NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the East Region

Duke fell short of grabbing the NCAA Tournament’s overall No. 1 seed and out of being the consensus futures favorite in sports books on Selection Sunday but might have landed something better.

The Blue Devils have the easiest route to the Final Four in San Antonio, Texas, according to the betting market. They’re priced as low as -140 (i.e. risking $140 to win $100) to win the East Region, edging West Region No. 1 seed Florida at around -125 as the likeliest eventual national semifinalist.

It’s not that the East is all that soft though. For all the annual griping about the tournament selection committee, it actually appeared to balance the four regions better than usual with no bona fide “Group of Death” that looks particularly brutal.  

The contending teams in the East might be flawed, but they’re also dangerous in their own way. Namely, they’re dangerous offensively.

The Blue Devils are annually regarded as more of a high-paced, highlight machine but, for much of this season, they were actually better at stopping opponents than lighting up than scoreboard. Duke led the nation in defensive efficiency for a portion of the season before narrowly slipping to fourth headed into the tournament per kenpom.com.

The defensive metrics are where the Blue Devils really separate from the rest of the East, which is otherwise full of opponents who could match their scoring output.

Five other teams in the East rate in the nation’s top 16 in offensive efficiency in addition to Duke at third — No. 2 seed Alabama in fourth, No. 6 seed BYU in 11th, No. 4 seed Arizona in 12^th, No. 3 seed Wisconsin in 13^th and No. 8 seed Baylor at 16^th.  

BYU is the only other team with as much as a top 20 defense, sitting at No. 14.

Of course, Duke doesn’t have to outgun all of them to reign in the East. The Blue Devils will only have to outlast one team from the particularly explosive bottom half of the bracket if they get that far.

But maybe that’s no guarantee with the sprain to superstar likely National Player of the Year Cooper Flagg’s left ankle. Duke coach Jon Scheyer has been adamant that Flagg will be back and that the target date is its first-round game Friday, but that could be public-facing optimism.  

If Flagg’s return is delayed or he’s not at 100%, Duke becomes much more vulnerable as evidenced in the two games it played without him in the ACC Tournament. The Blue Devils wound up winning both contests but they blew a big lead to South Region No. 11 seed North Carolina and trailed at halftime against South No. 8 seed Louisville.

The Tar Heels and Cardinals are formidable offensively, but not on the level of the teams the Blue Devils will likely face all the way from the round of 32 to the Elite 8.

Duke will have to rely on Flagg and its defense to live up to the betting odds’ characterization of it as most probable Final Four participant.   

This is the second entry in a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament from a betting perspective. Read below for against the spread picks and a brief analysis on every first-round game in the East Region. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side. Check back after Wednesday’s First Four game for an updated selection on the new matchup.  

No. 8 seed Mississippi State -1.5 vs. No. 9 seed Baylor. At the start or in the middle of the season, Mississippi State might have confounded Baylor with its swarming defense. But the Bears have made definitive strides down the stride and the Bulldogs’ defensive intensity has lagged. Baylor freshman guard V.J. Edgecombe has looked every bit deserving his top-five NBA Draft pick hype lately and should be fully unlocked for the tournament. Play: Baylor +1.5.

No. 5 seed Oregon -7.5 vs. No. 12 seed Liberty. Sure, Oregon can beat almost anyone on a good day as indicated by its much-cited upsets of Alabama and Texas A&M at the MGM Grand Garden Arena late last year. But the Ducks can also get blown out by any decent team as evidenced by four double-digit losses in Big Ten play and another eight-point defeat to lowly Minnesota. Liberty passes the test as a decent team and has the defense and three-point shooting prowess to potentially make a surprise run.  Play: Liberty +7.5.

No. 7 seed St. Mary’s -4.5 vs. No. 10 seed Vanderbilt. Like so many teams that have ended previous St. Mary’s tournament berths, Vanderbilt should be able to make use of a major athletic advantage. The Commodores play an extremely smart style under first-year coach Mark Byington to cut into another edge the Gaels typically possess. They could also be in line for some positive regression with opponents having shot an unreasonably high 36.9% from three-point range against them on the season.  Play: Vanderbilt +4.5.

No. 16 seed American -2.5 vs. No. 16 seed Mount St. Mary’s. These two Washington D.C. area schools are semi-regular opponents with American having won the last four meetings dating back to 2019. While historic matchup trends aren’t predictive, in this case, the Eagles’ series winning streak is indicative of the trajectory of the two programs. American typically recruits and plays at a slightly higher level. It’s a minor miracle Mount St. Mary’s won the Metro Athletic Conference tournament given its turnover and injury woes. Play: American -2.5.

No. 3 seed Wisconsin -17.5 vs. No. 14 seed Montana. The Grizzlies are an annual fade in non-conference postseason tournaments as they’ve amazingly not covered in a game in one since 2010. But this year’s team seems better equipped than ever before under long-time coach Travis DeCurie with a more efficient offense and a respectable pace employed throughout the season. Wisconsin has executed at a high level all season but doesn’t have one of its best rosters in terms of talent to overwhelm opponents and bank blowouts.  Lean: Montana +17.5.

No. 4 seed Arizona -14.5 vs. No. 13 seed Akron. Arizona is schizophrenic, looking like a Final Four contender with crisp offense one game and then a sloppy mess taking ill-advised shots the next. That’s not the type of profile preferred for a team laying a big point spread. Akron is more fundamentally sound with a couple three-point sharpshooters including Tavari Johnson that give it a fighting chance against anybody.  Lean: Akron +14.5.

No. 6 seed BYU -2.5 vs. No. 11 seed VCU. The Rams have all the characteristics anyone could want out of a possible Cinderella team, but they wound up with a brutal draw. Having to travel to elevation in Denver to take on a team accustomed to the environment led by a potential NBA Draft lottery pick in Egor Demin does not set them up for success. VCU still might have been worth consideration at sports books that opened the spread BYU -3.5, but the line move in its direction isn’t justified. Guess: BYU -2.5.

No. 2 seed Alabama -23.5 vs. No. 15 seed Robert Morris. The Crimson Tide feasts on overmatched teams like the Colonials, but there’s reason to believe they could resist pushing to run up the score this time around. They’ll be playing without big man Grant Nelson and have been banged-up all season, meaning the priority might be getting into what shapes up to be a more competitive round of 32 matchup as fresh as possible. Guess: Robert Morris +23.5.