From Raider rumors to Browns reality, Sanders makes Vegas start

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Tre Tucker (11) runs the ball during the first half of a NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024, in Las Vegas. Photo by: Wade Vandervort

Shedeur Sanders will make his first career start in Las Vegas after all. He just won’t be in silver and black.

The lightning-rod rookie quarterback was often associated with the Raiders throughout his final college season at Colorado. He alluded to wanting to play for the Raiders and has a close relationship with minority owner Tom Brady. But Las Vegas, along with every other team in the NFL, passed on him repeatedly before the Browns chose him in the fifth round.

Sanders struggled when pressed into action last week, completing only four of 16 passes for 47 yards and an interception. The Raiders’ quarterback situation has also been dire, as veteran Geno Smith rates among the worst in the league by most statistical categories.

Coach Pete Carroll has been reluctant to even criticize Smith, let alone bench him, though former starter Aidan O’Connell is now injured reserve.

Favorable matchup: Raiders’ star tight end vs. Browns’ defense

With all due respect to promising rookies Quinshon Judkins (running back) and Harold Fannin Jr. (tight end), Cleveland doesn’t have a skill player on the level of Brock Bowers. The second-year tight end has 20 catches for 230 yards in three games since returning from a knee strain, and there’s a sense those numbers should be a lot higher. Offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has said he could do a better job calling more plays designed for Bowers, who had seven catches for 72 yards in a 33-16 loss to Dallas on Monday but looked open far more often than that. Dallas runs one of the league’s highest rates of zone defense, however, at 78% according to Sharp Football Analysis. Cleveland is dead-last in the NFL at only employing zone on 51% of snaps. Bowers is noted for having a preternatural ability for finding holes against zones, so the Browns’ heavier man-to-man bent could be a new challenge for him.

Problematic matchup: Browns’ star pass rusher vs. Raiders’ offensive line

With all due respect to superstar edge rusher Maxx Crosby, Las Vegas doesn’t have a defensive disruptor on the level of Myles Garrett. Few, if any, teams in the NFL do. The 29-year-old, former first overall pick’s statistics stack up favorably with almost any defensive end in NFL history, and he may now be in the midst of his greatest season. Garrett is an odds-on favorite to win his second Defensive Player of the Year award in three years. He leads the NFL with 15 sacks after taking down notoriously slippery Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson four times last week. The Raiders’ offensive line doesn’t inspire much confidence in keeping Garrett at bay. Right tackle DJ Glaze has hit a sophomore slump while injury fill-in left tackle Stone Forsythe might be the offensive line’s equivalent to Smith. Carroll seems to have an undying loyalty to Forsythe from their time together in Seattle despite continued poor play here.

Gamebreaker: Lonnie Johnson Jr. 

The veteran defensive back came off of injured reserve two weeks ago and has immediately slotted in as a rotational player in the defensive backfield. He’s mostly played free safety but has also lined up in the box as run support and in the slot. He has played about half of Las Vegas’ defensive snaps the past two weeks but that number could increase. Johnson has outperformed players ahead of him on the depth chart. The sixth-year player signed here after bouncing around to six other teams and not finding steady defensive snaps since his time with the Houston Texans from 2019-2021. Carroll told Johnson he’d have a chance to compete for more than a special teams spot, and he appears to have taken advantage. Even if Sanders is better than expected, the quarterback’s inexperience likely means he’ll make some ill-advised throws that could wind up in the wrong hands. Johnson could get his first interception since 2021.

Big number: 17

That’s how many consecutive rookie quarterbacks have lost in their first career start for the Browns dating back to when the franchise was resurrected in 1999. That includes rookie third-round pick Dillon Gabriel, who led a losing 23-9 effort at the Steelers in Week 7. Gabriel and fellow rookie Cam Ward are the only quarterbacks in the NFL who rate below Smith in QBR this season. Sanders has an opportunity to claim the starting job but will have to fight past a lot of negative history to prove worthy. Against the Raiders, Sanders will become the Browns’ 42nd starting quarterback in the franchise’s second stint. Not finding the right quarterback is the surest way to doom a franchise, something the Raiders are also realizing after cycling through seven passers in the past three seasons.

Best bet (5-5 on the season): Shedeur Sanders over 15.5 completions

Sanders likely won’t play well, and he’ll still go well over this total. The Browns’ offense has been built around micro-passing ever since Gabriel took over, and there’s no reason that should change with Sanders. Gabriel went over this total in four of six starts, and one of the times he fell under was last week when he only played half the game. The Raiders are 25th in the NFL in defending short passes per the DVOA ratings. They’ll likely be willing to give up completions at or near the line of scrimmage with the emphasis being on tackling to prevent any extra yardage.