Defenseless Cowboys leave door open for Raiders rebound

Denver Broncos wide receiver Pat Bryant (13) runs against Las Vegas Raiders safety Lonnie Johnson Jr. (32) on Nov. 6 in Denver. Photo by: Jack Dempsey / AP

The Raiders’ final of three scheduled stand-alone, primetime games this season takes place on “Monday Night Football” and, if nothing else, should provide fireworks.

Cowboys games have averaged 60 points this season — by far the highest total in the NFL — largely due to their combination of a highly-efficient offense with one of the league’s worst defenses. The Raiders’ split is flipped as their defense has been serviceable while the offense has been dreadful, but the latter unit has played better at home.

Las Vegas has scored 20 points or more points on four occasions this season, and three of those came in its last three appearances at Allegiant Stadium — a 30-29 overtime loss to the Jaguars, a 20-10 win over the Titans and a 25-24 defeat to the Bears.

Dallas has the worst defense Las Vegas has seen all season, so this might the matchup it needs to get back on track.

Favorable matchup: Raiders’ tight end duo vs. Cowboys’ defense

 NFL teams are using multiple tight-end sets at a record rate this season, and the Raiders have been a big part of the uptick — especially in the last two weeks since second-year star Brock Bowers returned fully healthy from a knee strain. They figure to feature Bowers and Michael Mayer on the field together prominently down the stretch of the season. Mayer, in his third year, has largely been overshadowed by Bowers but he’s in the most productive stretch of his carer with 12 catches for 108 yards over the last four games. He could see increased opportunities as opponents scheme to slow Bowers, like in last week’s 10-7 Thursday Night Football loss at the Broncos. Denver focused its gameplan around doubling Bowers, who received three targets to Mayer’s four. Dallas might have a difficult time covering each of them considering its 23rd in the league against tight ends per the DVOA ratings. The Cowboys are expected to be better defending the run after acquiring star defensive tackle Quinnen Williams from the Jets at the trade deadline, but their pass defense remains an issue.      

Problematic matchup: Dak Prescott vs. Raiders’ pass defense

Earlier in the season, the Cowboys’ 10th-year quarterback led the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per passing attempt. He’s since cooled, falling down to 10th, but has still shown enough flashes to remind the league why he was the runner-up in NFL Most Valuable Player voting just two years ago. The Raiders have faced a weak slate of opposing pass games over the last month aside a Week 7 game at the Chiefs that they lost 31-0. That changes against the Cowboys. Las Vegas’ secondary has looked much improved following a bye week after the Kansas City game but this assignment will test if the trend is real. No. 1 receiver CeeDeee Lamb, No. 2 receiver George Pickens and tight end Jake Ferguson should cause matchup problems for the Raiders. Much-criticized starting cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly is in particular a player to watch as he comes off of the best game of his career against the Broncos. He notched two interceptions and rated as one of the best defensive backs in the league for Week 10 by Pro Football Focus’ grading metrics.     

Gamebreaker: Tyler Lockett

The Cowboys’ defensive problems are numerous, but the unit’s single biggest one has been defending slot receivers and the middle of the field in the passing game. In the Raiders’ first game since dealing top receiver Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars at the trade deadline, Lockett largely took over in the slot. He led the team with five catches for 44 yards. The 33-year-old may no longer have the explosion that made him an All-Pro three straight times for 2015 to 2017 in Seattle, but he’s still a sure route-runner with soft hands. There were rumblings around the league that his career might be circling the drain after the Titans released him earlier in the season, but the Raiders seem to be on a mission to prove them wrong. Quarterback Geno Smith specifically considers Lockett one of his best friends from their time together with the Seahawks, and his trust in the receiver has shown so far on the field.   

Big Number: 4

Raiders two-time All Pro kicker Daniel Carlson has missed four field goal attempts this season, including a 48-yarder late against the Broncos that may have cost Las Vegas a chance to win the game in overtime. Carlson also failed on an extra point in a one-point loss to Jacksonville two weeks ago. The 30-year-old’s future with the franchise already appeared undetermined after the two sides couldn’t agree on a contract extension coming into the season, but now their seven-year marriage may end sooner than ever anticipated. Las Vegas added another kicker, eight-year NFL veteran Greg Joseph, to its practice squad this week, in a move Carlson admits adds urgency for him to bounce back. The Raiders also fired special teams coordinator Tom McMahon after the Broncos’ game, which also included a blocked punt deep in their own territory. Former special teams assistant Derius Swinton II will take over as the interim coordinator for the rest of the season. Carlson’s struggles look especially problematic next to Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey, who’s missed only one field goal all year and that was a 68-yard attempt as time expired in the first half of a 27-17 loss to the Cardinals.  

Best Bet (5-4): Javonte Williams under 76.5 rushing yards

The fifth-year NFL veteran running back has revived his career with the Cowboys, but the Raiders are used to limiting him from his time with the Broncos. Williams has played more games against Las Vegas than any other team, with seven meetings, but he’s been held to only 3.3 yards per rush in the contests with two touchdowns. The game state may not also set up for him to have a major workload this time around. The Raiders should be able to stick with the Cowboys and make this a close game. Las Vegas has only gotten beaten soundly once in four home games this season, so it’s unlikely Dallas will be handing off repeatedly to run down the clock in the fourth quarter.