College football by the odds: Bowl pick'em Part 1

Notre Dame Fighting Irish running back Jeremiyah Love (4) leaps over Miami Hurricanes defensive back Dylan Day (23) during an NCAA football game on Sunday, Aug. 31, 2025 in Miami. Photo by: ASSOCIATED PRESS

The best team in college football might not be participating in the college football postseason at all.

Notre Dame’s exclusion from the College Football Playoff and its ensuing opt-out of any bowl game have drawn polarizing reactions for the last five days. The betting market can help explain the Irish’s petulance.

This was no ordinary snub; it’s probably the biggest one in playoff history based on probability to win the title.

Only one team in the nation — No. 2 seed Ohio State — would be a surefire favorite over Notre Dame on a neutral field currently. No. 1 seed Indiana would likely open a 1.5- to 2.5-point favorite over Notre Dame, but action could easily flip that line the other way.

That’s a strong possibility to happen, by the way, with Notre Dame having attracted betting steam on a weekly basis moving point spreads as much of a touchdown every week down the stretch of the season.  

The Irish would also be favored against any team playing in the opening round of the CFP regardless of location.

This doesn’t entitle them to a playoff spot, of course. The selection committee must weigh the merits of a team’s resume over strictly its predictive metrics.

But it’s also always bandied about ultimately getting the best teams in the field. Betting odds indicate it’s definitively failed in that pursuit this season by leaving Notre Dame out.

The debate is getting tiresome, however, and games are luckily arriving just in time to rescue football fans from the discourse. Six Football Bowl Subdivision games are scheduled before Friday Dec. 29 when the playoff kicks off with Alabama at Oklahoma — both teams Notre Dame would be favored to beat by more than a touchdown.  

Let’s handicap all of the games’ point spreads below. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 366-322-15 (104-90-6 on plays, 130-104-4 on leans and 132-128-5 on guesses) after going 6-3 on conference championships.      

Army +6.5 vs. Navy in Baltimore, over/under: 38. Noon Saturday in Annapolis, Md. Navy has been the better team on the season as a whole, but Army has shown tremendous improvement over the second half. The Cadets upset UTSA outright to close the season and nearly knocked off Tulane in October. The Midshipmen rank 131^st in the nation in expected points added per play on defense, which is far and away the worst unit in the game this year. Lean: Army +6.5.

LA Bowl at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif.: Boise State -9 vs. Washington, over/under: 52.5. Boise State has not disclosed any opt-outs ahead of kickoff, but rumors are swirling around a number of players including NFL prospect left tackle Kage Casey. Washington should have a fuller roster, and one that’s actually taking this game seriously as a young team looking to take the next step into playoff contention next year.  Lean: Washington -9.

Salute to Veterans Bowl in Montgomery, Ala.: Troy -3.4 vs. Jacksonville State, over/under: 46.5. Troy might be without quarterback Goose Crowder, and has outperformed its analytical profile all season. Jacksonville State is at +0.1 net yards per play on the year while Troy stands at a paltry -1.3 net yards per play. Play: Jacksonville State +3.5.

Cure Bowl in Orlando, Fla.: Old Dominion +6.5 vs. South Florida, over/under: 55.5. South Florida coach Alex Golesh and several members of his coaching staff are already off to Auburn and not participating in the bowl game. A number of players, including star quarterback Byrum Brown, are speculated to be following him. Old Dominion should have a more focused effort, not to mention one that should feature a new-look offense  with dual-threat freshman quarterback Quinn Henicle taking over. Play: Old Dominion +6.5.

68 Ventures Bowl in Mobile, Ala.: Louisiana -3.5 at Delaware, over/under: 57.5. The Ragin' Cajuns caught fire to win their last four games including covering in all but the last one, but this number is at least a couple points inflated if working off a full-season dataset. That’s before even factoring in motivation, where Delaware should be sharp in a postseason game one year into an FBS move, and a potential lingering injury to breakout Louisiana quarterback Lunch Winfield. Lean: Delaware +3.5.

Xbox Bowl in Frisco, Texas: Missouri State -2.5 at Arkansas State, over/under: 56.5. Both sides look like they’ll have strong roster continuity, and Arkansas State was the slightly better team after adjusting for the competition it faced in the Sun Belt Conference. So what’s with all the steam on the Bears that has sent this line all the way from Arkansas State nearing a field-goal favorite to the opposite? For right now, that’s a reason for hesitance but fire away if the RedWolves reach +3. Lean: Arkansas State +3.