Las Vegas Raiders face another stern test in playoff-hungry Texans

Las Vegas Raiders head coach Pete Carroll heads off the field after an NFL football game against the Denver Broncos, Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) Photo by: Steve Marcus

The Raiders had an all-time moribund performance in last week’s 31-0 loss at Philadelphia.

They managed just 75 total yards, the fewest for the franchise in a game in 64 years, and an average of 1.8 yards per play, the NFL’s fifth-worst mark in the last 15 seasons. And things could get worse this week with a second straight road game, this one against the NFL’s best defense through 15 weeks by expected points added (EPA) per play.

Texans third-year edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. ranks second in the NFL with 85 pressures and will likely finish second in Defensive Player of the Year voting to Cleveland’s Myles Garrett. He’s surrounded by several other stars including fellow edge rusher Danielle Hunter, who actually has 1.5 sacks more than Anderson, and shutdown corner Derek Stingley Jr. It’s difficult to imagine this being the spot where the Raiders’ offense can turn around what’s been a historically futile campaign.      

Favorable matchup: Maxx Crosby’s never-ending motor vs. Texans’ up-and-down offense

The Raiders’ superstar edge rusher played every defensive snap for the fourth consecutive game, and seventh time this season, against the Eagles. It’s a feat that increasingly rare for any defensive lineman, but Crosby not only never comes off the field but also rarely fails to make an impact on every play. Few if any around him have done the same, however, and it’s starting to take a toll. Crosby has lashed out and yelled at teammates on a few different occasions during the Raiders’ current eight-game losing streak. If the Raiders’ defensive captain can inspire a few teammates, the unit might have a real chance at slowing at Texans’ offense that’s been improved lately but still falls mediocre at best on the year as a whole. Houston’s offense rates 23rd in the NFL by EPA per play and is dealing with a cluster injury at running back with rookie standout Woody Marks most notably hobbled. Houston’s offensive line is also a liability, though it’s rose to a No. 20 ranking by Pro Football Focus’ metrics after bottoming out to dead last in the NFL earlier in the season.

Problematic matchup: Texans’ divisional and playoff pushes vs. Raiders’ apparent apathy

The usual hope for a long-eliminated team like the Raiders in a late-season game like this is to sneak up on a stronger side that might not be fully focused on the task at hand. But it seems highly unlikely here that the Texans will be overlooking the Raiders. Consistent intensity has been a hallmark of third-year coach DeMeco Ryan’s culture, for one. More importantly, the Texans can’t afford a loss as they look to chase down the Jacksonville Jaguars in hopes of winning their third straight AFC South title or at least solidify their playoff spot via wild card. This is the biggest favorite the Texans have ever been in a game under Ryans, but they’ve gone 3-1 in four previous contests laying at least a touchdown including a 40-20 drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals last week. Houston has played hard regardless of the situation in every game over the last three years while Las Vegas’ effort has been questionable at best recently.    

Gamebreaker: Cornerback Eric Stokes

Pro Football Focus grades Stokes as the Raiders’ second-best defensive player this season, a standing that matches the eye test. The former first-round pick by the Green Bay Packers who signed in free agency this offseason is having a career year where he’s been stingy with whomever he’s matched up against on the other side of the line. It should be a challenge to maintain that success this week considering he should frequently encounter No. 1 Houston receiver Nico Collins, who’s been on a tear since returning from concussion protocol midseason. He’s averaging 5.5 receptions and 94.5 receiving yards per game in the last seven weeks. Collins rates as the NFL’s sixth-best receiver this season per PFF. Stokes sits No. 19 in the cornerback rankings. No other Raiders’ cornerback has been consistently reliable, though the current starter to the opposite of Stokes — rookie Darien Porter — has occasionally flashed potential since getting on the field more often in the last several weeks.     

Big Number: 41%

The Raiders are currently the favorite to land the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 41% chance, according to the DVOA rankings. The New York Giants are the second-most likely team to pick first with a 21.3% likelihood. The Giants and Raiders meet next Sunday at Allegiant Stadium in a game that could determine which team winds up with the league’s worst record this season and, therefore, gets the top pick. Many fans are now rooting for the Raiders’ struggles to continue  as a win down the stretch of the season could be counterintuitive and inhibit their chances at selecting the best possible player to turn around the franchise. The Raiders haven’t held the top draft selection since 2007 when they infamously chose Jamarcus Russell. That’s also the last time they used a first-round pick on a quarterback, a drought likely to end this year. Heisman Trophy winning Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is currently an odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick at as high as -200 (i.e. risking $200 to win $100) at sportsbooks with Oregon quarterback Dante Moore priced as the second most likely choice.

Best Bet (5-9): Geno Smith under 189.5 pass yards

The Raiders’ total offense number has fallen below this mark in two of the last three games, and only went over against the Broncos two weeks ago in garbage time. The betting market struggles to accurately price extremes, and the Raiders’ offense is an outlier on the wrong end for how poorly it’s played. It shouldn’t get on track against the Texans. Smith has been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks but, even if he taps into some of the form that made him successful in the past for one game, there are hurdles to clear. The Raiders’ offensive line finally fell to dead last in the NFL by PFF’s rankings last week. Las Vegas also has a scarcity of receiving options beyond tight end Brock Bowers. The silver and black’s suffering isn’t over yet.