NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Final Four

Duke forward Cooper Flagg (2) reacts during the first half of a Sweet 16 round NCAA college basketball tournament game, Thursday, March 27, 2025, in Newark, N.J. Photo by: Frank Franklin II / AP

The victor of the second Final Four game tonight in San Antonio will go on to cut down the nets Monday night.

Either East Region champion Duke or Midwest Region champion Houston is bound to be the 2025 national champions.

Of course, it’s not really that absolute. It would be foolish to say neither West Region champion Florida, which came into the tournament as the favorite in the futures market at most sports book, nor South Region winner Auburn, the No. 1 team for most of the year, has any chance.

But I’d favor either the Blue Devils or the Cougars over either the Gators and the Tigers. So I’m working under the assumption that the second game is the one that really matters for the purposes of building a Most Outstanding Player future portfolio.

Ahead of the Sweet 16 last week, I placed a bet on Houston guard L.J. Cryer to win the award at 14-to-1 in the column. Give me Duke’s Cooper Flagg at +115 (i.e. risking $100 to win $115) at the SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas today, and I’ll ride with the pair with guaranteed live action heading into Monday night.

Duke is as low as -110 (i.e. risking $110 to win $100) to win the title at sportsbooks around town. The near 6% delta between its championship odds and Flagg’s Most Outstanding Player price is way too rich.

It would take something truly extraordinary for trendy sleeper teammates like Kon Knueppel (30-to-1) or Tyrese Proctor (50-to-1) to surpass Flagg. The voters have historically gravitated toward the face of programs for the award even if they play slightly below expectation.

From an efficiency standpoint, Flagg has found no equal in college basketball all season. It’s extremely unlikely to start now if Duke is as imminent to win the title as the market implies.

Read below for my picks and analysis on the two Final Four games. Plays are listed in order of confidence and labeled with one of three confidence categories (plays, leans and guesses). Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas. The column’s record picking every game in the tournament stands at 33-30-1 (14-10-1 on plays, 11-8 on leans and 8-12-1 on guesses).

No. 1 seed Duke -5.5 vs. No. 1 seed Houston. I have a history of undervaluing the nation’s most dominant team when it comes Final Four time in this column. See Connecticut in each of the last two years where I expected the Huskies to win but refused to pay a premium on the point spread, ultimately to my detriment.

Perhaps I’m making the same mistake again but I can’t get this number anywhere close to Duke -5.5 based on the season-long data. I’ve only got the Blue Devils as 2.5 points better than the Cougars on a neutral site like the Alamodome.

These might be the two best defensive teams in the nation — Houston is the consensus No. 1 by the metrics but Duke was ahead of it at times throughout the season  — and they both play a well below-average tempo.

That makes points more valuable with a higher likelihood that there’s not enough possessions for either team to really pull away.

Duke hasn’t encountered a defense anywhere near the level of Houston’s, especially not in the tournament.

The Blue Devils didn’t face an easy path in trucking through the East Region with a 3-1 against the spread record, but the teams they faced were all more efficient offensively with defensive holes. The Cougars are lights-out on both ends of the court. They have a reputation for not being as lethal offensively, but it’s inaccurate this year.

Houston has the highest 3-point shooting percentage of the four teams left, and it rivals Florida for the best backcourt with Cryer and Desert Pines High graduate Milos Uzan. This should come down to the final minute. Duke might pull out the victory but the margin won’t be large.  Play: Houston +5.

No. 1 seed Auburn +3 vs. No. 1 seed Florida. The Tigers closed an 11-point favorite against the Gators on Feb. 8 ahead of a 90-81 loss that snapped their 14-game winning streak.

A 14-point swing in the line is nearly unprecedented, especially when not even switching from one team’s home floor to another in less than two months.

Has Florida really improved that drastically to merit such a shift in perception? The Gators are certainly much better now — and star shooting guard Alijah Martin missed the first game against the Tigers — but their recent uptick might be overblown. They were incredible in the SEC Tournament and blew out three straight opponents, but that was three weeks ago. Florida is only 1-3 against the spread in the tournament and could have easily lost to either Connecticut in the round of 32 or Texas Tech in the Elite Eight.

Auburn is 3-1 against the spread in the tournament with the only noncover in an 83-63 opening-round win over Alabama State as 31.5-point favorites. I made this number Florida -1.5, and suspect the surplus in the market on the Gators is because of injury concerns with Auburn Player of the Year candidate Johni Broome. But Broome has gutted through injuries for the last four months and performed better than expected on a near-weekly basis while dealing with elbow and ankle ailments. There’s no reason this game should be any different.

This is probably more of a lean in reality but college basketball is about to be over. Let’s upgrade it and gamble. Play: Auburn +3.