NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Sunday's games

Houston guard Milos Uzan (7) looks to pass the ball against Jackson State during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game, Monday, Nov 4, 2024, in Houston. Houston defeated Jackson State 97-40. Photo by: ASSOCIATED PRESS

A pair of future bets are on the line in today’s two Elite Eight games.

It wasn’t exactly bold, but I fired on No. 1 seed Houston to win the Midwest Region at +135 (i.e. risking $100 to win $135) and No. 1 seed Auburn to win the South Region at +105 coming into the tournament.

It sure would bolster the bottom line on what’s been a solid tournament — the plays are profitable and three games over .500 — and provide some momentum heading into the Final Four.

The bad news is, the betting market only implies about a 41% chance both No. 1 seeds win today. It’s been a favorite-heavy tournament, but a strong crop of No. 2 seeds (including today’s pair of Tennessee and Michigan State) have as much to do with that as those on the top line.

I could technically just arbitrage the futures and take the points with both underdogs to lock in a small profit and shoot for a middle.

But March Madness is a time to go big, and I’d rather not cut into valuable bets. Unlike several other events in Talking Points over the years, I’m choosing to ignore my pre-existing positions this time around and just back the teams that I believe hold value.     

Read below to find out which teams I landed on in Sunday’s’s games. Lines are the best available on the chosen side and picks are listed in rough order of confidence. The record picking every game through the first three rounds stands at 30-29-1 (13-10 on plays, 9-8 on leans and 8-11-1 on guesses).

No. 1 seed Auburn -4.5 vs. No. 2 seed Michigan State. Auburn looked to be in trouble down nine with 12:26 remaining to Michigan in the Sweet 16. Then the Tigers’ offense ignited for a 12-0 run in just more than three minutes. It was the kind of stretch they’ve been capable of all year riding the inside-out combination of Johni Broome and Tahaad Pettiford. It’s also the kind of stretch Michigan State has struggled to put together. The Spartans have worked themselves out of sketchy positions even in the tournament but it’s been a lot more labored and they’ve ultimately leaned on their toughness and discipline to eke out close games at the end. Blasting through opponents is more predictive going forward, and Auburn is the only team in this matchup that’s shown an ability to do that. Michigan State will present problems defensively, but the offensive edge in this game is too slanted in Auburn’s favor.  Lean: Auburn -4.5.

No. 1 seed Houston -2.5 vs. No. 2 seed Tennessee. This point spread widely opened -3.5 after Friday’s Sweet 16 games before a steady move to Tennessee. That should come as no surprise to anyone who’s bet college basketball all year. The market has loved the Volunteers, and mostly been rewarded for it considering their 19-17-1 against the spread. Sentiment has been more up and down on the Cougars, though they’re a near identical 19-16-2 against the spread. Anecdotally, buying the dips on Houston has been a profitable strategy. This can be considered a dip, albeit a small one. The Cougars have played poorly the last three halves. They barely held off Gonzaga and failed to cover -5.5 in an 81-76 win in and then needed coach Kelvin Sampson to save them with an all-time inbounds play to edge Purdue 62-60 as 9-point favorites. The last two rounds can’t inspire much confidence but, on the season as a whole, Houston has arguably been the most efficient team in the nation. It should be at least a 3-point favorite against any non-No. 1 seed. The lone -2.5 available in town is juiced at -120 (at Boyd Sports) but that’s mathematically a slightly better bet than -3 at -110.  Lean: Houston -2.5.