How did Celtic let Champions League dream slip?

1 day ago 2
Media caption,

Brendan Rodgers said Celtic have to stick together after the loss to Kairat

Jack Herrall

BBC Sport Scotland

"All we can do now is look at where we're at as a football club and decide where we want to go."

Brendan Rodgers was contemplative following his side's eye-opening Champions League exit on penalties to Kairat Almaty in Kazakhstan on Tuesday.

From almost beating Bayern Munich just six months ago to now finding themselves at a footballing crossroads, how did Celtic end up missing out on Champions League qualification?

What are Celtic missing out on?

Much has been made of the financial riches on offer for sides who make it to the promised land of Europe's elite competition, but much more than that was on the line for Celtic in Kazakhstan.

Over the last three seasons, the club had made themselves a regular in the competition and were an agonising Alphonso Davies goal away from reaching the knockout phase of last season's competition.

"The Champions League is a wonderful competition," said a crestfallen Rodgers after his side failed to make it for a fourth consecutive season.

"But as we always do we will have to stick together as a squad. It's a tough one to take, but we didn't do enough over the two legs.

"From the first day back they've been brilliant, domestically we've started well, but at this level, even with teams that don't quite have the quality, you still need that little bit of extra finesse and precision."

Qualification for the top-level competition brings around 18m euros (£15.5m) for each club. On top of that, you can add ticket sales, merchandise, additional sponsorship and a whack of corporate cash.

In comparison, dropping into the Europa League takes that 18m euros (£15.5m) to just above 4m euros (£3.46m). A win is worth 450,000 euros (£388,000) instead of 2m euros (£1.73m).

Neither side looked like scoring the vital goal as the tie headed for the shootout, and Celtic captain Callum McGregor made the stark admission that the side didn't deserve to progress.

"We didn't deserve to qualify," he said in the aftermath of the defeat, settled on penalties after a goalless draw in both legs of the tie.

"We have to regroup, we know we have a big game on Sunday [against Rangers] as well.

"It's a real sore one for the club in general in terms of the finances and everything else.

"We still need help, we still need bodies in the door and hopefully the club can do that."

What happened on the night?

Kairat were stuffy, hard to break down, and offered little going forward, but they plotted their way through and held Celtic for 210 minutes before the lottery of the shootout.

James Forrest, Yang and Daizen Maeda started as Celtic's front three but showed no signs of being able to find an effective route to goal. Last summer's big summer signings Adam Idah and Arne Engels were brought on, but yielded a similar result.

"I wouldn't say I'm angry, I'm just very disappointed with what I've seen over the two legs," former Celtic winger Aiden McGeady told BBC Radio Scotland.

"The performances were not good enough. Ultimately it goes back down to forward planning. Fail to prepare, prepare to fail.

"It's been a very difficult watch over the two legs - the quality is not there. If Celtic had got through they would have been very lucky.

"It's a terrible way to go out the Champions League, but it's a stark reminder."

Match momentum

Match momentum measures the swing of the game by comparing each team's threat to see who is more likely to score within that minute.

The above graph shows Celtic - the team in the slim sliver of white along the bottom - were never really a force going forward despite dominating the ball with 67% possession.

Kairat, who have never played in the Champions League proper, are 311th in Uefa's coefficient rankings and, despite Celtic being placed 56th, the Scottish champions failed to push them for most of the second leg.

Celtic registered more passes in the opposition's half and a higher number of shots on target, with five to Kairat's four, but registered only 0.5 expected goals until the hosts noticeably tired in extra time.

There was a golden chance for Maeda to win the tie in the 85th minute, but blazed his finish over the bar, and his lack of composure in front of goal summed up how disjointed the side was across both legs.

"There was a lack of creativity in the final third, set-plays were poor, not enough movement so pressure is on," former Celtic midfielder John Collins added on BBC Radio Scotland.

"Everybody in the whole country is shocked Celtic haven't recruited at the top of the pitch.

"The biggest disappointment for everybody associated with Celtic is that they've been knocked out by a very average team.

"Kairat are not a Champions League team."

Media caption,

Sportsound: Celtic crash out of the Champions League play-off

What does this mean now for Celtic?

Celtic have just under a week to try to appease their disgruntled support and bolster the ranks.

Their next fixture is the first Old Firm of the season on Sunday and, despite starting the season stronger than Rangers, they must not let the momentum swing come lunchtime or risk a revolt from the punters.

A shot in the Europa League may end up bearing more fruit than a Champions League outing, but that perspective will take time to set in, if it even does come into fruition at all.

When asked if being in the Europa League will alter their transfer business before the end of the window, Rodgers added: "I haven't a clue. I really don't know."

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