College football by the odds: Vegas preview and picks of every SEC team's win total

Football betting play already feels a small antithetic successful Las Vegas, and not successful a bully way.

The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook in-house bookmaking cognition and betting app went acheronian Tuesday. Caesars Sportsbook has present assumed power of the abstraction that had served astatine the forefront of the Las Vegas sports betting country for decades.

The timing was nary coincidence, arsenic Caesars wanted to get acceptable up successful clip for the biggest portion of the nationalist sports betting calendar — shot season.

Recreational bettors whitethorn hardly announcement the difference, oregon they whitethorn adjacent similar the caller statement fixed Caesars’ modern app plan and overwhelming magnitude of betting options.

But those superior astir betting cognize that the nonaccomplishment of each autarkic betting store is important — particularly 1 that was tally arsenic professionally and reasonably arsenic the SuperBook. No different sportsbook successful Las Vegas amended merged a ample wagering paper with debased clasp percent and a willingness to judge decent-sized wagers than the SuperBook.

It was a luxury to bettors that didn’t spell unnoticed arsenic evidenced by its perennial enactment arsenic the champion sportsbook by Las Vegas Weekly’s Best of Vegas awards.

The SuperBook annually had 1 of the biggest offerings of shot futures, truthful there’s present 1 less spot to excavation done to find the champion odds. Las Vegas is down to 9 licensed operators arsenic preseason betting connected assemblage shot and the NFL truly heats up.

As always, I’ve gone done each of them to find the champion prices for Talking Points’ annual bid handicapping the triumph full of each powerfulness league team. In besides keeping with tradition, I’ll commencement with the SEC.

The league was 1 of my astir profitable past play with a 5-2 grounds connected plays. The wide grounds connected the SEC sat astatine 9-7 (2-3 connected leans, 2-2 connected guesses).

Find different 7 plays connected SEC triumph totals beneath for this play arsenic good arsenic investigation connected each team. Lines are the champion disposable successful Las Vegas connected the chosen broadside with the sportsbook noted. Check backmost implicit the adjacent 3 weeks for 4 parts of this series.

Alabama (over/under 8.5 wins)

Reports are progressively affirmative connected the progression of blue-chip sophomore backmost Keelon Russell, but helium does not measurement into an perfect concern with roster holes uncharacteristic to the Crimson Tide each astir him. The dissolution of past year’s violative enactment and receiving corps — isolated from Ryan Coleman-Williams, who went done a important sophomore slump — are peculiar concerns. But Alabama drew a manageable schedule, particularly aboriginal wherever it’s heavy favored to commencement 5-0, and it has taken crisp wealth connected its implicit for the past respective weeks. The fig looks right, making positive wealth connected either broadside the pick.   

Guess: Over 8.5 wins Even wealth (South Point)

Arkansas (over/under 4.5 wins)

New Arkansas manager Ryan Silverfield severely underachieved astatine Memphis, with his 50-25 straight-up grounds obscuring the information that the programme had excessively galore resources to neglect to triumph a azygous league title successful his tenure. Many of the aforesaid Memphis players from underachieving teams the past mates years person followed him 300 miles westbound to Fayetteville, Ark. This triumph full represents a debased bar, but there’s a bully accidental the Razorbacks look similar an overmatched American Athletic Conference contender playing successful the SEC.    

Lean: Under 4.5 wins -160 (South Point)

Auburn (over/under 6.5 wins)

Quarterback Byrum Brown was 1 of the biggest stars of assemblage shot aboriginal past play erstwhile South Florida pulled disconnected back-to-back large upsets implicit Boise State and Florida, but his banal seemed to unfairly slice from there. Buy the dip. Moving to Auburn with manager Alex Golesh and violative coordinator Joel Gordon, Brown should beryllium 1 of the astir dynamic playmakers successful the league. Golesh should supply much competency successful the decision-making section aft erstwhile coaches Hugh Freeze and Bryan Harsin combined to spell a disastrous 6-18 successful one-score games the past 5 years.  

Play: Over 6.5 wins -105 (Circa)

Florida (over/under: 7.5 wins)

The Gators conscionable mightiness person made the champion coaching prosecute successful the conference, bringing successful Jon Sumrall aft helium won league titles successful 2 of the past 3 seasons astatine antithetic spots. Sumrall conscionable mightiness person followed with the champion violative coordinator prosecute successful the conference, bringing successful lauded Georgia Tech playcaller Buster Faulkner. New backmost Aaron Philo was so-so arsenic a backup astatine Georgia Tech, but Faulkner indispensable spot thing successful him to not look elsewhere astatine the position. Sumrall did an admirable occupation keeping different parts of the roster together, making Florida look similar a morganatic SEC sleeper.   

Play: Over 7.5 wins +145 (Circa)

Georgia (over/under: 10 wins)

The Bulldogs person the easiest docket successful the SEC by each metric, truthful they astir apt get to 10 wins for the sixth consecutive play nether manager Kirby Smart but don’t wage a premium counting connected it. A 9-3 grounds grades retired arsenic their second-likeliest landing point, narrowly up of 11-1. Georgia’s discourtesy was stale astatine times and lacked detonation past year, and present looks diminished this play — particularly astatine receiver. Quarterback Gunner Stockton whitethorn request to elevate to Heisman Trophy campaigner presumption to support the program’s national-championship anticipation level and, portion helium had a beardown play a twelvemonth ago, helium was a tier beneath that level.   

Guess: Under 10 wins -115 (STN Sports)

Kentucky (over/under: 4.5 wins)

New manager Will Stein was a terrific prosecute for the Wildcats — 1 that feels astir excessively bully to beryllium existent for a agelong overmatched programme — arsenic were respective of his transportation portal snags. Former Notre Dame backmost Kenny Minchey and Oklahoma — by mode of Desert Pines High — moving backmost Jovantae Barnes item that list. A bullish lawsuit exists connected Kentucky rebuilding up of schedule, but Stein’s news-conference comments hinting astatine patience casts immoderate doubt.   

Guess: Under 4.5 wins +130 (Wynn)

LSU (over/under: 8.5 wins)

Think of the Tigers arsenic the anti-Crimson Tide arsenic acold arsenic marketplace sentiment. The biggest bets person poured successful against them for astir of the offseason contempt each the hype and contention surrounding the accomplishment of manager Lane Kiffin. Quarterback Sam Leavitt mightiness beryllium the bigger contiguous get arsenic helium blew past expectations each measurement of the mode astatine Arizona State. But he’s coming disconnected ft surgery, and there’s astatine slightest immoderate interest helium won’t beryllium backmost to his aged aforesaid for the commencement of the season. That’s a large capable reddish emblem successful itself to enactment away, particularly with a pugnacious opening docket that includes possibly the astir anticipated regular-season crippled of the twelvemonth successful assemblage shot — Kiffin’s instrumentality to Ole Miss wherever LSU is simply a existent 2.5-point underdog.  

Guess: Under 8.5 wins Even wealth (Caesars/William Hill)

Mississippi (over/under: 8.5 wins)

Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and moving backmost Kewan Lacy were thrilling successful Ole Miss’ tally to the College Football Playoff semifinals past year, but they’ll present person to navigate not lone the nonaccomplishment of Kiffin but violative coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. The Rebels are coming disconnected their champion play successful much than 60 years, and replicating that is often easier said than done. New manager Pete Golding impressed successful the CFP, but his way grounds is overmuch spottier than Kiffin’s decades of experience.

Play: Under 8.5 wins -150 (Boyd)

Mississippi State (over/under: 4.5 wins)

The discourtesy Mississippi State tweaked erstwhile backmost Kamario Taylor took implicit precocious past play caught respective opponents disconnected guard. It forecasts to beryllium little threatening present that opponents person gotten an offseason to amended hole for it. The Bulldogs person a challenging schedule, and not capable endowment to marque immoderate superior sound successful the SEC. They should get swallowed up successful the trenches, leaving Taylor and an awesome corporate of accomplishment players small country to operate.

Play: Under 4.5 wins +105 (Circa)

Missouri (over/under: 6.5 wins)

After years of someway annually drafting 1 of the SEC’s weakest schedules, Missouri’s slate is upped successful presumption of trouble this season. Stretches similar a late-season back-to-back against league favorites Georgia and Texas should accelerate fall-off that already appeared evident based connected the roster. Ahmad Hardy mightiness beryllium the champion moving backmost successful the SEC, but his availability is successful question aft helium was changeable successful the offseason. Missouri besides mislaid ballyhooed violative coordinator Kirby Moore, who took the head-coaching occupation astatine Washington State.

Play: Under 6.5 wins +110 (South Point)

Oklahoma (over/under: 7.5 wins)

The Sooners got plentifulness of breaks to marque a tally to the College Football Playoff past twelvemonth including a 4-0 grounds successful games decided by 7 points oregon less. Some regression should beryllium expected some successful the close-game section and connected defense, wherever they were off-the-charts businesslike successful notoriously fickle categories similar third-down stops. But those drop-offs could beryllium overshadowed by a amended functioning offense, particularly if a manus wounded was genuinely to blasted for backmost John Mateer’s diminution arsenic the play went on. The betting marketplace seems bullish connected Oklahoma, and there’s a bully accidental this triumph full closes astatine 8 oregon adjacent a plus-money 8.5.    

Guess: Over 7.5 wins -135 (South Point)

South Carolina (over/under: 6.5 wins)

The Gamecocks blew commanding leads against some Alabama and Texas A&M past year, leaving their 4-8 grounds a spot misleading. Quarterback LaNorris Sellers was a top-five prime successful the Heisman Trophy aboriginal likelihood astatine this clip a twelvemonth ago. While that lasting was a spot aggressive, helium remains amended than presently perceived arsenic an average-level starter. Much antithetic than past year, South Carolina besides leads the SEC successful returning production. It has the acquisition and accomplishment to get backmost connected track.

Play: Over 6.5 wins +120 (Boomer’s)

Tennessee (over/under: 7.5 wins)

The Volunteers’ defence bottomed retired to arguably the worst successful the league past year. It volition amended this play by default, particularly with caller coordinator Jim Knowles taking implicit conscionable 2 years removed from winning a nationalist title astatine Ohio State. Offensive accumulation has stayed remarkably accordant nether manager Josh Heupel, who seems giddy astir the imaginable of competing young quarterbacks Faizon Brandon and George MacIntyre.

Guess: Over 7.5 wins -115 (BetMGM)

Texas (over/under: 9.5 wins)

A twelvemonth agone astatine this time, Texas was the nationalist title favorite. Quarterback Arch Manning was the Heisman Trophy favorite. A mates market-shaping nonrecreational bettors declared it 1 of the top-graded teams coming into a assemblage shot play ever. The hype has died down aft an underwhelming 9-3 regular play — possibly excessively much, particularly considering determination mightiness beryllium much endowment connected this year’s roster. The Longhorns’ docket is the toughest successful the federation to supply immoderate pause, but nary rosters successful the SEC — and fewer successful the state — look arsenic complete.  

Guess: Over 9.5 wins +118 (Boyd)

Texas A&M (over/under: 8.5 wins)

The Aggies bullied their mode to the College Football Playoff a twelvemonth agone with a fortunate docket gully and an imposing, experienced violative line. Both those guiding forces are present gone. They besides mislaid some coordinators, arsenic violative playcaller Collin Klein bolted to instrumentality implicit the programme astatine his alma mater of Kansas State portion antiaircraft coordinator Jay Bateman joined Stein’s unit astatine Kentucky. There’s continuity astatine backmost with Marcel Reed, who has sterling numbers but a propensity for making large mistakes. A measurement backmost feels each but guaranteed, truthful the lone hesitation is that going nether the triumph full requires a important three-victory decline.  

Play: Under 8.5 wins -115 (Wynn)

Vanderbilt (over/under: 5.5 wins)

One of the teams priced astatine the bottommost of the SEC is bound to interruption done and beryllium competitive. Vanderbilt mightiness beryllium best-positioned to bash truthful contempt entering a rebuilding play aft losing the bulk of the difference-makers disconnected past year’s 10-win team. If Clark Lea is arsenic shrewd of a manager arsenic galore present marque him retired to be, helium should person capable to enactment with to get backmost to vessel eligibility. The Commodores are present attracting and recruiting higher-caliber prospects than ever before, champion personified by the accomplishment of five-star freshman backmost Jared Curtis.

Guess: Over 5.5 wins -138 (Boyd)