College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of conference championships

The conference championship games in the sport’s two preeminent leagues have taken a lot of flak since the advent of the 12-team College Football Playoff last season.

Many have wondered if there’s any purpose left to the Big Ten and SEC Championship Games, and if it even really benefits the best teams to play in them.

Those remain valid concerns long-term, but there’s far more on the line in this year’s championship week than last year’s — especially in the Big Ten.

No one can throw the “pointless” tag on a showdown between the only two undefeated teams in the nation, No. 1 Ohio State and No. 2 Indiana, taking place at 5 p.m. Saturday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

The winner will earn the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff, a more advantageous spot after rule changes this offseason to prevent a scenario like last year when eventual national champion Ohio State drew the No. 5 seed.

The winning team will also almost assuredly produce the Heisman Trophy winner. The odds shifted after Week 14 to paint the award largely as a two-man race between Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who’s +115 (i.e. risking $100 to win $115), and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin, who’s +155 (i.e. risking $100 to win $155).

The former has been the favorite for weeks now but likely needs a winning effort over the Buckeyes to become the first Hoosier to ever win the trophy. Sayin definitely needs to defeat the Hoosiers to become the first Buckeye since Troy Smith in 2006 to claim the Heisman.

A small scenario exists where Mendoza has a huge game in a loss to hold on, or both quarterbacks struggle to open the door for someone like Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, who’s +340, to swoop in.

But, in all likelihood, the 2025 Big Ten Championship Game will determine both the Heisman Trophy and the easiest path to a national championship.

From the top of the sport to the bottom, conference championship games still matter at least this season.

Read below for handicaps on the point spread of all of them. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 360-319-15 (102-89-6 on plays, 128-103-4 on leans and 130-127-5 on leans) after going 40-27 in Week 14.

Conference USA Championship Game: Kennesaw State -1.5 at Jacksonville State. Kennesaw State outgained Jacksonville State by 128 yards, 14 first downs and 1.1 yards per play in a 35-26 loss as 3.5-point favorites in this same venue three weeks ago. The Owls were just undone by four turnovers while the Gamecocks had none. The former was too steady the rest of the year and well-coached by Jerry Mack to make that many mistakes again. Lean: Kennesaw State -1.5.

Sun Belt Championship Game: Troy +22.5 at James Madison. The Dukes are on a heck of a run especially offensively but their explosiveness has come and gone throughout different spurts of the season. To lay this large of a number in a conference championship game, more consistency is needed in that department. Troy remains outmatched, however, and there’s no reason to consider betting it at anything less than +24. Guess: Troy +22.5.

American Athletic Championship Game: North Texas -3 at Tulane. I can’t get anywhere near this number and actually make Tulane a small favorite at home. North Texas’ offense is off-the-charts efficient, but it has holes elsewhere, most notably in rush defense. That should be an exploitable edge for the Green Wave given the late-season emergence of freshman running back Jamauri McClure. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff is mobile too, and Tulane is more solid across the whole roster. Play: Tulane +3.

Mountain West Championship Game: UNLV +3.5 at Boise State. The season-long sample screams that this spread is too small. The last month of games would say UNLV is the better team. Recency bias might be alright in this scenario given Boise State’s injury situation, highlighted by the loss of quarterback Maddux Madsen who will return for this game but potentially not at 100%, and UNLV’s defensive uptick after settling into a complex scheme. Lean: UNLV +3.5.

MAC Championship Game: Miami (Ohio) +2.5 at Western Michigan. Western Michigan is superior by most all-encompassing metrics — including sitting 49^th in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per play to its opponent’s 92^nd — and those statistics were accumulated before Miami (Ohio) had to turn to an emergency quarterback option. RedHawks freshman passer Thomas Gotkowski has actually performed well following starter Dequan Finn bizarrely leaving the program, but two outings against subpar defenses isn’t enough to label him as fully trustworthy. Lean: Western Michigan -2.5.

Big 12 Championship Game: BYU +13.5 vs. Texas Tech in Arlington, Texas. Texas Tech closed a 13.5-point favorite at home against BYU a month ago. Yes, the Red Raiders rolled 29-7 but it’s a big ask to attach the same point spread in a game with higher stakes on a neutral field. The Cougars were more competitive in the second half of the first game with the Red Raiders and seemed to figure some of their early troubles out. Still, the line needs to go to BYU +14 to confidently fire a bet. Lean: BYU +13.5.

SEC Championship Game: Georgia -2 vs. Alabama in Atlanta. Alabama has been more consistent than Georgia on a week-by-week basis. Georgia’s top level, which it has reached more frequently down the stretch of the season, is higher than anything Alabama has shown. That makes this a tricky matchup to handicap but, as a tiebreaker, one factor might continue to be undervalued. Georgia deserves a semihome power-rating designation for playing at Mercedes-Benz Stadium and, for what feels like the umpteenth year, the conference championship line doesn’t reflect that. Guess: Georgia -2.

ACC Championship Game: Duke +3.5 at Virginia in Charlotte. Virginia was worth a small bet at the -2.5 price that briefly sprung up in a couple shops around town Saturday night when this joke of a championship matchup solidified. But the line has now moved into a more appropriate place. Blue Devils quarterback Darian Mensah might be the best player of the field, but the Cavaliers have a more talent-rich roster from top to bottom. Guess: Virginia -3.5.

Big Ten Championship Game: Indiana +6 at Ohio State in Indianapolis. Indiana has lost one regular season game in two seasons under Curt Cignetti — albeit 38-15 to Ohio State as 10.5-point underdogs last year — and won by an average of 31 points per game. It’s baffling that the perception of the Hoosiers, which therefore appears to have extended into the betting market, is that they’re still a tier below college football’s true elites like Ohio State. There’s no statistical evidence that’s the case, and no statistical evidence that Indiana should be more than a field-goal underdog in this spot. Play: Indiana +6.