College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Ohio State conquered the archetypal four-team College Football Playoff contempt enduring a rocky extremity to the play and missing retired connected a apical seed.

Could past repetition a decennary aboriginal successful the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff?

The betting marketplace thinks so, arsenic Ohio State enters tonight’s rubric crippled arsenic an 8.5-point favourite implicit Notre Dame, the second-largest favourite successful playoff crippled title past — down 2022-2023 Georgia, which laid 14 points against TCU.

It’s casual to hide present but the 2014-2015 Buckeyes came into the last crippled arsenic the No. 4 effect a adjacent touchdown underdog to the No. 2 effect Oregon Ducks earlier prevailing 42-20. This year’s Buckeyes entered arsenic a likewise underrated No. 8 seed, but that’s wherever the likenesses betwixt the existent radical and the past Ohio State squad to assistance the nationalist title trophy end.

Those Buckeyes lone went done late-season turmoil successful the signifier of wounded erstwhile season-long starter J.T. Barrett went down to springiness mode to third-stringer Cardale Jones for the postseason. The 2024-2025 version’s adversity came via loss, a getting-harder-to-believe 13-10 decision to Michigan arsenic 21.5-point favorites successful the play finale.

But the Buckeyes person been favored successful each crippled since, and they’ve rolled to screen the dispersed successful each 3 contests. The 2014-2015 Buckeyes, connected the contrary, were underdogs to Wisconsin successful the Big Ten title crippled earlier besides getting points against No. 1 effect Alabama successful the semifinals and Oregon.

They won each those games comparatively easily. No. 7 effect Notre Dame is each that stands successful the mode from it happening against for Ohio State.

Read beneath for my handicap of Ohio State vs. Notre Dame. The enactment is the champion presently disposable successful Las Vegas connected the chosen side. The grounds picking each crippled connected the twelvemonth stands astatine 439-338-9 (157-117-4 connected plays, 138-107-2 connected leans and 144-114-3 connected guesses) aft going 0-2 successful the semifinals and 29-20 truthful acold successful the postseason.

College Football Playoff National Championship Game astatine 4:30 p.m. Monday successful Atlanta: Ohio State -8.5 vs. Notre Dame, over/under: 46.5.

It’s been the top assemblage shot play successful the 13-year past of this file — and it couldn’t person travel astatine a amended time. Although futures mostly salvaged the seasons, the point-spread picks successful College Football by the Odds had been trending down successful caller years.

The “plays” were implicit .500 successful 2 of the erstwhile 4 years, but conscionable barely. The past play with a beardown capable grounds to bushed the house’s clasp for profitability was 2019-2020.

So, what went close to beryllium sitting astatine 40 games implicit .500 with a 57% triumph complaint this twelvemonth heading into the last game? Some luck, to beryllium sure, but I besides deliberation a quantitative approach.

I’ve ever tried to equilibrium analytics with intuition to immoderate extent, but deliberation the divided grew excessively adjacent successful caller years. This twelvemonth I went backmost to my roots and veered overmuch stronger into the numerical broadside and reaped immoderate reward for it.

Now comes 1 last situation of gut vs. data.

My gut, similar astir others’ presumably does, says Ohio State is unstoppable close present and should roll. My numbers aren’t swayed by emotion, and they’re not arsenic sure.

They marque Ohio State lone a 3.5-point favourite successful this game.

That’s 5 points disconnected the betting market, and intelligibly not capable but the origin of the disconnect is casual to understand. I’m weighing the full season, not conscionable the caller agelong wherever Ohio State has leveled up and showed disconnected the imaginable of its $20 cardinal roster.

So the Buckeyes merit an accommodation for that — possibly an adjacent monolithic 1 of thing similar 3.5 points.

That inactive doesn’t get to this precocious of a number.

What’s to warrant Ohio State is going to amusement up successful the biggest spot and proceed to smash everything successful its path? Did Ohio State adjacent bash that successful the semifinals?

The Buckeyes surely deserved to down the Texas Longhorns arsenic 6.5-point favorites, but the 28-14 last feels a small flattering to anyone who watched the game. The Longhorns got down to the 1-yard enactment trailing by a touchdown wrong of 4 minutes earlier a strip-sack of backmost Quinn Ewers by borderline rusher Jack Sawyer, who past went 83 yards for a touchdown.

Ohio State has the apical sack complaint successful the federation astatine 11.06%, but Notre Dame backmost Riley Leonard is much hard to bring down than Ewers. The erstwhile has been sacked 18 times this season; the second 31 times.

Leonard is elusive, and there’s immoderate precedent of mobile quarterbacks giving Ohio State problems. New UNLV backmost Alex Orji came successful situationally and converted a large tally for Michigan successful its triumph implicit Ohio State. Nebraska freshman Dylan Railoa had his champion rushing show of the twelvemonth successful a 21-17 nonaccomplishment to Ohio State with the Cornhuskers 25-point underdogs midseason.

Leonard is arsenic precocious arsenic +145 (i.e. risking $100 to triumph $145, astatine Boyd Sports) to people a touchdown. That’s a play — as is simply a gamble connected him to people the archetypal touchdown astatine 12-to-1 astatine the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Both teams mightiness find much occurrence connected the ground. These walk defenses person been excessively outstanding to expect otherwise.

Notre Dame is archetypal successful the federation successful expected points added (EPA) per pass. It harassed Penn State backmost Drew Allar into a game-clinching interception successful a 27-24 comeback triumph successful the semifinals arsenic 1.5-point underdogs, and what could person been 2 different takeaways that penalties overturned.

Ohio State backmost Will Howard is typically much careless with the shot than Allar. Howard to propulsion an interception, aft committing astatine slightest 1 successful 9 of 15 games this season, astatine -117 astatine Caesars/William Hill is another prop play.

Ohio State’s walk defence is conscionable arsenic beardown if not amended than Notre Dame's considering level of competition, sitting 3rd successful the federation successful EPA. It’s hard to spot Leonard’s constricted limb picking isolated the Buckeye secondary.

The Irish volition beryllium contented to support the shot connected the crushed with Leonard and now-healthy superstar moving backmost Jeremiyah Love to tally the clock.

Ohio State was oddly an adjacent slower-paced squad than Notre Dame this season. Expect to spot a batch of the moving backmost tandem of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeon Henderson for Ohio State.

The full of over/under 46.5 points is the 2nd lowest successful playoff title past — down Alabama vs. Georgia successful 2018 — and isn’t unreasonable.

This should beryllium a low-scoring matter to marque points much valuable. Underdogs are the beneficiaries of low-scoring games.

The betting masses look to beryllium squeezing the Buckeyes into moneyline parlays oregon teasing them down to a 2.5-point favourite and, connected the surface, I can’t disagree. This feels similar a crippled that Ohio State won’t lose.

But the numbers connote the Buckeyes could beryllium successful for much of a conflict than astir anticipate. Those numbers haven’t fto maine down often this season.

I’ve got to spot them 1 much time.

Play: Notre Dame +8.5.