College football by the odds: Handicapping every SEC team’s win total

The sports calendar has flipped, and football season is all but here — at least in Las Vegas.

Nearly every sportsbook in town has a full futures betting menu available for college football. The lone holdouts will surely jump in themselves soon considering football talk will be particularly unavoidable beginning next week when the first of two conferences hosting their media days locally, the Mountain West at Circa, arrives in town. 

The Big Ten follows in two weeks with a media-days extravaganza at Mandalay Bay.

Allegiant Stadium will eventually host one of the first four games of the year, with UNLV’s opener against Idaho State recently rescheduled for Aug. 23’s “Week Zero” slate.  

There’s plenty of work to be done before that for football bettors, however, and I’m here to help. Over the next month, I’ll preview the sport’s five biggest conferences by handicapping every team’s over/under season win total.

The SEC gets us started in what feels like a pivotal year for the league traditionally considered the best in the sport. That reputation is slowly slipping after two consecutive years without a representative in the College Football Playoff National Championship game.

Will that change in the 2025-2026 season, or will the SEC have to wait yet another year? Allegiant will notably host the 2026-2027 championship game, but the SEC surely has its sights on breaking its small slide before then.

Read below to find out which teams I’m most, and least, confident in from the SEC. Picks are listed in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with lines the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side with the sports book noted. The listed win totals next to each team’s name represent the market consensus price.    

Alabama (over/under 9.5 wins)

The Crimson Tide should be better at almost every position group than last year, when they went 9-3 straight-up with two losses by a touchdown or less. The lone exception, perhaps, is at quarterback where they lost third-round NFL Draft pick Jalen Milroe. But there’s buzz around the program that presumed replacement Ty Simpson is a better fit for the system of second-year coach Kalen DeBoer and his reunited offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb. Play: Over 9.5 wins +105 (i.e., risking $100 to win $105) (STN Sports)

Arkansas (over/under 5 wins)

There was widespread surprise across the sport, and even among the fan base, when Arkansas retained coach Sam Pittman for a sixth year. The only winning regular season he’s led with the Razorbacks came in a magical 2021 campaign, and the program’s talent level has diminished since then — especially in the trenches where they try to forge their identity. Play: Under 5.5 wins -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100) (STN)

Auburn (over/under 8 wins)

Perhaps no team in the league upgraded its talent as thoroughly in the offseason as Auburn, which raided the portal and landed the likes of former Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold and former Georgia Tech receiver Eric Singleton. But eight wins is a high bar for a program that hasn’t hit that mark in six years, and a coach in Hugh Freeze who’s looked outmatched in his second SEC stint. Guess: Under 8 wins -110 (Circa Sports)

Florida (over/under 7.5 wins)

Trust in quarterback D.J. Lagway. The Gators still have holes in coach Billy Napier’s make-or-break year, but few if any passers in the nation have a higher ceiling than the sophomore blue-chip recruit. Lagway improved drastically as last season went on, winning four starts in a row to end the year, and is worth a look at 20-to-1 to win the Heisman Trophy. Play: Over 7 wins -140 (STN)

Georgia (over/under 9.5 wins)

The Bulldogs hit the portal harder than ever and should see the positive effects at least on the offensive side where Bishop Gorman graduate and former USC star Zachariah Branch was their biggest get. Winners of two of the last three SEC championships, the Bulldogs are still the team to beat. Guess: Over 9.5 wins -164 (Boyd Sports)

Kentucky (over/under 4.5 wins)

The Wildcats’ profile is upheld by a standard of consistency under coach Mark Stoops — who has posted winning seasons in seven of his last nine years at the helm — but their personnel has slipped drastically in recent years. On paper, this looks like the least-talented team in the SEC. Lean: Under 4.5 wins even money (Circa)

LSU (over/under 8.5 wins)

Few teams have a higher ceiling at quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is a first-round draft prospect, and do-everything linebacker Harold Perkins has the tools to turn into one of the best defensive players in the nation. The Tigers' schedule is daunting, and the win-total decision could come down to a mega Week 1 clash where LSU goes to ACC favorite Clemson as a 3-point underdog. Lean: Over 8.5 wins -134 (Boyd)

Mississippi (over/under 8.5 wins)

Self-proclaimed “Portal King” coach Lane Kiffin did it again in reloading the Rebels with some of the best talent available, including importantly on the offensive line and in the defensive backfield. Ole Miss has gone over 8.5 wins in three of the past four seasons, and it hasn’t dipped below its new baseline in terms of roster quality this year. Play: Over 8.5 wins -120 (Circa)

Mississippi State (over/under 3.5 wins)

The Bulldogs had no chance last season after quarterback Blake Shapen went down with an injury but showed flashes of competency before that, including nearly coming back to knock off eventual Big 12 champion Arizona State on the road. There’s nowhere to go but up defensively, and a soft opening schedule means they could eclipse this number before SEC play even begins. Lean: Over 3.5 wins -145 (Caesars/William Hill)

Missouri (over/under 7.5 wins)

The Tigers built up to last season for years, but they still looked outmatched when stepping up in class with blowout losses in their two toughest games — at Alabama and Texas A&M. This projects as more of a transitional season with question marks at almost every position group. Play: Under 7.5 wins -150 (BetMGM)

Oklahoma (over/under 7.5 wins)

One of the biggest problems with the new superconference setups are imbalanced schedules. The Sooners could have conceivably been a dark horse SEC championship threat with a weaker slate but drew arguably the toughest schedule in the nation. Even if the incoming Washington State duo of quarterback John Mateer and offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle prove up to the challenge in a tougher conference, Oklahoma’s defense should decline. Guess: Under 7.5 wins -140 (Circa)

South Carolina (over/under 7 wins)

Returning quarterback LaNorris Sellers gives the Gamecocks hope, but last year’s level-up to a 9-3 straight-up regular season had more to do with an elite defense. That’s going to be impossible to maintain after losing five NFL Draft picks. Play: Under 7.5 wins -120 (STN Sports)

Tennessee (over/under 8.5 wins)

This season will be the true test of whether coach Josh Heupel’s wide-open offensive scheme is as “plug-and-play,” as some have suggested. With the drama leading to quarterback Nico Iamaleava’s late, abrupt transfer to UCLA, every offensive spot has experienced major turnover. Taking a season to regroup while breaking in a new, young core would be natural. Guess: Under 8.5 wins -128 (Boyd)

Texas (over/under 9.5 wins)

The Longhorns were dominant up front last season but almost every player on both sides of the ball responsible for the success went in the draft. Sophomore quarterback Arch Manning is going to have to be every bit as impactful as his famed uncles for Texas to live up to this year’s lofty expectations. It could happen, but there hasn’t been enough evidence yet to suggest he’s ready to hit those marks immediately. Lean: Under 10 wins -125 (STN) 9.5 +160

Texas A&M (over/under 8 wins)

The Aggies’ utter collapse to a depleted Southern Cal side in last December’s Las Vegas Bowl is a tough sight to erase from memory and casts some doubts on second-year coach Mike Elko’s reputation as a miracle worker. That probably shouldn’t be reason enough to influence this year’s handicap, but something has to serve as a tiebreaker for a line that looks exactly right. Guess: Under 8 wins Even money (Circa)

Vanderbilt (over/under 5.5 wins)

Last season was one to remember for the Commodores as they finished with a winning record and won a bowl game for the first time in more than a decade. The same cast of characters returns led by quarterback Diego Pavia, but they can’t bank on having the same amount of close-game and turnover luck. Teams that break through in such a major way one season tend to regress to the mean in the next. Lean: Under 5.5 wins -160 (Circa)