Hamilton, Ferrari and the quest for a 'magic solution'

Lewis Hamilton left the last race of the first part of the Formula 1 season saying he was looking forward to a break - and acting like he needed one.

For the most successful driver in the history, it has not been an easy first 14 races with Ferrari.

The season started with Hamilton full of positivity about his new environment, and a sprint race pole and victory at the second race of the season in China hinted at great promise.

But reality bit back hard within 24 hours of that success. Both Ferraris were disqualified from the grand prix in Shanghai for technical infringements, having not been on the pace of the McLarens.

Since then, Hamilton and Ferrari have struggled for competitiveness, and Hamilton ended the first part of the season saying at the Hungarian Grand Prix that he was "just useless" and "drove terribly".

So what has not been working for Hamilton at Ferrari?

The raw statistics of Hamilton's first part-season offer no firm conclusions.

The Briton has been out-qualified by Leclerc 12-5 across all qualifying sessions, where a fair comparison can be made, and is on average 0.146 seconds slower.

But the season can be split into two parts - before and after the Miami Grand Prix, the sixth race of the season.

Over the first six races, Hamilton was on average 0.204secs slower than Leclerc, and he qualified ahead only twice - in both sessions in China.

Since the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix in mid-May, Hamilton's average deficit to Leclerc is just 0.078secs, including his two recent difficult weekends in Belgium and Hungary.

In the run up to those two events, Hamilton had out-qualified Leclerc three times in four races.

Most drivers who have switched teams in F1 in recent years have faced some kind of adaption period, and Hamilton's relationship with his engineer Riccardo Adami still does not sound at the level of mutual understanding he enjoyed with Peter Bonnington at Mercedes.

On top of that, Leclerc has been racing for Ferrari since 2019, and is regarded by many as perhaps the fastest driver in F1 over one lap.

Can any driver be said to have "lost it" - as some have started to ask about Hamilton - if they are 0.078secs slower than arguably the fastest driver in the world?

Of course not.

But there are some trends about Hamilton's form in the past few years.

In his first two seasons as team-mate to George Russell at Mercedes, they were separated by hundredths of a second on average qualifying pace, in 2022 in Hamilton's favour, in 2023 in Russell's.

Last year, though, something happened. Russell thrashed Hamilton 18-5 in qualifying at an average advantage of 0.171secs.

Hamilton consoled himself with the fact that he had told Mercedes he was leaving for Ferrari before the season had even started, so the year was always going to be difficult.

Even so, the remarks Hamilton made in Hungary this year were reminiscent of those he occasionally made in 2024, such as when he said at the penultimate race in Qatar that he was "definitely not fast any more".

It's common for Hamilton to react in an emotional way when he cannot explain why he's not as quick as he expects; somewhere along the way, he has lost confidence, and is questioning himself.

Why the focus on qualifying? Firstly, it provides a reference for absolute speed. Beyond that, not only has Hamilton always prided himself on his qualifying, but he is also the all-time record pole winner by far more than he is the race record holder. He has 105 wins to Michael Schumacher's 91, but 104 poles to Schumacher's 68.

And until losing the qualifying battle to Russell over their three years together, no driver had ever come out on top against Hamilton over their time as team-mates.

The only person who even got close was Fernando Alonso, who was just 0.003secs off him in 2007. And, like Hamilton, he is an all-time great.

Late braking and gaining time in the corner-entry phase has been Hamilton's stock-in-trade during his career.

But he has made no secret of the fact that he does not particularly get on with the current generation of cars.

Until 2021, F1 cars had flat floors, were higher at the rear than the front, and had softer suspension.

Hamilton would use the rise in rear ride-height during braking, and the subsequent shift in aerodynamic balance that generated more front grip, to rotate the car. His ability to balance on the edge of adhesion in the braking-entry phase at a higher speed than almost anyone else made him stand out.

The cars introduced in 2022 have shaped underbodies, using so-called venturi tunnels to generate downforce through ground effect. They have to run low and stiff to work at their best.

Attacking corners in the way Hamilton did previously doesn't work. A different style is required. Drivers talk about needing to brake earlier and roll speed into the corner to best exploit the underbody downforce.

Hamilton seems not to have been able to adapt as readily as others to this, or at least has not been able to differentiate himself as much. But why? Until the last few years, after all, he was renowned for his adaptability.

Hamilton's specific problem with the Ferrari this year is that he is lacking confidence in the rear during braking and corner entry.

Ferrari have introduced a series of upgrades in recent races - a new floor in Austria and in Belgium a new rear suspension, which seems to be limiting lift so the rear ride-height stays in a smaller window for a more optimum aerodynamic position.

Leclerc said in Hungary that he now finds the car more predictable, so that on a qualifying lap he is able to "play with the limit a bit more".

But so far this does not seem to have translated into the car speaking the same language as Hamilton, who was more than 0.2secs slower than Leclerc when he was knocked out of the second qualifying session in Hungary.

When a car is not giving a driver the messages they want, they have to think harder when driving, so the speed does not flow as naturally.

Hamilton turned 40 this year, so it is inevitable that people have started to question whether his relative struggles in the past couple of years are anything to do with age.

The last driver to win a grand prix in his 40s was Nigel Mansell, who was 41 when he took the chequered flag in Australia in 1994 after Michael Schumacher had collided with Damon Hill while disputing the world title.

Alain Prost was 39 when he won his last world title in 1993. Alonso would have won in Monaco in 2023, aged 41, had his Aston Martin team made the right tyre choice at a pit stop as rain was just starting to hit the circuit.

Mansell, Prost and Alonso all had breaks before their final blast in F1 - Mansell went to IndyCar for a couple of years, Prost had an enforced sabbatical, and Alonso took two years off to explore other categories.

Hamilton has been in F1 non-stop for 19 years. Four years ago he had to suffer the blow of missing out on a record eighth world title in the most controversial circumstances in Abu Dhabi, and he has not had a car competitive enough since to avenge what he regards as an injustice.

And now he has to get up to speed with a new team, with a different culture, against a super-quick team-mate.

Hill says: "Lewis has been doing this his whole life, since he was a kid. Packing your bags, travelling, the jet lag. The 24-race season is really, really hard.

"You can get run down. The question is whether he can sit back and enjoy his time at Ferrari, take a bit of a break, and stop trying to change them. They bought him. They want him to succeed.

"Lewis is looking over at (NFL legend) Tom Brady and people who've inspired him, who kept competitive in their sports for a very long time and extended their careers.

"But there is a point where you burn yourself out. You haven't got any energy left.

"And then you can't clear your mind. You need a very clear mind to race and commit to what is needed.

"Lewis has always considered himself exceptional, which he is. But there are some things that you can't escape, which is the clock."

Talking to ex-F1 drivers who have been through the process themselves, and have discussed it with other sportspeople who have done the same, the age that matters to an athlete is biological, not the number in their passport.

People age in different ways - in body, mindset, vision, reactions, balance, precision - and at different times and speeds.

The brain builds new synapses more slowly, so finds it harder to adjust.

If Hamilton is hitting one or more of these limits, it would explain why he is struggling to adapt as well as he did in the past.

Equally, a successful, experienced driver knows they achieved peak performance with certain ways of assessing and feeling the car. Once this is strongly imprinted in the brain, the older you are, the more difficult it is to change.

If Hamilton has lost even a tiny edge in this way, it would make sense that in a car that has reasonably fast rear movements that are not predictable and progressive, his body and mind cannot cope, accept, adjust and improve as well as they once could.

That would not mean Hamilton could not win again, but it could mean that he won't be as successful as he was unless he can find a car that better suits his driving style.

The rules are changing next year, and cars are going back to flat, stepped bottoms, similar to the kind used before 2022.

If those cars give Hamilton the cues he needs, and allow his inputs to more perfectly communicate with the outputs of the car, then he will still be able to win multiple races and championships, even if what is being seen now is a consequence of age.

At the same time, ageing is a reality no one can escape.

It's one Hill had to confront. In 1998, two years after becoming world champion, he took Jordan to their first victory, at the Belgian Grand Prix. But in 1999 he suddenly found he was no longer competitive.

Hill says: "How does age affect racing drivers? It's a bit like when you're on your holidays. Eventually, you know you're going to have to go home. And the last day of a holiday is really not a holiday at all, is it?

"As a sportsperson, you know there is an end. And that plays on your mind. There's no way you can ignore it. And it's a wrench and a weight to actually think of not doing this thing any more, especially if you love it, and you're good at it.

"But it's no fun doing it when you're not quick. It's no fun being in F1 when you're not winning, if you're expected to win. It is just a horrible, horrible experience. And what are you doing? You're hoping you find the magic solution."