College football by the odds: Handicapping every Big 12 team's win total

The Big 12 Media Days that took place last summer at Allegiant Stadium will forever live in infamy — just not for the event itself.

By all accounts, the two-day get-together was a smashing success both for the conference and Las Vegas. There’s been much chatter that it will someday return locally even though the Big 12 opted to stay closer to its traditional home in Dallas this year.

But the reason the 2024 edition will never be forgotten was the ill-fated media poll. A selection of media members covering the conference tabbed newcomer Arizona State to finish dead-last.

Instead, the Sun Devils won the Big 12.

It’s become a recurring joke to poke fun at the poll, so much that the Big 12 discontinued its long-running preseason media rankings this year. But the truth is, no one saw Arizona State coming — not even the betting market.

The Sun Devils were as high as 200-to-1 at this time last year to win the Big 12.

Sports books aren’t allowing themselves to make the same mistake this season. The Big 12 again looks like the most competitive major conference, and not a single one of the league’s 16 teams are available at any higher than 80-to-1 to win the league at any shop in Las Vegas.

The betting market is prepared for the chaos that the Big 12 could continue to create.

Read below to find which out teams I’m backing and fading in the Big 12 this season. Picks are listed in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with lines the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with the sports book noted. This is part four in a five-part preview series. Check out the first three here.

Arizona (over/under 5.5 wins)

The Wildcats have one of the easier schedules in the conference, some of the highest returning-production levels and a three-year starting quarterback. Stock is down significantly on erratic junior quarterback Noah Fifita, but it was sky high after an electric freshman campaign. New offensive coordinator Seth Doege might be a match to coax Fifita’s potential back out of him.     

Guess: Over 5.5 wins +110 (Wynn)

Arizona State (over/under 8.5 wins)

The Sun Devils made for an all-time story last year, but that doesn’t mean they didn’t overachieve. They were a handful of plays away from going from 10-2 straight-up in the regular season to 5-7 considering their 6-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They’ll be factor this season, but the close-game luck is going to be virtually impossible to maintain for a second straight season. 

Play: Under 8.5 wins -115 (BetMGM)

Baylor (over/under 7.5 wins)

Sawyer Robertson might be the most underrated quarterback in the nation, and worth a longshot Heisman Trophy bet at odds as high as 100-to-1. Defense is the bigger question for the Bears, but coach Dave Aranda has a history of turning around stop units in short order. A tough schedule, with an opening non-conference one-two punch of Auburn and SMU, is the only concern with backing Baylor.

Lean: Over 7.5 wins +105 (SuperBook)

BYU (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Cougars will continue to bother opponents with their unrelenting defense, but they could wind up with the worst offense in the conference. BYU already looked weak at the skill positions before returning quarterback Jake Retzlaff transferred to Tulane after violating the school’s honor code.

Play: Under 6.5 wins +110 (Caesars/William Hill)

Cincinnati (over/under 6.5 wins)

Mojave High grad Tawee Walker, who previously played at Oklahoma and Wisconsin, is a player to watch at running back but the rest of the roster looks middling. Coach Scott Satterfield has gone 8-16 overall in his first two seasons. Asking him to now nearly match that win total in one season is too much.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins -130 (Boyd Sports)

Colorado (over/under 6 wins)

Full credit to him: Coach Deion Sanders has worked some magic in Boulder, Colo. considering where the Buffaloes were prior to his arrival, but he’s reportedly not been around the program that much this offseason while dealing with health issues. His boasting has diminished drastically, adding fuel to the belief that this will be a rebuilding year with Heisman winner Travis Hunter and eighth-place finisher Shedeur Sanders off to the NFL.

Play: Under 6 wins -110 (SuperBook)

Houston (over/under 6.5 wins)

Coach Willie Fritz is a miracle worker based on his history, including most recently at Tulane, and he has more to work with in his second year at Houston than any previous stop. Reports indicate that former Texas A&M quarterback Conner Weigman is now fully healthy, and he could do some real damage in an offense tailored around his strengths.  

Lean: Over 5.5 wins -188  (Boyd)

Iowa State (over/under 7.5 wins)

There’s no place to go but down for the Cyclones, which are coming off the first 11-win season in school history last year. Like Arizona State, which pasted Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, the Cyclones largely hit the pinnacle by getting the right breaks at the end of games. They went 5-1 in games decided by a touchdown or less, a rate that will be extra difficult to keep up with their defense weakened.

Play: Under 7.5 wins Even money (SuperBook)

Kansas (over/under 7 wins)

Think of Kansas quarterback Jalon Daniels as an upgraded version of how Fifita was described above — once celebrated, now forgotten. If Daniels stays healthy, he should be in line to remind fans why he once drew Heisman buzz. Kansas gets the added benefit of moving back into its home field, Memorial Stadium, after dropping a couple close games played at neutral sites while it was being renovated last season.

Lean: Over 7 wins -110 (Circa)

Kansas State (over/under 8.5 wins)

Other teams are more hyped and, in fairness, might have more upside, but the Wildcats are the class of the league. Not a single position group grades out as in the bottom half of the conference. Throw in an additional bet on Kansas State to win the Big 12 at 6-to-1. There’s only one game — at Utah in the penultimate week of the season — where the Wildcats currently project as an underdog.

Play: Over 8.5 wins -105 (Wynn)

Oklahoma State (over/under 5 wins)

Some respect must be reserved for the adaptability shown and success banked by coach Mike Gundy over a 20-year tenure in Stillwater, Okla. But last year’s Cowboys didn’t look anything like a vintage Gundy-led team throughout a slog of a 3-9 season. This year’s roster largely projects as a downgrade from that group in terms of talent.

Lean: Under 5.5 wins -155 (Wynn)

TCU (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Horned Frogs put together one of the quietest hot streaks in the nation at the end of last year when they won four straight and six of seven. Most of the key players from that stretch are back including quarterback Josh Hoover, wide receiver Eric McAllister and a rising pair of edge rushers in Devean Deal and Zach Chapman.

Play: Over 6.5 wins -165 (STN Sports)

Texas Tech (over/under 8.5 wins)

The over money just keeps pouring in on Texas Tech, to the point where there’s no other choice but to consider providing resistance and betting against it. The Red Raiders have spared no expense in building their roster with billionaire benefactor Cody Campbell’s funds, but crushing the transfer portal never guarantees success. It’s just as often cut the other way. 

Guess: Under 8.5 wins +140 (BetMGM)

UCF (over/under 5.5 wins)

The Knights have changed radically in the offseason with former coach Scott Frost returning to the helm and seeing the largest amount of roster turnover in the conference. Frost won big at UCF in his first tenure, memorably going undefeated in 2017, but hasn’t led a winning season ever since and now must start from scratch.

Lean: Under 6 wins -165 (STN Sports)

Utah (over/under 7.5 wins)

The Utes bottomed out with a 5-7 record after arriving in the Big 12 as favorites to win the conference last year, but has the infrastructure and an upgrade at quarterback (former New Mexico passer Devon Dampier) to bounce back. Action on over 7.5 wins has moved the line to as high as 8.5 victories at other sports books. Attack the few that are still lagging behind at the 7.5 number.

Play: Over 7.5 wins -160 (Boyd)

West Virginia (over/under 5.5 wins)

The Mountaineers’ new-look roster under returning coach Rich Rodriguez is comprised mostly of non-heralded and lower-level players making the move to Morgantown, W.V. There’s a chance Rodriguez taps into his creativity and finds some overperformers but, more likely, the talent gap will be too stark to cut into in his first year back.

Guess: Under 5.5 wins -130 (BetMGM)