NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas pick and preview of Florida vs. Houston

Houston's L.J. Cryer (4) celebrates with teammates including Desert Pines High graduate Milos Uzan (7) after Houston beat Duke in the national semifinals at the Final Four of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Saturday, April 5, 2025, in San Antonio. Photo by: ASSOCIATED PRESS

Houston was the first and only future bet to win the NCAA Tournament that I wrote about this year.

Star Cougars guard L.J. Cryer was the first and longest future bet to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player that I wrote about. I played Houston +5 against Duke in Saturday’s Final Four pick’em column.

I therefore had to be loving Houston’s furious rally from down seven points to stun Duke outright in the second national semifinal, right?

Not so much.

I was definitely cheering for the Cougars’ rally to result in a cover against the Blue Devils but also deep down hoping it fell short of the outright victory.

That’s because I also had a future position on Duke to win the national championship, and figured it would be a much more formidable foe for Florida.

The Blue Devils would have been a clear favorite against the Gators; the Cougars are more or less a coinflip.

Sports books had Duke laying anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5 points against Florida in national championship look-ahead lines. Houston was mostly a 1.5-point underdog to Florida, the same price that reopened when the matchup was set and has largely stayed intact.

So, bring on the sweat tonight. I could conceivably cut down on the suspense by arbitraging with a bet on Florida to lock in a profit off the Houston future.

There’s a strong argument to be made that playing some back on the Gators is the most optimal approach. But my philosophy has always been to only take the other side of the future if I find value there.

I’ve worked through several similar situations in Talking Points in the past, including recently in this year’s Super Bowl, and now will use this space to do it again with the final NCAA Tournament pick’em of the year.

 Read below for my pick and analysis on the national championship game point spread to conclude our 13^th consecutive year of handicapping every tournament game. This year’s record with one game to go sits at 34-31-1 (15-11-1 on plays, 11-8 on leans, 8-12-1 on guesses). The line is the best available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Florida -1.5 vs. Houston. The way the Gators and Cougars reached the final game was emblematic of their seasons. Florida got there with flash, flourishing in the second half to pull away with a 79-73 victory as closing 2.5-point favorites over Auburn. Houston meanwhile embraced the hurt, grinding its way to a comeback for the ages in a 72-71 upset of Duke as closing 4.5-point underdogs.

The two national finalists play divergent styles, and the side that implements its preference in the championship will have a major advantage.

That doesn’t mean Houston is sure to win if it’s a slog or Florida will fly if the game is wide-open though. It’s not that simple.

The Cougars have shown they can not only survive but thrive against teams perceived to have the edge of offensive talent. In fact, no team in the tournament has faced a tougher slate of opposing offenses with Duke, Sweet 16 opponent Purdue and round of 32 nemesis Gonzaga all in the nation’s top seven in scoring efficiency.

Similarly, the Gators are rarely if ever pushed around. They combined to go 4-1 straight-up and against the spread this season against Auburn and Tennessee — two teams with similar length, physicality and approaches to Houston.  

So which team will feel more comfortable in the other’s wheelhouse?

I think it’s Houston. The Cougars’ adjusted defensive rating on kenpom.com is more than five points better than the Gators’ rate. Florida’s adjusted offensive rating is less than five points better than Houston’s number.

That’s a small margin, but that’s to be expected in a national championship game, especially one in a season as top-heavy as this year’s where the No. 1 seeds were so far above everyone else.

Most would say Florida has the more talented roster but I’d argue it’s Houston that deserves the talent edge. Part of the Gators’ magic in the tournament has been the direction of coach Todd Golden, one of the sharpest tacticians in the sport.

Florida’s second-half turnarounds — particularly against the likes of Auburn, Sweet 16 opponent Maryland and round of 32 opponent Connecticut — are not coincidences. But Golden might meet his match in Houston coach Kelvin Sampson, who’s looking for a national title to cap what’s already been a Hall of Fame-worthy career where he’s outwitted almost everyone in his way.

There’s not a single major publicly-available projection system — kenpom, barttorvik.com, etc. — that favors Florida in this matchup. And I’ve been higher on Houston and lower than Florida than most of said systems the whole year.

It should come as no surprise then that I make Houston a 1.5-point favorite against Florida. That’s far from a guarantee the Cougars will win, or even compete, but also a big enough gap that I can’t bring myself to take a bad number with the Gators.

If I hedge off my Houston ticket at all, it will come with a live bet in game if Florida ever falls behind by a decent margin and becomes an underdog.

This national championship should be close and memorable, but I believe Houston is the slightly likelier winner.    

Lean: Houston +1.5.