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Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2025 | 2 a.m.
Editor’s note: “Behind the News” is the product of Sun staff assisted by the Sun’s AI lab, which includes a variety of tools such as Anthropic’s Claude, Perplexity AI, Google Gemini and ChatGPT.
The federal government is hours away from a shutdown, with funding set to expire at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday unless Congress acts. Lawmakers must pass either a full-year spending package or a temporary extension — known as a continuing resolution — to keep federal agencies and services operating beyond Oct. 1, the start of the new fiscal year.
But this looming shutdown represents far more than a routine funding dispute. At stake are fundamental questions about the role of government, health care access for millions of Americans and the basic functioning of democratic institutions.
The standoff combines unprecedented permanent layoff proposals with major health care policy battles, creating a particularly volatile situation that threatens both federal operations and public confidence in American democracy at a time when trust in government is already at historic lows.
What does a government shutdown mean?
Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass and the president must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee [1]. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for the 2026 fiscal year that make up the discretionary spending budget; without those bills or a continuing resolution, the federal government must shut down.
Since 1980, there have been 14 government shutdowns [2]. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all nonessential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law.
Why this threat is more serious
Mass layoff plans:
Unlike previous shutdowns where federal workers were temporarily furloughed, the White House budget office under President Donald Trump is instructing agencies to prepare plans for permanent layoffs in programs that would lose funding. The guidance directs agencies to identify programs whose funds will lapse if Congress fails to meet the funding deadline and target them for sweeping reductions in force that could permanently eliminate jobs deemed “not consistent” with Trump’s priorities.
Health care policy dispute:
The fight centers around reversing cuts made by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in July, which cuts federal spending on Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program benefits by $1.02 trillion, eliminating at least 10.5 million people from the programs by 2034 and failing to extend the Affordable Care Act’s enhanced premium tax credits beyond 2025 [6].
What’s causing the fight?
Republican position:
Republicans want Congress to pass a short-term funding bill without additional provisions to keep the government funded at 2024 levels through Nov. 20. Their bill includes $30 million in extra security money for members of Congress and $58 million for security for the executive and judicial branches.
Democratic demands:
House and Senate Democrats released their own bill to continue funding levels through Oct. 31. Their plan would reverse Medicaid changes made in the GOP-led tax plan and extend health care subsidies that will expire at the end of the year. The Democratic proposal also limits the Office of Management and Budget’s ability to withhold funds that Congress has allotted for spending and would establish an inspector general in the office for oversight.
Health care stakes:
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that extending the credits would, by 2035, increase the number of people with health insurance by 3.8 million and raise the deficit by $350 billion [1]. Around 8% of Americans are currently uninsured.
What happens in a shutdown?
Essential vs. nonessential functions:
Functions critical to the protection of lives and property are deemed essential and remain open. Agencies file contingency plans detailing what operations will continue and how many employees will remain on the job, many without pay [2].
According to an analysis, 72% of the Department of Homeland Security workforce would be required to work without pay, while more than 1.4 million employees were deemed essential. About 750,000 would continue to be paid since their salaries were funded through other sources, while nearly 900,000 workers would be furloughed without pay [2].
Military and defense:
The Department of Defense has informed active duty and reserve military members, as well as civilian employees, that they will not be paid after today until Congress approves funding for the agency.
Service impacts for the public
Air travel:
The Transportation Security Administration has cautioned that a shutdown could lead to longer wait times at airport security checkpoints. About 95% of TSA workers are considered essential and would remain on the job without pay. During the 2018-2019 shutdown, which lasted 35 days, the number of officers who called out sick rose as financial difficulties mounted.
National parks and tourism:
Recreational facilities funded by the federal government would close, leaving tourists unable to visit national park facilities or Smithsonian museums. The National Park Service estimated that a 2013 government shutdown led to a $500 million loss in visitor spending nationwide [4].
Health and safety services:
The National Institutes of Health would be prevented from admitting new patients or processing grant applications. During the 2013 shutdown, the Environmental Protection Agency halted inspections for 1,200 sites including hazardous waste, drinking water and chemical facilities.
Social Security and benefits:
Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid are covered by mandatory spending and would continue. Social Security benefits would be paid on time, while health care payments for seniors in Medicare and Americans enrolled in Medicaid would continue. However, Social Security’s administrative budget needs congressional approval, potentially affecting some services [4].
Mail service:
The Postal Service is self-funded through its own revenues, not annual appropriations, so mail delivery and post office operations continue without interruption [4].
Economic impact and harm
Weekly economic costs:
Each week of shutdown costs the U.S. economy about $7 billion, according to EY-Parthenon Chief Economist Gregory Daco. The travel economy risks losing $1 billion a week due to disruptions in air and rail travel and closure of national parks and museums.
Historical impact:
The five-week 2018-2019 shutdown delayed approximately $18 billion in federal discretionary spending and reduced real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2018 by $3 billion [1]. Goldman Sachs estimates that a shutdown reduces GDP growth by about 0.2 percentage point each week it lasts [2].
Federal worker impact:
During the 2018-2019 shutdown, about 800,000 government workers missed several weeks of pay, creating financial hardships. Some turned to online fundraising campaigns for assistance, while others relied on food banks.
Political blame and public trust
Partisan perspectives:
Republicans argue that Democrats are threatening to hold government funding hostage to score political points. Democrats respond that Trump is running away from the negotiation table and will own the shutdown, using opposition to the spending bill to push back on Trump administration decisions.
Erosion of democratic confidence:
Even the threat of a shutdown decreases public trust in government. Current trust levels are already low — roughly 2 in 10 Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (21%) [5].
A 2024 survey found that only 23% of Americans trust the federal government, down from 35% in 2022 [5]. Public distrust threatens basic governance by making Congress less willing to allocate funding and subjecting agencies to additional oversight when they do receive support.
Sources
[1] https://www.cbo.gov/publication/54937
[2] https://www.crfb.org/papers/government-shutdowns-qa-everything-you-should-know
[3] https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R41759
[4] https://usafacts.org/articles/government-shutdown-2025-what-to-know/
[5] https://ourpublicservice.org/publications/state-of-trust-in-government-2024/
[6] https://www.americanprogress.org/article/the-implementation-timeline-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill-act/
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