College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 4

Neither Texas Tech nor Utah came all that close to their goal of winning the Big 12 Conference last season. Both programs have come back with a vengeance this year, however, and look better poised to get there this time around.

They’re the two favorites in the conference future betting odds with Circa Sports listing Utah at 4-to-1 and Texas Tech at +450 (i.e. risking $100 to win $450). A more definitive favorite will emerge after Saturday morning when the Utes host the Red Raiders as 3.5-point favorites.  

It’s hard to bet against either side right now after their offseason dives in the transfer portal appear to have paid off in a major way. Texas Tech might have spent more money than any team in the nation in overhauling its roster with decorated players at every position.

Utah was more measured but landed the Big 12’s primary current Heisman Trophy hopeful in former New Mexico quarterback Devon Dampier, whose dual-threat ability has his odds to win the award down to 16-to-1 at Circa.

Utah has won and covered in all three of its games so far, while Texas Tech’s lone miss against the spread came in a 62-14 victory over Kent State as 48.5-point favorites.

The Big 12 has dipped precipitously behind the SEC and Big Ten in college football’s hierarchy, but this week, it has the best game on the board.

Read below to find my handicap of Texas Tech at Utah and all the other matchups between Football Bowl Subdivision opponents this weekend. Picks are labeled in one of three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Odds are the best available at publication time on the chosen side. The overall record so far stands at 75-72-1 (26-24-1 on plays, 26-23 on leans and 23-25 on guesses).

Big Games

Texas Tech +3.5 at Utah, over/under: 57.5. There are not a whole lot separating these two teams but the Utes may have a pair of overlooked edges — the fact that the Red Raiders have never traveled to the high-elevation Rice-Eccles Stadium before and a healthier injury report. Still, I would want Utah -3 to appear to play this point spread and that seems unlikely. Lean: Utah -3.5.

SMU +6.5 at TCU, over/under: 64. Sports fans and pundits spent so much energy dunking on Bill Belichick after his North Carolina team lost 48-14 hosting TCU as 3.5-point underdogs in Week 1 that they missed what the result really revealed. Namely, that TCU is back as a Big 12 contender right next to Utah and Texas Tech. SMU, on the other hand, doesn’t look like one in the ACC at 0-3 against the spread and noticeably down from last year’s College Football Playoff squad. Lean: TCU -6.5.   

Auburn +6 at Oklahoma, over/under: 48. This game doesn’t look set up for current Auburn quarterback/ousted Oklahoma savior Jackson Arnold to achieve a storybook ending by coming back to his old home for a win. The Sooners’ new passer, John Mateer, is better in every way. The point spread looks right, however, and the pick would even flip if it bloated to Oklahoma -7.  Guess: Oklahoma -6.

Tulane +12.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 61. Even though it’s sitting at 3-0 straight-up and 2-1 against the spread, Ole Miss has looked relatively unimpressive in helping to validate the money that has come in against it each week. This is a bigger spot for Tulane, which seeks to bolster its College Football Playoff resume for the Group of Five championship bid like conference-mate South Florida has already done. Play: Tulane +12.5.

Michigan +2.5 at Nebraska, over/under: 45.5. These teams look evenly-matched, but Nebraska might have the edge in the two biggest areas — coach and quarterback. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood should turn out better than Nebraska’s Dylan Railoa, but the latter’s experience gets the edge for now. The Cornhuskers’ Matt Rhule is similiarly much more proven than the Wolverines’ Sherrone Moore. Play: Nebraska +2.5.

Florida +7.5 at Miami, over/under: 51.5. Hot take: Miami looks like the best team in the nation and worth a bet at 20-to-1 to win the national championship. The Hurricanes have no personnel weaknesses. Their defensive line has been particularly devastating and could harass Florida quarterback DJ Lagaway into another turnover-full afternoon after he threw five interceptions in a 20-10 loss to LSU as 5-point underdogs last week. Play: Miami -7.5.

Illinois +4 at Indiana, over/under: 52.5. Indiana is gaining +1.2 net yards per play on the season, three times better than Illinois’ +0.4 net yards per play. Yes, the Illini have played a tougher schedule but not enough of one to completely make up for that gap. The Hoosiers’ roster is also superior on paper. Play: Indiana -4.

Arizona State +2.5 at Baylor, over/under: 59.5. The number is exactly right but, if it comes down to making a big play or staging a game-winning drive, I trust Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson slightly more than Arizona State counterpart Sam Leavitt. Robertson is throwing for 7.9 yards per pass attempt this season to Leavitt’s 6.1 yards per pass attempt. Guess: Baylor -2.5.

Big Plays

Iowa -2.5 at Rutgers, over/under: 45. This point spread would have looked woefully short a month ago, but some adjustment is necessary after three games of Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski laboring to throw the ball. Maybe the former South Dakota State standout figures it out but Rutgers’ Athan Kaliakmanis — who has seven touchdowns with no interceptions at a clip of 9.5 yards per attempt — is the safer bet for now. Play: Rutgers +2.5.

Arkansas -7.5 at Memphis, over/under: 62. The betting market keeps fading Memphis, and I keep happily being a part of the buyback on the other side. This is a matchup that means much more to the Tigers against a neighboring power-conference opponent, and the talent gap isn’t that wide with the program well-endowed and loaded with highly-recruited players. Play: Memphis +7.5.

Oregon State +34.5 at Oregon, over/under: 55. Oregon tops most publicly available power ratings through three weeks and with good reason: No team has beaten down all of its opponents more impressively. The Ducks uncharacteristically showed mercy in a 34-13 win over Northwestern as 24.5-point favorites, but the same courtesy is unlikely to be reserved for a bitter in-state rival. Play: Oregon -34.5.

Troy +6.5 at Buffalo, over/under: 42.5. Buffalo is the anti-Memphis in that the market appears infatuated with it for little reason. The Bulls have proven nothing and, in fact, have looked worse than anticipated considering they had to squeak out a 31-28 victory over Kent State as 24-point favorites last week. Troy is the better program on the annual basis, and there’s been no evidence that anything has changed. Play: Troy +6.5.

North Carolina +7 at UCF, over/under: 49. Both the Tar Heels and the Knights look rough but the latter has the better roster composition and rated higher coming into the season. Why is North Carolina being punished for an embarrassing loss to a strong TCU team while UCF is given a pass for an equally-alarming 17-10 victory over Jacksonville State as 20-point favorites? Play: North Carolina +7.

Southern Miss +2.5 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 51.5. Louisiana Tech might be the best team in the Conference USA based on the early returns. Southern Miss is middling at best in the Sun Belt. I make the Bulldogs more like a touchdown favorite. Play: Louisiana Tech -2.5.

Other Games

Play: Liberty +9.5 vs. James Madison

Play: Vanderbilt -26 vs. Georgia State

Play: UTEP -4.5 vs. Louisiana-Monroe

Play: UNLV -2.5 at Miami (Ohio)

Play: East Carolina +7.5 vs. BYU

Play: Charlotte +3 vs. Rice

Lean: Florida International -5.5 vs. Delaware

Lean: West Virginia +12.5 at Kansas

Lean: UAB +40.5 at Tennessee

Lean: Clemson -16.5 vs. Syracuse

Lean: Western Michigan +14.5 vs. Toledo

Lean: Maryland +8.5 at Wisconsin

Lean: North Texas +1.5 at Army

Lean: Missouri -12.5 vs. South Carolina

Lean: UNR +11.5 at Western Kentucky

Lean: Purdue +27.5 at Notre Dame

Lean: Colorado -13 vs. Wyoming

Lean: Eastern Michigan +3 vs. Louisiana

Lean: Colorado State +5 vs. UTSA

Guess: Fresno State -2.5 at Hawaii

Guess: USC -17.5 vs. Michigan State

Guess: San Diego State +13 vs. California

Guess: Mississippi State -21.5 vs. Northern Illinois

Guess: Middle Tennessee +2.5 vs. Marshall

Guess: Texas -40 vs. Sam Houston

Guess: Bowling Green +27 at Louisville

Guess: South Alabama -14.5 vs. Coastal Carolina

Guess: Duke -3 vs. NC State

Guess: Oklahoma State -13 vs. Tulsa

Guess: Kent State +46.5 at Florida State

Guess: Kennesaw State +6.5 vs. Arkansas State

Guess: Connecticut -20.5 vs. Ball State

Guess: Air Force +10 vs. Boise State

Guess: Temple +24.5 at Georgia Tech

Guess: Stanford +16 at Virginia

Guess: Washington -20 at Washington State