College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 13 game

Georgia’s offense looked limited to the point of fans calling for the firing of coordinator Mike Bobo and questioning the team not looking for a quarterback other than Gunnar Stockton at the beginning of the season.

The Bulldogs’ defense wasn’t much better, appearing to be a far cry from the versions that had produced an endless stream of NFL standouts over the last half-decade.

Both units sure appear to have come a long way by Week 12, as Georgia dismantled Texas 35-10 as closing 3.5-point favorites in a primetime game.

The team that eliminated Georgia in last year’s College Football Playoff, Notre Dame, has shown a comparable recent uptick.

The Irish lost their first two games, but have since run off eight straight wins with a 25.6-point average margin of victory. They’d currently only be a surefire underdog to a single team in the country — defending national champion Ohio State — with neutral-site spreads against the likes of Indiana and Georgia right around pick’em.

Those are the two most notable examples at the top of college football, but the sport is littered with teams that have come on — or fallen off — in a major way over the last three months.

A handicapper’s biggest challenge at this point of the season might be deciding how to weight recent returns with the larger year-long sample.  

More data points are always preferred in general, but relevance from early-season results can be called into question with teams that have notably evolved or downgraded.

I’ll do my best at solving the equation below by handicapping the 60 games between Football Bowl Subdivision opponents in Week 13. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 286-266-14 (88-80-6 on plays, 94-85-4 on leans and 104-101-4 on leans)      

Big Games

Rutgers +30.5 at Ohio State, over/under: 56.5. The Buckeyes’ season-spanning covering streak has ended but only via backdoor cover in a 34-10 victory over Purdue as 28.5-point favorites. They bounced back in style in pasting UCLA 48-10 as 33-point favorites last week, and Rutgers isn’t any tougher of an opponent. That makes it extra strange that this line is the moving the Knights’ direction after opening at Ohio State -31.5. Lean: Ohio State -30.5.  

Missouri +8.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 42.5. Tigers freshman quarterback Matt Zollers is 15-for-37 with 189 passing yards in two starts since taking over for the injured Beau Pribula. That’s not going to cut it against a ferocious Oklahoma defense. Tread cautiously in case Pribula returns ahead of schedule, but this isn’t a game where Missouri can rely solely on its rushing attack considering Oklahoma is second in the nation in expected points added (EPA) per rush defense. Guess: Oklahoma -8.5.

Louisville +3.5 at SMU, over/under: 52.5. Play this game three weeks ago — with Louisville on a three-game win streak and SMU coming off a grisly 13-12 loss at Wake Forest — and the Cardinals are the favorite. Some adjustment was necessary but the Cardinals are still superior talent-wise and shouldn’t be counted out from bouncing back from a two-game losing streak. Play: Louisville +3.5.

USC +9.5 at Oregon, over/under: 60.5. The USC defense is the clear weak link among all the personnel units squaring off in this game. The Trojans have held an athletic advantage against almost every team they’ve played this season, but that won’t be the case against a young Ducks’ side still teeming with gamebreakers despite a troublesome injury list. Lean: Oregon -9.5.

Kentucky +10 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 53.5. Add Kentucky to the group of teams that look transformed down the second half of the season. The Wildcats might in fact be the best example coming off three straight victories and covers. Freshman quarterback Cutter Boley has improved tremendously, and they have one of the better defensive backfields in the SEC led by safeties Ty Bryant and Cam Dooley. Lean: Kentucky +10.

Pittsburgh +2.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 62.5. Both teams looked terrible last week, with Pittsburgh falling 37-15 to Notre Dame as 13-point underdogs and Georgia Tech narrowly escaping Boston College 36-34 as 16.5-point favorites. It’s easier to trust the duo of Georgia Tech coach Brent Key and quarterback Haynes King than Pittsburgh counterparts Pat Narduzzi and Mason Heintschel in a turnaround situation. Lean: Georgia Tech -2.5.

BYU -2 at Cincinnati, over/under: 54.5. Level of physicality at the line of scrimmage is a difficult factor to measure, but it seems like BYU has pushed around every team it’s played, with the exception of Big 12 behemoth Texas Tech. The trenches aren’t a strength of Cincinnati’s so the home team could be in for a long day.  Lean: BYU -2.

Big Plays

Old Dominion -12.5 at Georgia Southern, over/under: 62. Old Dominion has been highly inconsistent all year, looking like a Group of Five power one week and then a sloppy mess the next, so there’s reason to be skeptical of its two-game winning and covering streak. Georgia Southern’s offense has been steadily rising behind the aggressive arm of quarterback JC French. Play: Georgia Southern +12.5.

UNR +6.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 41. This line was shaping up to be higher but the Wolf Pack’s power rating got a boost via a 55-10 shellacking of San Jose State as 8.5-point underdogs last week. The Spartans gave them the game, starting out with a pick-six and then committing four more turnovers. Wyoming should, at the very least, proceed sharper than that at home. Play: Wyoming -6.5.

Arkansas +10 at Texas, over/under: 57.5. The initial boost the Razorbacks showed upon Bobby Petrino taking over as interim coach appears long gone.  The Longhorns continue to disappoint but this might be the worst defense they’ve seen all season considering it ranks 120^th in the nation in defensive EPA per play. Play: Texas -10.

Tulane -7.5 at Temple, over/under: 56.5. The Owls have gotten stomped when they’ve stepped up in competition this year, losing by more than 30 points per game in a trio of contests against Oklahoma, Georgia Tech and East Carolina. Tulane is closer to those teams in quality than the mid- to low-tier of American Athletic Conference teams that Temple has stayed competitive against. Play: Tulane -7.5.

Illinois -9.5 at Wisconsin, over/under: 42. These two teams are similar in that they want to play a ground-and-pound, slow-paced style. That mutes the chances for either side to separate, and makes it a hard sell for either team to be laying more than a touchdown.  Play: Wisconsin +9.5.

Hawaii +2.5 at UNLV, over/under: 64.5. Sell high on Hawaii coming off its best performance of the year, a 38-6 win over San Diego State as 6.5-point underdogs. UNLV’s defense makes it difficult to trust, but this should be a shootout regardless. The Rebels are comfortable in shootouts. Play: UNLV -2.5.

Other Games

Play: UNLV -3 vs. Hawaii

Play: Florida State -4.5 at NC State

Play: Louisiana Tech +1 vs. Liberty

Lean: Coastal Carolina +23 at South Carolina

Lean: Troy -11.5 vs. Georgia State

Lean: Air Force +3 vs. New Mexico

Lean: Stanford +3 vs. California

Lean: Connecticut -7 at Florida Atlantic

Lean: Miami -16.5 at Virginia Tech

Lean: Akron +3.5 at Bowling Green

Lean: Michigan -13 at Maryland

Lean: UCF -14.5 vs. Oklahoma State

Lean: Army -9.5 vs. Tulsa

Lean: Penn State -9.5 vs. Nebraska

Lean: Minnesota +5 at Northwestern

Lean: Central Michigan -7.5 at Kent State

Lean: Louisiana +3 at Arkansas State

Lean: Western Michigan -5.5 at Northern Illinois

Lean: Utah -16.5 vs. Kansas State

Lean: Georgia -44.5 vs. Charlotte

Lean: Western Kentucky +22.5 at LSU

Guess: Washington -10.5 at UCLA

Guess: Tennessee -3.5 at Florida

Guess: North Carolina +6.5 vs. Duke

Guess: Iowa -16 vs. Michigan State

Guess: East Carolina -2.5 at UTSA

Guess: Delaware +17.5 at Wake Forest

Guess: Sam Houston +7 at Middle Tennessee

Guess: Iowa State -4 vs. Kansas

Guess: Missouri State +7 at Kennesaw State

Guess: Arizona State -7.5 at Colorado

Guess: UTEP -3 vs. New Mexico State

Guess: Rice +18.5 vs. North Texas

Guess: Miami (Ohio) +2.5 at Buffalo

Guess: Toledo -27 vs. Ball State

Guess: Florida International +1.5 vs. Jacksonville State

Guess: South Alabama +3 vs. Southern Miss

Guess: Houston -2 vs. TCU

Guess: South Florida -20.5 at UAB

Guess: James Madison -13.5 vs. Washington State

Guess: Texas State -18.5 vs. UL Monroe

Guess: Utah State +2.5 at Fresno State

Guess: San Jose State +12 at San Diego State

Guess: Baylor +6.5 at Arizona

Guess: Boise State -16.5 vs. Colorado State

Guess: Marshall -3.5 at Appalachian State

Guess: Syracuse +35.5 at Notre Dame

Guess: Massachusetts +33 at Ohio