College football by the odds: Bowl pick'em Part 2

The first round of the new 12-team College Football Playoff left fans underwhelmed a year ago.

All four favorites of the inaugural opening weekend covered, going on to win by an average of 21.75 points per game.

The outlook for competitive games isn’t much stronger this year, mostly a consequence of two Group of Five conference champions earning automatic bids in No. 11 seed Tulane and No. 12 seed James Madison.

Tulane travels to Oxford, Miss., to face Ole Miss as a 17.5-point underdog. That game will be followed by James Madison traveling to Eugene, Ore., to face Oregon as a 21.5-point underdog, inflating the average point spread of this year’s College Football Playoff first round to -10.5.

Last year’s mean, along with the previous decade of the four-team playoff, was only around -8. Favorites improved to 18-6 straight-up, 16-8 against the spread all-time in opening-round playoff games with a clean sweep last season.

I’m hoping this is the year the trend finally flips — and not primarily because it would provide a better viewing experience. From a betting perspective, it sure looks like the value is on the underdogs at the start of this year’s bracket, at least from my vantage point.

Read below to find my handicaps of the College Football Playoff games along with the next seven bowls. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record picking every game for the reason stands at 368-322-15 (104-90-6 on plays, 132-104-4 on leans and 132-128-5 on guesses) after going 2-0 in the first part of the bowl pick’em.

Myrtle Beach Bowl at 8 a.m. Friday in Conway, S.C., on ESPN: Kennesaw State +3.5 vs. Western Michigan, over/under: 49.5. Fading teams from the Mid-American Conference has been a longtime, mostly lucrative bowl betting strategy, but Conference USA might be significantly worse as the lowest-quality league this year. If that theory proves true, Western Michigan has the better metrics — including sitting at No. 55 in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play to Kennesaw State’s No. 96 — against a tougher slate of opposition. Lean: Western Michigan -3.5.

Gasparilla Bowl at 11:30 a.m. Friday in Tampa, Fla., on ESPN: Memphis +4.5 vs. North Carolina State, over/under: 58.5. Some puzzling steam has knocked this spread down from the opening number of NC State -6. Perhaps prominent opt-outs are feared for NC State, but Memphis is guaranteed to look a lot different with coach Ryan Silverfield and some of his staff departing for Arkansas. Play: NC State -4.5.

College Football Playoff First Round Game at 5 p.m. Friday on ABC, ESPN: Alabama -1.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 40.5. Alabama outplayed Oklahoma from an efficiency standpoint despite a 23-21 loss earlier this season, but Crimson Tide quarterback Ty Simpson threw a game-altering interception that was returned for a touchdown in the game and has only looked worse since. There’s a good chance the earlier-season Heisman candidate is gutting through an injury. Oklahoma is the healthier side all together, and coach Brent Venables’ defense has been the antidote to Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer’s offense with two consecutive outright upsets. Take points either way because this looks like a pick’em. Lean: Oklahoma +1.5.

College Football Playoff First Round Game at 9 a.m. Saturday on ABC, ESPN: Miami +3 at Texas A&M, over/under: 51.5. Miami has the better personnel with future NFL standouts at most position groups; Texas A&M is more trustworthy with better week-to-week consistency and a sharper coaching staff. The thought of backing a Mario Cristobal-coached team on the road against a Mike Elko-led side is nauseating. The hook makes all the difference here — if the line were Texas A&M -3.5 across the board, Miami would be the reluctant pick. But more sportsbooks are currently at -3, and that’s reasonable with the Aggies’ sizable home-field advantage at Kyle Field. Guess: Texas A&M -3.

College Football Playoff First Round Game at 12:30 p.m. Saturday on TNT, truTV, Max: Tulane +17.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 56.5. Tulane closed an 11.5-point underdog against Ole Miss in this same venue earlier this year. Yes, the Green Wave lost 45-10, but they’ve gotten unequivocally better since then. Ole Miss has not upgraded in the same way as it has piled up wins but tailed off from an efficiency standpoint and now must play without coach Lane Kiffin for the first time. Tulane won’t win but should be able to hang around behind late-rising freshman running back Jamauri McClure against a shaky Ole Miss rush defense. Play: Tulane +17.5.

College Football Playoff First Round Game at 4:30 p.m. Saturday on TNT, truTV, Max: James Madison +21.5 at Oregon, over/under: 48.5. The eye test and program reputations could lead anyone to believe that Oregon will name its score; the analytics and a more data-driven process would say this line is overinflated. Maybe it’s a few points less if James Madison didn’t stumble in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, surviving a scare with a 31-14 win over Troy as 24.5-point favorites. It’s difficult to abide in this instance, but I’ve always trusted my numbers more than my intuition, and the former only makes this line Oregon -19. Guess: James Madison +21.5.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl at 11 a.m. Monday in Boise, Idaho, on ESPN: Washington State +2 at Utah State, over/under: 52.5. It’s back to the bowl games with nothing on the line for another spot where I’m forced to provide resistance to the overall market sentiment. The Cougars have taken all the money here after the Aggies opened as high as a 3.5-point favorite, but the Cougars have lost coach Jimmy Rogers to Iowa State, and several players could follow him. Utah State’s continuity should be stronger. Play: Utah State -2.

Boca Raton Bowl at 11 a.m. Tuesday in Boca Raton, Fla. on ESPN: Toledo +8 at Louisville, over/under: 45. No coach has annually underachieved with the talent level on his roster more than Toledo’s Jason Candle, so it’s not a major knock that he’s departed for Connecticut. The Rockets might be without some players too, but the Cardinals have a number of both NFL Draft prospects and injured players at premium positions that are unlikely to play. Play: Toledo +8.

New Orleans Bowl at 2:30 p.m. Tuesday at the Superdome on ESPN: Western Kentucky -4 vs. Southern Miss, over/under: 55.5. Let’s fall back on an identical Conference USA fade for the second time. Southern Miss put up a stronger statistical profile — No. 43 in EPA per play to Western Kentucky’s No. 64 — while playing a tougher Sun Belt Conference schedule. The concern is the Golden Eagles lost coach Charles Huff to Memphis, but they’ve already named a replacement in former offensive coordinator/veteran head coach Blake Anderson, so the downgrade should be minimal. Lean: Southern Miss +4.

Frisco Bowl at 6 p.m. Tuesday in Frisco, Texas, on ESPN: UNLV -4 vs. Ohio, over/under: 62.5. UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea will be the best player on the field, and UNLV’s arsenal of big-play running backs should be able to crack an Ohio defense ranked No. 93 in the nation in EPA per rush defense. The Bobcats played poorly down the stretch of the season, losing three in a row against the spread, and then abruptly fired coach Brian Smith on Wednesday, just days before the bowl appearance. Play: UNLV -4.

Hawaii Bowl at 5 p.m. Wednesday in Honolulu on ESPN: California pick’em vs. Hawaii, over/under: 54.5. This bowl game means everything to the Warriors, who made it their season mission to compete in the postseason for the first time in five years. By contrast, the game means little to the Golden Bears as they transition between coaching staffs. Bishop Gorman High alum-turned Hawaii savior Micah Alejado should light up Christmas Eve on the island. Play: Hawaii pick’em.