College football by the odds: Handicapping every ACC team's win total

Opening betting odds painted the Atlantic Coast Conference as one of the more competitive conference races this season. It hasn’t stayed that way.

The league now features the biggest favorite to win a conference title among the four power conferences, and it’s an awfully familiar name. Clemson is now as low as a -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) favorite to win its ninth ACC championship in the last 11 years.

That’s a major move considering sportsbooks posted the Tigers as high as +250 (i.e. risking $100 to win $250) and virtual co-favorites with Miami to win the ACC at the end of last season.

And it’s not just the conference championship futures where the Orange love has surfaced. Clemson has drawn bets everywhere, including notably in the Heisman Trophy pool despite having never previously produced a winner for the award.

Senior quarterback Cade Klubnik opened as high as 16-to-1 to win the Heisman, but now sits as low as 7-to-1. He’s either the second or third choice at every sportsbook, unanimously behind Texas quarterback Arch Manning and jockeying for position with LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.

Despite their continued reign in the ACC, the Tigers haven’t made much of a splash nationally in recent years. They haven’t won a College Football Playoff game since 2019 and have built a string of disappointing nonconference results.

The betting market says this is the year that changes. Is the optimism warranted? Which teams could stand in Clemson’s way in the ACC?

Read below to find my handicap on every team in the ACC’s win total. Picks are listed in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with lines the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with the sports book noted. This is the final part in a five-part preview series. Check out the first four entries here.

Boston College (over/under 5.5 wins)

The coach-quarterback duo of Bill O’Brien and Grayson James probably belongs in the upper half of the conference hierarchy. There are concerns elsewhere, namely with overall talent and skill-position difference makers, but bowl eligibility still looks more likely than not.

Guess: Over 5.5 wins at +110 (Caesars/William Hill)

California (over/under 5 wins)

Cal has received the opposite of the Clemson treatment and seen seemingly endless amounts of money come in against it. And bettors might still have a little more room to sell on the Bears. Despite Cal attracting former UNLV star receiver Jacob DeJesus, the state of the rest of its roster is poor and not up to power-conference standards.

Guess: Under 5 wins at +130 (Circa Sports)

Clemson (over/under 10 wins)

It’s difficult to want to rush out to bet against a dynastic conference force like the Tigers, but the love in the market may have finally gone too far. Clemson’s league schedule isn’t without its challenges in the ACC — namely a November trip to take on a Louisville team that strong-armed it a year ago — but then it also has a daunting nonconference slate bookended with games versus LSU and South Carolina.

Lean: Under 10.5 wins at -140 (Caesars/William Hill)

Duke (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Blue Devils might be a better team this year but wind up with a worse record than the 9-4 overall mark in coach Manny Diaz’s first season. They seemed to get every break in close games last year, going 6-1 in contests decided by less than a touchdown. Not even a strong transfer class, led by former Tulane quarterback Darian Mensah, figures to tide natural regression.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins at +164 (Boyd Sports)

Florida State (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Seminoles bottomed out last season, going from an undefeated 12-0 record in the 2023 regular-season to a last-place, 2-10 campaign in 2024. History isn’t kind to teams that have fallen off that drastically; they rarely get back into contention quickly.

Lean: Under 7 wins at -115 (STN Sports)

Georgia Tech (over/under 7.5 wins)

Haynes King has emerged as one of the hardest-nosed and exciting quarterbacks in the nation to watch, but there’s not a whole lot around him. The Yellow Jackets are well-coached and physical, but the price has become too prohibitive to back them as there’s nothing to separate them from the rest of the ACC’s middle class.

Guess: Under 7.5 wins at +135 (Caesars/William Hill)

Louisville (over/under 8.5 wins)

The Cardinals are a real threat to win the conference with Southern Cal transfer quarterback Miller Moss and the returning two-headed running back attack of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. The only downside is, they got arguably the toughest conference schedule by having to face Clemson, Miami and SMU including the last two on the road. Still, 10-2 is a distinct possibility.

Play: Over 8.5 wins at -130 (Boomer’s Sportsbook)

Miami (over/under 9 wins)

Coach Mario Cristobal’s teams have consistently underperformed their statistical and talent profiles, a trend that’s likely aligned with his much-publicized game management struggles. His rosters are too strong year after year to not break out with a national championship-caliber team at some point, but this doesn’t look like the year with a relative dearth of weapons and a challenging nonconference schedule.

Guess: Under 9.5 wins at -145 (Boomer’s)

North Carolina (over/under 7.5 wins)

Bill Belichick had clearly slipped in his final few seasons in the NFL, going three consecutive years without a winning record. Expecting him to immediately adjust to a much-different college football landscape at 73 years old might be unrealistic. The Tar Heels need to build toward becoming a contender for a couple years.

Lean: Under 7.5 wins at -140 (SuperBook)

NC State (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Wolfpack have one of the weakest conference schedules, and they have a promising young quarterback in sophomore CJ Bailey. Coach Dave Doeren’s teams have performed best when not much is expected out of them, and this year’s group seems to be getting no buzz coming off a disappointing 6-7 season.

Play: Over 6 wins at -140 (SuperBook)

Pittsburgh (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Panthers lost six in a row to end last season, but injuries were largely to blame. Plus, half of the defeats came by less than a touchdown. They’ve got one of the largest returning production figures in the conference, with the second year of the pairing of quarterback Eli Holstein and offensive coordinator Kade Bell particularly boding well.

Guess: Over 6.5 wins at +135 (Wynn)

SMU (over/under 8.5 wins)

Think of SMU like an enhanced version of Duke — the Mustangs might have better personnel in 2025 but are all but guaranteed not to sniff the heights of last year’s College Football Playoff season. The schedule is too demanding to even consider matching last year’s 11-1 regular-season record realistic with conference games against the ACC’s other three best teams — Clemson, Miami and Louisville — and nonleague tilts with rivals Baylor and TCU.

Guess: Under 8.5 wins at Even money (SuperBook)

Stanford (over/under 3 wins)

No power-conference team — not even Purdue in the Big Ten — is rebuilding as much as Stanford with interim coach Frank Reich taking over on a one-year basis. The Cardinal are likely to be an underdog in every game with a roster that might put them in the bottom half of Group of Five conferences like the Mountain West, Sun Belt and American Athletic.

Play: Under 3.5 wins at -155 (Wynn)

Syracuse (over/under 5.5 wins)

Coach Fran Brown had a remarkable debut 10-3 straight-up season but paid the price with an exodus of players.The Orange produced four NFL Draft picks for the first time in 19 years, and the remaining stars with eligibility sought bigger paydays elsewhere. They’re left with the least experienced roster in the ACC, and they also drew one of the tougher schedules.

Play: Under 5.5 wins at -120 (Circa)

Virginia (over/under 5.5 wins)

It’s difficult to trust a program that has only posted five winning seasons in the past 20 years — and none since 2019 — but the Cavaliers spent big in the transfer portal as suspect coach Tony Elliott looks to save his job. Most sportsbooks have moved to over/under 6.5 wins, but the few stragglers at 5.5 make this an easier call. Given the talent on the roster, 6-6 should be the floor.

Guess: Over 5.5 wins at -170 (STN)

Virginia Tech (over/under 6 wins)

The Hokies were the trendy sleeper at this time a year ago but succumbed to injuries, including to quarterback Kyron Drones, to quickly become an afterthought. Drones is back healthy and seems to have more speed around him. Coach Brent Pry’s three-year tenure has underwhelmed, but his teams have performed historically poorly in close games. If that flips even a little bit, the Hokies could make a much-anticipated leap.

Play: Over 6.5 wins at +140 (Wynn)

Wake Forest (over/under 4.5 wins)

The Demon Deacons are completely shifting schemes under new coach Jake Dickert. It usually takes at least a year or two to get competitive when shifting to a pound-the-ball, run-heavy style — especially at a school without many resources like Wake Forest that needs to strengthen and develop the trenches.

Guess: Under 4.5 wins at -115 (STN)