Carney faces crucial test after walking away from Trump's deal

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s decision to break off negotiations with President Donald Trump and pursue retaliatory measures marks a significant political test for the Canadian leader. Carney is among the first world leaders to walk away from the White House negotiating table, and the outcome will be closely scrutinized. Both governments attribute the collapse of the tentative agreement to last‑minute changes. Carney’s move also gauges Canadian willingness to endure economic discomfort as Ottawa presses for additional concessions from the United States. Having rejected what he described as Trump’s high‑pressure tactics and opted to counter the latest tariffs, Carney must now persuade Canadians that the short‑term pain justifies standing firm against the administration in hopes of securing a better long‑term arrangement. Analysts warn that the dispute will inflict costs on both sides of the border, with businesses feeling heightened pressure from U.S. duties and Canadian counter‑tariffs. Canada directs roughly 70 percent of its exports to the United States and remains the leading trading partner for several American states, notably Michigan, Kentucky, Indiana and Ohio. Carney entered office championing an “elbows up” approach—a hockey term denoting an assertive stance—promising to defend Canadian interests against a Trump administration intent on leveraging economic pressure for its America First agenda. Polling indicates a segment of the population is prepared to resist. An Abacus Data survey found approximately 36 percent of Canadians favor retaliation to U.S. tariffs, while a Leger poll showed 56 percent want the federal government to adopt a hard line and reject further concessions. In response to the tariffs, many Canadians have curtailed travel to the United States. The resulting boycott has deprived the U.S. of an estimated C$3.3 billion (US$2.35 billion; £1.75 billion) in tourism revenue over the past year. Provincial bans on U.S. alcohol have further strained the sector. According to U.S. government trade statistics, wine exports to Canada fell 78 percent year‑over‑year, representing a loss of about US$357 million. The US distillers association reported similar numbers, noting that provincial restrictions have cut American spirits exports by more than 70 percent. The restrictions have become a source of irritation for the Trump administration. Carney must also convince provinces less directly affected by the trade friction that withdrawing from negotiations is a risk worth undertaking. He is scheduled to meet with those provincial leaders on Saturday to outline the current situation.