NASCAR betting: 3 favorites and 2 long shots at Dollar Tree 301

NASCAR betting: 3 favorites and 2 long shots at Dollar Tree 301 Adam Burke VSiN August 22, 2026 - 3:17 pm The Dollar Tree 301 will be held this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, marking the 25th race of the 26‑race regular season and the penultimate event before the Chase. The following week’s Coke Zero 400 at Daytona will give drivers their final opportunity to qualify for the Cup Series playoffs. The Loudon circuit is a 1.058‑mile oval that previously hosted two events each year a decade ago. Since 2017, only one race has been held annually at the venue. After a Saturday night race last week, the series returns to a Sunday afternoon start. Anticipating adverse weather, NASCAR officials announced on Friday that the start time would be moved up to 2 p.m. ET, one hour earlier than originally planned. Recent winners at the track include Tyler Reddick (5 victories), Denny Hamlin (4), Chase Elliott (2), Shane van Gisbergen (2), Ryan Blaney (2), Corey Heim (2), Ty Gibbs (2), Joey Logano (2), Daniel Suarez, Carson Hocevar, and Chase Briscoe. Although race wins no longer automatically secure a playoff berth, the top 16 drivers in points—regardless of win total—remain eligible for the championship. As of now, the projected playoff field consists of Hamlin, Blaney, Gibbs, Reddick, Briscoe, Elliott, Christopher Bell, Larson, Logano, Chris Buescher, Hocevar, William Byron, Suarez, Bubba Wallace, Austin Cindric, and van Gisbergen. Ryan Preece trails van Gisbergen by 50 points for the final spot, while Ross Chastain is 63 points behind the cutoff. Cindric, who recorded his second top‑five finish of the season last week, sits seven points ahead of van Gisbergen for 15th place. Last weekend, Joey Logano captured his second victory of the year at Richmond in the Cook Out 400. It was his second win in four races, adding to his earlier triumph at North Wilkesboro Speedway. Although wins no longer guarantee a playoff place, they continue to earn valuable points this season. An unexpected winner at Loudon or Daytona could act as a “bid stealer,” borrowing a phrase from March Madness. Christopher Bell may finally break through for his first win of the season at New Hampshire; he has two wins, three top‑five finishes, and four top‑10 finishes in six starts at the track. Across his 32‑race career, Denny Hamlin has three victories but boasts 11 top‑five and 19 top‑10 finishes, giving him an average finish of 9.9—the best among active drivers. Brad Keselowski, whose average finish sits at 11th, has two wins in 25 starts, with 10 top‑five and 16 top‑10 finishes. He currently ranks 19th in points with 489, well shy of the 567‑point cutoff held by van Gisbergen. For additional insight, Steve Makinen’s race simulations are available on the NASCAR Hub at VSiN.com. His latest projection lists Logano as the top pick, citing his recent strong runs; Blaney follows in second, with Bell third. The simulation identifies the most attractive long shots as Tyler Reddick, who won five of the season’s first nine races but has not visited victory lane since, and Bubba Wallace, who sits 14th in points and may look to be aggressive this weekend. Wallace led the most laps and won the second stage of the Daytona 500, giving him reason to feel confident about retaining his position ahead of next week’s Daytona showdown. Looking forward, the South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway is slated for Sunday, October 4, at 2:30 p.m. PT and will serve as the fifth race of the ten‑race Cup Series Chase.