College football by the odds: Handicapping every Mountain West team’s win total

The currently constructed Mountain West gets together for one last gathering Wednesday and Thursday at Circa when the conference’s Media Days commence.

This group of 12 teams have stayed together for 13 years — not a bad run in the constantly-fluctuating modern state of college football — but the end is in sight. Five programs — Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State — are set to bail for the Pac-12 season.

The seven remaining schools will welcome four new partners in a move that should weaken what was once the premier non-power conference. There’s an argument the Mountain West still holds that distinction, largely based on Boise State snagging the “Group of Five” conference automatic bid into the first 12-team College Football Playoff last season.     

The Broncos are again considered the frontrunner to pull off the feat in their Mountain West send-off season with odds at as low as +150 (i.e. risking $100 to win $150) to reach the playoff for the second straight year.

Boise State has been the Mountain West’s most successful program since joining the league in 2013, but it hasn’t quite been in runaway fashion like public perception may indicate. The Broncos have won the Mountain West five times in 12 years but could really set themselves apart with one more championship on the way out.

TCU is the only team to win the Mountain West in three consecutive seasons, from 2009-2011 before it then departed for the Big 12. Boise State is looking to make history by matching that run this season.

Read below to see how I project the Broncos and which teams could be their toughest competition. Picks are listed in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with lines the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with the sports book noted. The listed win totals next to each team’s name represent the market consensus price. This is part two in a five-part preview series. Check out part 1, the SEC, here.  

Air Force (over/under 6.5 wins)

The Falcons had historic levels of roster turnover last season and still found a way to post a respectable 5-7 straight-up record by virtue of four straight wins to end the year. That late-season momentum should carry over with a much more seasoned roster, especially in the trenches. Don’t be surprised if coach Troy Calhoun threatens nine wins for a fifth time in six years.   

Play: Over 5.5 wins -168 (i.e. risking $168 to win $100) (Boyd Sports)

Boise State (over/under 9.5 wins)

The Broncos remain the class of the Mountain West and team to beat but making them odds-on favorites to win the conference — as high as -140 — might be a bit of a stretch. Replacing Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty is the headline concern, but navigating the departure of offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter looms just as large. With three tough road games in the first half of the schedule — at South Florida, Air Force and Notre Dame — the only option is to take the high price fading Boise State and hope for regression.  

Lean: Under 9.5 wins +180 (Wynn)

Colorado State (over/under 6 wins)

Colorado State finally broke through with a 6-1 straight-up conference record last year, but the success seems awfully noisy. The Rams had a lot break their way including an ultra-weak schedule and a 3-1 record in games decided by a touchdown or less. They retained quarterback-wide receiver duo Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi and Armani Winfield but experienced major roster turnover virtually everywhere else.

Guess: Under 6 wins +115 (Circa)

Fresno State (over/under 6.5 wins)

Buy stock on Fresno State long term, which made an inspired hire in former North Dakota State coach Matt Entz who should help implement a physical, bullying style. But that’s a 180 from the system in place the last several years and typically doesn’t sync overnight. A challenging opening schedule, including road games at Kansas and Oregon State, also doesn’t bode well.   

Lean: Under 6.5 wins +120 (Caesars/William Hill)

Hawaii (over/under 6 wins)

Yet another offseason full of roster churn makes Hawaii look hard-pressed to capture its first winning regular season since 2019. But at least it has a bona fide golden prospect at quarterback this time around. Micah Alejado had an all-time great high school career at Bishop Gorman and, despite his diminutive stature, showed it might be able to translate to the next level with a near 500-yard performance in his debut start last year.     

Play: Over 5.5 wins -148 (Boyd)

New Mexico (over/under 3 wins)

The Lobos are starting over again with coach Bronco Mendenhall having bailed after one season to be replaced by former Idaho head Jason Eck. Few programs in the country have been less successful than New Mexico, and this year looks particularly challenging for Eck with the second-fewest returning starters (4) in the conference. What’s left is a roster that looks more like Football Championship Subdivision quality.

Play: Under 3.5 wins -144 (Boyd)

San Diego State (over/under 4.5 wins)

The Aztecs’ defense was atrocious last year, but has more reasons for optimism this year including the return of Trey White, the conference’s best edge rusher. Coach Sean Lewis is one of the best tacticians in the Mountain West — especially on offense — and made a big leap to bowl eligibility in his second year at his previous head-coaching spot, Kent State. He’s got a lot pieces to work with at San Diego State.     

Lean: Over 4.5 wins -130 (BetMGM)

San Jose State (over/under 7.5 wins)

San Jose State feasted on a historically weak schedule to go 7-5 straight-up last year in a memorable first campaign under coach Ken Niumatalolo. The Spartans again seem to have a landed a favorable draw this year but there’s no guarantee they’ll just pick up where they left off. They overachieved by most metrics last year and should take a small step back with mediocre roster continuity.

Lean: Under 7.5 wins +105 (Caesars/William Hill)

UNLV (over/under 8.5 wins)

It’s difficult to place the expectations for any first-year coach at nine victories, but Dan Mullen has a number of advantages at UNLV. Most notably, the Rebels’ talent index grades out higher than any non-Boise State side in the Mountain West. There might be some growing pains, but UNLV only projects as a surefire underdog once all season — on Oct. 18 at Boise State.      

Guess: Over 8.5 wins +115 (Circa)

UNR (over/under 3.5 wins)

The Wolf Pack tailed off at the end of last year but showed enough promise over the first two months of coach Jeff Choate’s debut season that they shouldn’t be considered a guaranteed bottom-feeder. And that was with replacement-level quarterback play. They should be more formidable with well-traveled, sixth-year senior Chubba Purdy now healthy.

Lean: Over 3.5 wins -120 (Boyd)

Utah State (over/under 4)

Utah State is an immeasurably better program than New Mexico, and Mendenhall won five games at the latter last season. He’s got more to work with here and added some promising talent through the portal including former Las Vegas High star Miles Davis, who was previously at BYU, at running back. The Aggies have traditionally been one of the better programs in the conference, and could return to that perch in their farewell season after a one-year drop-off.

Play: Over 4 wins -125 (Circa)

Wyoming (over/under 5.5 wins)

The Cowboys looked like a shell of their former selves in their first season without longtime coach Craig Bohl, and there’s not much reason to think anything will be different this year. Bohl had an innate ability to maneuver around Wyoming’s personnel limitations and it’s a big ask to expect replacement/acolyte Jay Sawvel to maintain the same trend. It’s unrealistic to call for a three-win jump from last year.   

Lean: Under 5.5 wins -170 (Caesars/William Hill)