College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of every Week 14 game

If a bettor had started with a $100 wager on Michigan to beat Ohio State outright in 2021 and rolled over the winnings in each of the three successive meetings between the rivals, they’d now have roughly $28,438.

The maize and blue have owned what many call the best rivalry in college football lately, and the betting odds provide a picture of the improbability of their domination in the series. The closing moneyline prices dating back to 2021 imply less than a 0.5% chance that Michigan would win all four games, but that’s what has happened.

The only game where the market favored the Wolverines over the Buckeyes was in their 2023-2024 championship season. Michigan was only a 3-point favorite in that contest, where it held on for a 30-24 victory.

It beat Ohio State by a combined 37 points the two previous years as 8- and 7.5-point underdogs, respectively.

But the bulk of the return on the aforementioned hypothetical betting strategy — which would never be employed but works from an illustrative standpoint — came last year. Michigan went to Ohio State as closing 19-point underdog, and as high as 12-to-1 on the moneyline, before pulling off a 13-10 shocker.

This year’s rematch would be a tame upset by comparison. The defending national champion, undefeated Ohio State visits Michigan as a 10-point favorite with the odds implying about a 78% win probability.

And if the imaginary Michigan bettor wanted to risk all their $28,438 for another year? They could get a ticket to win $89,580 in Las Vegas, as the Wolverines’ best currently available moneyline price is +315 (i.e. risking $100 to win $315).

Read below to see if I give Michigan any chance by handicapping the point spread in this year’s edition of “The Game.” Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 320-292-15 (93-84-6 on plays, 109-94-4 on leans and 118-114-5 on leans)

Big Games

Ole Miss -6.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 63.5. In this era of college football where players are on the move for better opportunities even more than coaches, are the former really distracted by the latter? They might be, but this line is pricing it as a definite that the Rebels will be weakened by coach Lane Kiffin’s wandering eyes. Don’t pay a premium to fade Ole Miss when the line would have been 10 or higher two weeks ago. Play: Ole Miss -6.5.

Georgia -12.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 59.5. Georgia Tech left an impression by taking Georgia to eight overtimes last year before an eventual 44-42 loss as 17-point underdogs. But Georgia was trending downwards at the end of last year. It’s the exact opposite this year, as the Bulldogs have only recently started to look like a bona fide threat to win the national championship. Guess: Georgia -12.5.

Texas A&M -2.5 at Texas, over/under: 51.5. This line was Texas -10.5 coming into the season. The teams’ seasons have diverged but arguably not quite enough to merit a 13-point move. Texas still has the better roster, and has shown signs of life recently — arguably outplaying Texas A&M over the last month. Lean: Texas +2.5.

Ohio State -10 at Michigan, over/under: 44.5. Recent series history aside, laying double digits on the road in a rivalry game against a competent opponent with a team who’s two best offensive players are hurt isn’t a winning strategy. Neither wide receiver Jeremiah Smith nor wide receiver Carnell Tate played in Ohio State’s 42-9 win over Rutgers as 31-point favorites last week, and there’s been no clarity on their status this week. Guess: Michigan +10.

Oregon -7 at Washington, over/under: 53. There might not be a more concerning injury list in the nation than the Ducks’ as they’ve now got cluster injuries both at wide receiver and offensive line. It hasn’t mattered yet but it’s bound to catch up to them at some point, perhaps on the road in an underrated rivalry game. Wait to see if Washington +7.5 appears to unload an actual play. Lean: Washington +7.

LSU +10.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 37.5. Both these offenses barely crack the nation’s top 100 in expected points added (EPA) per play; both these defenses rate in the nation’s top 15 in EPA per play. The game is unlikely to feature enough points for either team to pull away for a double-digit victory. Lean: LSU +10.5.

Vanderbilt +2.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 64.5. Vanderbilt is a great story and merits serious College Football Playoff consideration, but its 128^th in the nation in pass defense by EPA per play. It’s gotten fortunate to avoid most of the best passing offenses in the SEC, but that changes against Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar and Co. Guess: Tennessee -2.5.

Alabama -5.5 at Auburn, over/under: 46.5. The number is exactly right — as evidenced by minimal movement in two weeks since it’s been posted at some local sports books — but Alabama has a better X-factor in stabilizing-force Ty Simpson at quarterback. Auburn’s upside is similar to their Iron Bowl rival’s, but it’s more mistake-prone and less trustworthy.  Guess: Alabama -5.5.

Big Plays

Iowa -4.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 39.5. Even now with more than a two-game sample illustrating the downgrade from injured quarterback Dylan Railoa to current fill-in TJ Lateef, the market continues to minimize the impact on the Cornhuskers. Iowa, meanwhile, is a couple plays away from the playoff conversation with losses of less than a touchdown to Indiana, Oregon and USC. Few teams are more underrated than the Hawkeyes. Play: Iowa -4.5.

Kentucky +3.5 at Louisville, over/under: 47.5. Louisville quarterback Miller Moss may play after missing last week’s dreadful 38-6 loss to SMU as 3.5-point underdogs, but he won’t be 100% healthy. Whether it’s the perpetually disappointing Miller or the green Deuce Knight, a menacing Wildcats’ defensive front should cause havoc. Play: Kentucky +3.5.

Wisconsin +1.5 at Minnesota, over/under: 37.5. Few teams in the nation have improved more than Wisconsin, which have now covered in four straight games all against teams in the upper half of the Big Ten. The Gophers have gone the other way with only one straight-up win in the span against a weaker schedule. Play: Wisconsin +1.5.

Missouri -2 at Arkansas, over/under: 58. Arkansas still profiles decently through the lens of its season-long numbers, but its efficiency on offense has taken a nosedive in recent weeks. Missouri meanwhile is still fighting and should be better with Beau Pribula having another week to recover in his second game back from what looked like a season-ending leg injury last month. Play: Missouri -2.

Northwestern +6.5 at Illinois, over/under: 47.5. The Wildcats realized their season-long mission last week by holding off Minnesota 38-35 as 4-point favorites to reach bowl eligibility. Talent-richer Illinois has more left to prove after losing three of its last five games to put a damper on what was once hailed as a potential banner season for the program.   Play: Illinois -6.5.

Arizona +1.5 at Arizona State, over/under: 48.5. Nothing can speak higher of Arizona State coach Kenny Dillingham’s ability than winning three straight games with journeyman quarterback Jeff Sims at the helm. But Sims remains a liability, especially going into the Territorial Cup against a rising archrival that’s seen everything come together in a three-game winning streak. Play: Arizona +1.5.

Other Games

Play: Washington State -13.5 vs. Oregon State

Play: Texas State -9 vs. South Alabama

Play: Louisiana -10 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Play: Iowa State -13.5 at Oklahoma State

Play: Marshall -7 vs. Georgia Southern

Play: UNLV -7.5 at UNR

Lean: USC -21 vs. UCLA

Lean: Miami -6.5 at Pittsburgh

Lean: Penn State -11 at Rutgers

Lean: Western Michigan -6.5 at Eastern Michigan

Lean: Virginia -10 vs. Virginia Tech

Lean: Duke -1 vs. Wake Forest

Lean: Memphis -5.5 vs. Navy

Lean: UTEP +5.5 at Delaware

Lean: Central Michigan +10.5 vs. Toledo

Lean: Boise State -3 at Utah State

Lean: Michigan State -4 vs. Maryland

Lean: Florida State +2.5 at Florida

Lean: Texas Tech -23.5 at West Virginia

Lean: Indiana -28 at Purdue

Lean: Northern Illinois -4.5 vs. Kent State

Lean: Miami (Ohio) -17.5 vs. Ball State

Lean: Louisiana Tech +3 at Missouri State

Lean: Troy +7 at Southern Miss

Lean: Kennesaw State -1.5 at Liberty

Lean: Hawaii -8 vs. Wyoming

Lean: East Carolina -6.5 at Florida Atlantic

Lean: Old Dominion -26.5 vs. Georgia State

Lean: UAB +9 at Tulsa

Lean: Florida International -10 at Sam Houston State

Lean: Boston College -3 at Syracuse

Lean: Colorado +17.5 at Kansas State

Guess: UCF +18.5 at BYU

Guess: South Carolina -2.5 vs. Clemson

Guess: Tulane -29.5 vs. Charlotte

Guess: New Mexico +1.5 vs. San Diego State

Guess: Massachusetts +15 vs. Bowling Green

Guess: Arkansas State +2.5 at Appalachian State

Guess: Army +8 at UTSA

Guess: Baylor -2 vs. Houston

Guess: South Florida -27.5 vs. Rice

Guess: North Texas -20 vs. Temple

Guess: Stanford +33 vs. Notre Dame

Guess: Fresno State -2.5 at San Jose State

Guess: North Carolina +8.5 at NC State

Guess: California +13.5 vs. SMU

Guess: Ohio -6.5 at Buffalo

Guess: Kansas +13.5 vs. Utah

Guess: Western Kentucky -2.5 at Jacksonville State

Guess: TCU -3.5 vs. Cincinnati

Guess: Coastal Carolina +22.5 vs. James Madison

Guess: Middle Tennessee +4.5 at New Mexico State

Guess: Colorado State +2.5 vs. Air Force