College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 12 game

Texas and Oklahoma probably thought they were done competing this year at the conclusion of their annual Red River Rivalry showdown on Oct. 11 in Dallas.

That hasn’t turned out to be the case as the season has progressed.

While the longtime adversaries will almost certainly not clash on the field again, they’re currently jockeying for position against each other in an effort to earn what might be the final College Football Playoff at-large spot.  

CFP rankings are now released every Tuesday night, spurring dissection and discussion far and wide but the betting market implies it all might be unnecessary.

The picture is rather clear by the odds. Four teams at Caesars/William Hill are such big favorites to reach the 12-team field that odds aren’t even currently available — Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M and Ole Miss.

The Rebels may look odd next to those three undefeated sides given their loss at Georgia, but they only have two games left — against Florida this week and Mississippi State in two weeks. They’re currently double-digit favorites in both, and could almost surely still drop one and make the bracket with two losses in the SEC.  

The odds paint five other teams as highly-likely inclusions — Georgia as a -2000 (i.e. risking $2,000 to win $100) favorite, Alabama as a -1600 favorite, Texas Tech as a -1000 favorite, Oregon as a -350 favorite and Notre Dame as a -350 favorite.

That leaves three open spaces with two going to conference champions — likely the ACC winner and either the American Athletic or Sun Bely — as automatic bids.

So, the true bubble teams set up as Texas at +180 (i.e. risking $100 to win $180), Georgia Tech at +200, Oklahoma at +250, Utah at +250, BYU at +300 and Vanderbilt at +300.

Texas and Oklahoma have the best chance at boosting their resumes this week with trips to take on Alabama and Georgia, respectively, as 6.5-point underdogs.

The Longhorns rocked the Sooners 23-6 as 2.5-point underdogs earlier this year, but the war isn’t over yet.   

Read below for my picks on every Week 12 game in the Football Bowl Subdivision including Oklahoma at Alabama and Texas at Georgia. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 250-244-14 (79-74-6 on plays, 83-74-4 on leans and 88-96-4 on leans)

Big Games

Notre Dame -10.5 at Pittsburgh, over/under: 55. Pittsburgh freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel is a great story going from an overlooked high school prospect a year ago to an ACC standout this season, but look back at the defenses he’s torn apart. The Panthers’ schedule leaves a lot to be desired. Notre Dame is the most complete team in the nation outside of Ohio State. I’ve been betting it every week since the Texas A&M loss, and there’s still room to continue that approach here.  Play: Notre Dame -10.5.

Oklahoma +6.5 at Alabama, over/under: 46.5. Alabama is the better team on the whole, but Oklahoma’s defense is the best unit taking the field at Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday afternoon. Oklahoma coach Brent Venables’ defensive plan stumped Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer last year in a 24-3 victory as 14-point underdogs, and there’s no reason he can’t keep finding success to keep it close this year. Guess: Oklahoma +6.5.

Virginia +6.5 at Duke, over/under: 58.5. Virginia’s offense fell apart in last week’s 16-9 loss to Wake Forest as 6.5-point favorites after quarterback Chandler Morris went down with an apparent concussion. Stay tuned on his status for this week. It seems unlikely Morris will play but this line will crash at the word of any positive news and there’s been precedent of quarterbacks clearing college football’s concussion protocol in a week, like Texas’ Arch Manning two weeks ago.  Lean: Virginia +6.5.

Iowa +6.5 at USC, over/under: 49.5. The Hawkeyes’ pass defense ranks third in the nation by expected points added (EPA) per play. It’s the rare unit capable of matching up with the Trojans’ high-flying aerial attack, but this is one of many games this week where I’d want the spread to reach +7 to consider a bet on the underdog. Guess: Iowa +6.5.

Florida +17 at Ole Miss, over/under: 54.5. If only there was a precedence of a Florida team that everyone accused of quitting on the season beating Ole Miss out of nowhere. Oh, that’s right; it happened last year when the Gators effectively killed the Rebels’ playoff chances with a 24-17 victory as 14-point underdogs. Florida deserves a negative hit to its power rating for navigating a lost season, but this is a bit much when the line was 9.5 points lower a week ago.  Play: Florida +17.

Utah -10 at Baylor, over/under: 61. The Bears are coming off a 30-3 victory over a decent UCF team as 3-point favorites and a highly beneficial bye week, but still aren’t getting any more respect from the betting market. It’s a flawed team, but also an imminently dangerous one with the explosive-play ability with quarterback Sawyer Robertson and his collection of deep targets. Play: Baylor +10.

Texas +6.5 at Georgia, over/under: 47.5. Some may argue Texas’ offense is the weakest unit in this game, but most advanced statistics would say it’s actually Georgia’s defense. The Bulldogs rank 111^th in the nation in defensive EPA per pass. It’s hard forgetting Georgia’s pair of wins over Texas last year where it dominated up front, but the latter is coming off a bye and might be more talented overall this season. Guess: Texas +6.5

TCU +6.5 at BYU, over/under: 52.5. The Horned Frogs are inconsistent — see last week’s inexcusable 20-17 loss to Iowa State as 7.5-point favorites — but their highs are better than the steadiness the Cougars have established all season. TCU sits at +0.9 net yards per play to BYU’s +0.7 net yards per play despite having faced a tougher schedule. Play: TCU +6.5

Big Plays

Arizona +6.5 at Cincinnati, over/under: 56.5. Arizona has been hit or miss, but its explosiveness has been there more often than not with quarterback Noah Fifita’s big arm and a deep rotation of shifty running backs. Cincinnati’s overperforming defense sets up as a likely victim. Play: Arizona +6.5.

Oregon State -1 at Tulsa, over/under: 48. Few final scores all season will go down as more misleading than Oregon State’s 21-17 loss to Sam Houston as 21-point favorites last week. The Beavers led 17-0 and had a 217 total yard advantage but gave up a kickoff return touchdown and a punt block return touchdown. They’re down bad, but their roster is still superior to Tulsa’s rebuilding mishmash. Play: Oregon State -1.

Penn State -6.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 50. Penn State’s efforts the last two weeks against Ohio State and Indiana show they haven’t quit under interim coach Terry Smith. Quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer, who took over for the injured Drew Allar, has even shown sure signs of progress. Michigan State might be in a worse position mentally riding six straight losses. Play: Penn State -6.5.

Texas State +6.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 65. Few teams in the nation have been as underachieving as the 3-6 Bobcats, which find ways to lose on a weekly basis despite dominating the box score. That luck tends to even out unless a team is particularly terribly coached, and too many speak too highly of Texas State’s G.J. Kinne to suspect that issue.   Play: Texas State +6.5.

Middle Tennessee +13.5 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 56.5. This is a bottom-five team in the nation in the Blue Raiders traveling to take on consistently competitive side in the Hilltoppers set up for a chance at the Conference USA title. So why is money coming in against the latter? Maybe it has something to do with the lingering injury to quarterback Maverick McIvor, but backup Rodney Tisdale has shown to be just as efficient if not better in a pair of starts. Play: Western Kentucky -13.5.

Utah State +5.5 at UNLV, over/under: 71.5. Utah State deserves a lot of credit for being on the verge of bowl eligbility in coach Bronco Mendenhall’s first season with a transitional roster, but it should be outgunned from a talent perspective against UNLV. If the defensive improvement the Rebels showed in last week’s 42-10 win at Colorado State as 5.5-point favorites is real, they could bank a second straight blowout. Play: UNLV -5.5.

Other Games

Play: Navy +10.5 vs. South Florida

Play: Akron -5.5 vs. Kent State

Play: Western Michigan +2 vs. Ohio

Play: New Mexico -14 vs. Colorado State

Play: Fresno State -3.5 vs. Wyoming

Lean: Kennesaw State -3 at Jacksonville State

Lean: Miami -14.5 vs. NC State

Lean: Washington -16.5 vs. Purdue

Lean: UAB +19.5 vs. North Texas

Lean: LSU -4.5 vs. Arkansas

Lean: Clemson +3.5 at Louisville

Lean: South Alabama -3.5 at Louisiana-Monroe

Lean: Tennessee -38.5 vs. New Mexico State

Lean: Boise State +3 at San Diego State

Lean: Louisiana Tech +7.5 at Washington State

Lean: Georgia State +7.5 vs. Marshall

Lean: Florida State -13.5 vs. Virginia Tech

Lean: James Madison -20 vs. Appalachian State

Lean: Ohio State -31.5 vs. UCLA

Lean: Memphis +3 at East Carolina

Lean: West Virginia +11.5 at Arizona State

Lean: Mississippi State +7 at Missouri

Lean: Massachusetts +11.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Lean: Florida Atlantic +18 at Tulane

Lean: UCF +24 at Texas Tech

Lean: Wake Forest -6 vs. North Carolina

Guess: Coastal Carolina +3 at Georgia Southern

Guess: Northwestern +11.5 vs. Michigan

Guess: Boston College +16.5 vs. Georgia Tech

Guess: Central Michigan -2 vs. Buffalo

Guess: Oregon -24 vs. Minnesota

Guess: Texas A&M -18.5 vs. South Carolina

Guess: Florida International +3 at Liberty

Guess: Oklahoma State +20.5 vs. Kansas State

Guess: Wisconsin +31 at Indiana

Guess: Sam Houston +9 vs. Delaware

Guess: Illinois -14 vs. Maryland

Guess: Eastern Michigan -2.5 at Ball State

Guess: Toledo -3 at Miami (Ohio)

Guess: Troy +11 at Old Dominion

Guess: Connecticut -7 vs. Air Force

Guess: Missouri State -4 vs. UTEP

Guess: UNR +10 vs. San Jose State

Guess: Charlotte +18 vs. UTSA