NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday's games

Texas Tech forward Darrion Williams (5) celebrates after scoring during overtime in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA college basketball tournament game against Arkansas, Thursday, March 27, 2025, in San Francisco. Photo by: ASSOCIATED PRESS

Barring a shocking change over the next week and a half, a large part of how the 2025 NCAA Tournament will be remember is already cemented.

The event’s legacy will largely revolve on chalk, the favorites rolling through the overmatched teams. The two regions that will conclude today, the East and West, played a large part in establishing that trend.

Favorites have gone 23-5 straight-up (though notably only 14-14 against the spread) in the East and West, and the upsets haven’t been all that earth-shattering either.

The only two upsets in the East were by a pair of teams that closed at +1, No. 9 seed Baylor over No. 8 seed Mississippi State in the round of 64 and No. 6 seed BYU over No. 11 seed VCU in the round of 32. The West was slightly more unpredictable but almost solely based on the Sweet 16 run by No. 10 seed Arkansas, which was far from a Cinderella story in terms of roster talent.

Could it all change today? It’s possible. West No. 1 seed Florida and East No. 1 seed Alabama are near identically priced with an implied win probability of around 70% over No. 3 seed Texas Tech and No. 2 seed Alabama, respectively.

Either of the two going down before the Final Four in San Antonio, Texas, would register as the type of major surprise March Madness has so far lacked.

I think one of the two top teams is much riper for an upset.    

Read below to find out which one with picks and analysis on both of Saturday’s games. Lines are the best available on the chosen side and picks are listed in rough order of confidence. The record picking every game through the first three rounds stands at 27-28-1 (13-10 on plays, 8-8 on leans and 6-10-1 on guesses).

No. 1 seed Florida -7 vs. No. 3 seed Texas Tech. This is the matchup I dreamed about betting ever since the bracket was revealed on Selection Sunday. To me, Florida looked like the most — if not only — vulnerable No. 1 seed with its reckoning potentially coming Saturday in San Francisco against an evenly-matched-on-paper, underrated juggernaut in Texas Tech. Then the first three rounds happened. Both teams have looked shaky at times, but the Gators have more resembled the wrecking ball they were during the regular season at crucial moments. There’s a bigger reason to be concerned about Texas Tech’s suddenly inefficient, jump shooting-challenged offense. And yet, I can’t help but value the last five months of games more than a small sample of tournament play. At no other point this season would the Red Raiders be this big of an underdog to the Gators. The first spread to appear on this game in town after Saturday’s Sweet 16 was Florida -4.5. That might have been a little low but closer to reality than this bloated number. Play: Texas Tech +7.

No. 1 seed Duke -7 vs. No. 2 seed Alabama.  The Blue Devils and Crimson Tide tore up the nets Thursday in Newark, N.J. by collectively hitting 36 of 70 three-point shots. Both teams are so talented offensively that it would be unwise to guarantee that they can’t stage a repeat, but it must be considered highly unlikely. The Crimson Tide hit their top range of 3-point outcomes — an NCAA Tournament record 25 triples —  against a BYU team lacking on the perimeter defensively and all too willing to indulge them in a full-court track meet. Duke knocked down an even higher percentage — 11 of 19 — with help from a halfcourt buzzing-beating heave at the end of the first half and a few other low-percentage looks that happened to fall. Despite the astronomical total of over/under 173.5, this matchup should be slower-paced with Duke more interested in operating in the halfcourt and Alabama having drastically improved its defensive performances. That style would make points more valuable. I made the point spread Duke -6.5, so the slightest of value might be on Alabama. Guess: Alabama +7.