College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 11 game

The conventional wisdom all college football season has been that the teams at the top of the sport are jumbled with no one standing out above the pack.

That talk may now need to cease. The defending national champion Ohio State Buckeyes have started to separate, both on the field and in local sportsbooks.

Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin has leapt everyone in the Heisman Trophy market after a near-flawless performance in a 38-14 win over Penn State as closing 18-point favorites last week. Sayin completed 20 of 23 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns.

He’s now +180 (i.e. risking $100 to win $180) to win the Heisman, ahead of Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza at +260 and Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson at +360.

The Buckeyes also nudged into a tier of their own to win the College Football Playoff at +240 with the Hoosiers the next choice at +475.

All of the movement sure looks justified when looking a little closer at the run Ohio State has put together. It’s one of four remaining undefeated teams in the nation — along with Indiana, Texas A&M and BYU — but the lone side that’s also perfect against the spread.

Ohio State has now covered 12 straight games dating back to last year’s College Football Playoff run.

The Buckeyes’ offense might have started the season relatively slow, but Sayin and Co. are now operating as lethally as the team's defense that’s looked like the best in the country from Week 1.

None of this means they’re guaranteed to roll all the way to another title, but it is now fair to say there’s a definitive team to beat. The landscape isn’t as wide open as once perceived; it’s going to take an upset to knock off Ohio State.

Read below for my picks on every Week 11 game in the Football Bowl Subdivision including Ohio State’s trip to Purdue as 28.5-point favorites where it will look to extend the nation’s longest covering streak. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 223-223-11 (70-70-5 on plays, 79-69-4 on leans and 74-84-2 on guesses.

Big Games

Northwestern +14 at USC, over/under: 50.5. The Trojans’ offense looked awful in last week’s 21-17 win at Nebraska as 7-point favorites, but the slide shouldn’t last for long. Even if Las Vega native star quarterback Jayden Maiava continues to struggle, USC has the athletes to overwhelm Northwestern at all the skill positions like running back King Miller and the wide receiver duo of Ja’Kobi Lane and Makai Lemon. Play: USC -14.

Tulane +6.5 at Memphis, over/under: 55.5. This feels something like an AAC elimination game after Tulane’s inexplicable 48-26 loss at UTSA as closing 6.5-point favorites last week. But the Green Wave didn’t play all that poorly from a play-by-play efficiency standpoint; they just made too many mistakes including committing five turnovers. If coach Jon Sumrall is as shrewd as a reputation that has him in discussions for all the big job openings, he should be able to use the sloppiness to refocus his team. Play: Tulane +6.5.

Georgia -7.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 57.5. This number looks just about right, especially considering Mississippi State has defied the market all year with the second best against the record in the nation at 8-1. Georgia is harder to trust at 3-5 versus the number. But the home Bulldogs must be more worn down after three straight physical games decided by a touchdown or less while the visiting version is just one week removed from a bye.  Guess: Georgia -7.5.

BYU +9.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 53.5. It took a couple drives but once Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton settled back in off of injury last week, the offense started to regain its tremendous early-season form. BYU has stayed undefeated by dominating the line of scrimmage, but that won’t be possible against Texas Tech. Play: Texas Tech -9.5.

Texas A&M -7 at Missouri, over/under: 48.5. The spread adjusted three or four points after Missouri lost quarterback Beau Pribula but that might not be enough considering replacement Matt Zollers is a true freshman who started the year as an emergency option. This is not an ideal defense to make a debut start against, not with Texas A&M edge rusher Cashius Howell bound to bring consistent pressure. Play: Texas A&M -7.

Oregon -6 at Iowa, over/under: 43. Iowa always had the defensive ability to hang with any team, but the offense has slowly started to come around to respectable territory this season. Even if quarterback Mark Gronowski stays shaky, Hawkeye running backs Kamari Moulton and Xavier Williams should be able to test a mediocre Ducks rush defense. Play: Iowa +6.

LSU +11 at Alabama, over/under: 50. Alabama has won all five of its SEC games, but by an average of only 10 points per game, and LSU, at least defensively, is a tougher matchup than most teams in the span. Teams have performed exceptionally well under interim coaches this year, and LSU’s fiery Frank Wilson fits the bill as someone who could build on the trend. Guess: LSU +11.

Navy +25.5 at Notre Dame, over/under: 56.5. Navy’s numerous defensive shortcomings have led to five straight against-the-spread losses for the Midshipmen. They’ve also failed to cover 5 of the last 6 games in the series against Notre Dame including last year’s 51-14 beatdown as 14-point underdogs. This number looks correct, but it’s hard to have much confidence in Navy given those factors. Guess: Notre Dame -25.5.

Big Plays

Massachusetts +10 at Akron, over/under: 49. Akron actually has a handful of difference-makers including former NC State quarterback Ben Finley; Massachusetts has none. The market has difficulty finding the bottom for the worst teams, and the Minutemen look historically bad. Play: Akron -10.

Southern Miss -6 at Arkansas State, over/under: 56.5.  Let’s trust in Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor the second straight week in this section. The junior is playing as well as any Group of Five conference quarterback, and is creating enough explosive plays to keep up with the more well-rounded Southern Miss side. Play: Arkansas State +6.

Air Force +3 at San Jose State, over/under: 67. This should be one of the highest-scoring games of the week with a pair of unstoppable offenses and helpless defenses. In shootouts like that, take the more talented side as San Jose State is clearly superior in the skill positions with players like wide receiver Danny Scudero. Play: San Jose State -3.  

Wake Forest +6.5 at Virginia, over/under: 48. Yes, Virginia is fortunate to be in control of the ACC championship race after winning four straight games by a touchdown or less. No, the Cavaliers are not so overrated that they belong to be priced as a midtier team in the conference. They’re still more complete than most of their peers including Wake Forest, which has the nation’s No. 110 ranked offense by EPA. Play: Virginia -6.5.

Florida -3 at Kentucky, over/under: 43.5. It wasn’t that long ago that the Gators had beaten the Wildcats 30 years in a row — and some of those Kentucky teams weren’t at as big of a disadvantage talent-wise as this year’s group. This is a discount for how poorly Florida’s season has gone, but it hasn’t quit as evidenced by last weeks’ 24-20 near-miss against Georgia as 7-point underdogs in interim coach Billy Gonzales’ debut. Play: Florida -3.

Nebraska +2.5 at UCLA, over/under: 44.  Cornhuskers quarterback Dylan Raiola is out for the year with a broken leg, and freshman backup TJ Lateef doesn’t look ready to fill in without major drop-off. This looks like the final winnable game on the Bruins’ schedule, and they’ll push diligently to get it while fresh coming off a bye. Play: UCLA -2.5.

Other Games

Play: Houston +1.5 at UCF

Play: Georgia Southern +6.5 at Appalachian State

Play: Wisconsin +11.5 vs. Washington

Lean: Auburn +7.5 at Vanderbilt

Lean: Middle Tennessee +1.5 vs. Florida International

Lean: SMU -10.5 at Boston College

Lean: Marshall +13.5 vs. James Madison

Lean: Rutgers +1.5 vs. Maryland

Lean: Miami (Ohio) +3.5 at Ohio

Lean: UAB +3 at Rice

Lean: Ohio State -28.5 at Purdue

Lean: Army -6.5 vs. Temple

Lean: Louisiana Tech -4.5 at Delaware

Guess: Jacksonville State -1 at UTEP

Guess: North Carolina -8.5 vs. Stanford

Guess: Florida Atlantic -3.5 vs. Tulsa

Guess: Toledo -14 vs. Northern Illinois

Guess: New Mexico State +9.5 vs. Kennesaw State

Guess: Eastern Michigan -1.5 vs. Bowling Green

Guess: Penn State +16 vs. Indiana

Guess: Miami -28 vs. Syracuse

Guess: UTSA +14 at South Florida

Guess: Liberty -7.5 vs. Missouri State

Guess: Duke -8.5 at Connecticut

Guess: Georgia State +7.5 at Coastal Carolina

Guess: Louisville -19 vs. California

Guess: UNR +10.5 at Utah State

Guess: TCU -6.5 vs. Iowa State

Guess: West Virginia -6.5 vs. Colorado

Guess: Kansas +6 at Arizona

Guess: UNLV -6 at Colorado State

Guess: East Carolina -28.5 vs. Charlotte

Guess: Texas State -2.5 at Louisiana

Guess: Hawaii +7.5 vs. San Diego State

Guess: Clemson -2 vs. Florida State

Guess: Oregon State -19 vs. Sam Houston

Guess: Ball State -2.5 vs. Kent State