotshot when he took over at Memphis in 2009 at age 31, and he started with a bang, leading the Tigers to four consecutive NCAA Tournaments. That got him hired at Georgia Tech, where the magic dissipated — Pastner’s teams went 109-114 in seven years there before he was fired in 2023.

Still, he was able to lead the Yellow Jackets to an Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament championship in 2021, which earned Pastner the league’s Coach of the Year award. Overall, Pastner has a career record of 240-167 with five NCAA Tournament appearances (2-5).

That’s a longer track record of success than any UNLV hire since Lon Kruger in 2004. And Pastner is still on the youthful side at 47, so perhaps there is still some upside as he settles into a competitive Mountain West Conference.

Rated rookies

Pastner was a player on Arizona’s 1997 national-championship team and segued into coaching shortly thereafter. His calling card has always been recruiting. He landed some massive prospects during his time at Memphis — his 2011-12 team alone featured five top-100 recruits and four future NBA players — and he even brought multiple NBA guys to Georgia Tech. That’s obviously a valuable skill for a head coach.

The landscape has changed in the two years since Pastner last coached, however. High-school recruiting has been vastly de-emphasized and the transfer portal has taken over as the No. 1 avenue for putting together a roster. Now coaches are opting to spend their time and resources on bringing in impact veterans who can contribute to winning immediately. Can Pastner adapt his team-building strategy to incorporate more portal players?

In a recent podcast appearance, Pastner seemed ready to embrace the name-image-likeness era, pointing out that the portal is more straightforward and less time-consuming for coaches than following prep prospects around the country for years.

“I think it’s way more efficient now,” Pastner said. “You can streamline a lot of stuff. You can save so much more time than ever before, where you were chasing kids for three, four years and not getting them, and it was exhausting to do that and then not get the kid. Those things were gut punches because they were like a family member to you, the time and effort you spent. Now you go right to the source and you know within literally three weeks if you’re getting a kid or not.”

New system

Pastner’s best teams at Memphis were athletic, extremely talented and focused on forcing opponents into high-risk propositions via relentless ball-pressure defense. His 2013-14 squad ranked No. 31 nationally in turnovers forced (14.3 per game), and that translated into efficient offense (76.9 points per game, 44^th in the country).

Once he got to Georgia Tech, it became more difficult to attract NBA talent and the system produced diminishing returns. Pastner did manage to deliver a surprise ACC Tournament championship in 2021, when the Yellow Jackets had the No. 44 offense in terms of efficiency, but they fell off a cliff after that, dropping to No. 277 the following season and No. 226 in 2022-23, a decline that cost Pastner his job.

One issue was a reliance on 2-point shots. His four tournament teams at Memphis shot 3-pointers at a low frequency, often ranking in the bottom 100 nationally while finishing in the top 75 when it came to 2-point attempts. His final team at Georgia Tech attempted 3-pointers on 38.8% of possessions, which ranked No. 135. The previous year the Yellow Jackets were No. 251 at 34.6%.

Coincidentally, that 3-point rate of 34.6% was exactly the same mark UNLV recorded this season, and that ranked the Scarlet and Gray No. 294. It contributed to an inefficient offense and also cost Kruger his job.

We’ll have to see if Pastner’s time away from the game has allowed him to shift his offensive philosophy. His assistant hires will be important in that regard, as an offense designed around 2-pointers is an uphill battle in today’s game.

Thomas decision

Is there a chance D.J. Thomas could be persuaded to stay home and play for Pastner?

Money will likely be the deciding factor, as the rising junior point guard could begin fielding NIL offers from other schools as of Monday. But if UNLV can come in with an NIL deal that is at least competitive, it appears Thomas would be open to considering a return.

One possible impediment: Pastner may not have been the first choice of the Thomas family.

Last week, Thomas tweeted his support for former UNLV assistant Carlin Hartman to get the job, replying to a post about his candidacy by saying, “Let’s goooo coach!” And when it looked like Arkansas State's Bryan Hodgson was in line to accept the job on Monday, Thomas’s father, former UNLV player Dedan Thomas, tweeted in support of his hiring: “He can coach and he can really recruit! Hire him!” Hodgson instead took the job at the University of South Florida.

If Pastner is interested in retaining Thomas and building around him, it would be a good idea to introduce himself to the Thomas family right away and get to work on changing their minds.

Tourney timeline

After taking over for John Calipari at Memphis, it took Pastner a year to recalibrate before leading the Tigers to four consecutive NCAA Tournaments. If he can replicate that kind of run at UNLV, the Scarlet and Gray diehards will be doing backflips.

Pastner’s seven years at Georgia Tech were more of a struggle. Recruiting slowed and he mixed four losing seasons with just one NCAA appearance. Still, given that UNLV will be going on 13 years without a trip to the big dance, fans would probably take the lone bid Pastner produced for the Yellow Jackets.

With the way the game is trending toward transfers and immediate results, UNLV won’t have to wait long to find out which version of Pastner it’s getting.

Mike Grimala can be reached at 702-948-7844 or [email protected]. Follow Mike on Twitter at twitter.com/mikegrimala.