NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Midwest Region

The betting market and the analytics community agree: There’s a historically dominant set of No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament this year.

The delta between South Region No. 1 seed Auburn, East Region No. 1 seed Duke, Midwest Region No. 1 seed Houston and West Region No. 1 seed Florida and everyone else in the tournament is sizable.

Any four of those teams would be more than a 3-point favorite against any other team in the nation. It’s not usually that way, and not even uncommon for the odds to favor a No. 2, No. 3 or No. 4 seed over against one or two of the top seeds.

Not this year.

Future odds also give a glimpse of how much expectation is being thrust upon the No. 1 seeds. The over/under wins for No. 1 seeds is set at 13.5 at every sports book offering that proposition-wagering option and juiced as high as -150 (i.e. risking $150 to win $100) to the over.

The prop asking bettors whether a No. 1 seed tournament will win the tournament is as high as -275, implying more than a 70% chance at one of those teams prevailing after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage.

The odds are 10-to-1 that all four No. 1 seeds reach the Final Four for the second time in history but, anecdotally, a higher percentage of people than that are filling out their brackets that way.

The only No. 1 seed that seems to be drawing any skepticism is Houston. The Cougars opened as high as +140 (i.e. risking $100 to win $140) to come out of the Midwest but have since been bet down to anywhere from +110 to +125.

The Cougars spent most of the year regarded as a notch below the Tigers and Blue Devils, and the Gators’ recent ascent has also elevated them past the Big 12 regular season and tournament champions.

Houston is back to as high as 6-to-1 to win the tournament, an astounding number for a team that’s won 13 games in a row and only has a single regulation loss (to Auburn). It doesn’t help that the Cougars have a reputation for tournament underperformance — a sentiment they won’t have an easy time breaking against a region that narrowly rates as this year’s toughest by the market.

Tennessee, another team criticized for traditionally falling short in the tournament, grades out as the top No. 2 seed. If the Midwest bracket holds to form, the Volunteers are the rare team that wouldn’t feel uncomfortable in the Cougars’ preferred defensive, physical style of game in the Elite Eight.

Tennessee tries to implement the same philosophy on opponents.

It failed to do so twice this year against No. 3 seed Kentucky, which has shown it can beat anyone when its offense is in sync and also has wins over Duke and Florida.

No. 4 seed Purdue is coming off a national runner-up finish in last year’s tournament with many of the same players other than 2023 and 2024 National Player of the Year Zach Edey.

The Boilermakers’ offense did not fall off as much as expected this year without Edey. The same is true for No. 5 seed Clemson, which made a memorable Elite Eight run last year and enters this year in an even better position despite losing leader PJ Hall.

Even No. 7 seed UCLA and No. 8 seed Gonzaga are top-line programs with recent Final Four appearances.

The makeup of the Midwest makes it easy to see why most view Houston as the most vulnerable No. 1 seed but that might not be fair. The Cougars have been just as strong if not better than their more popular peers.

This is the third entry in a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament from a betting perspective. Read below for against the spread picks and a brief analysis on every first-round game in the Midwest Region. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side. Check back after Wednesday’s First Four game for updated selections on the new matchup.

No. 4 seed Purdue -7.5 vs. No. 13 seed High Point. Action has poured in on the Panthers to drive them down from as high as a 10-point underdog. It all feels a bit disrespectful to Purdue, which has its defensive shortcomings but ones that pale in comparison to those on the other side. High Point rates No. 227 in the nation in defensive efficiency per kenpom.com, and it doesn’t have star power like Purdue’s Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn to make up for it. Play: Purdue -7.5.

No. 5 seed Clemson -8 vs. No. 12 seed McNeese. The talent gap in this game is not as significant as the names might conjure as veteran coach Will Wade has built a power-conference worthy roster in Louisiana led by Syracuse transfer point guard Quadir Copeland. The Cowboys got blitzed as a trendy upset No. 12 seed pick last year against Gonzaga, but the stylistic troubles in that matchup were predictable. A pairing with a more methodical, less explosive Clemson side is far more advantageous. Play: McNeese +8.

No. 7 seed UCLA -5.5 vs. No. 10 seed Utah State. The Bruins have been mistake-prone throughout the year, and that doesn’t pair well up against Utah State’s penchant for shifting through different zone defense looks. Both teams should be content to play at a below-average pace and turn this into somewhat of a slog. That type of game always makes taking points with the underdog more valuable. Play: Utah State +5.5.

No. 3 seed Kentucky -10.5 vs. No. 14 seed Troy. The Wildcats have been a different team with former San Diego State/March Madness star Lamont Butler on the floor, and the combo guard is expected to return from injury for the tournament. Troy is athletic but also carless and difficult to trust. The Trojans are both one of the youngest teams in the field and one of the most turnover-prone. Play: Kentucky -10.5.

No. 11 seed Texas +3 vs. No. 11 seed Xavier. The Musketeers have a couple elite players in Zach Freemantle and Ryan Conwell but the Longhorns might have six or seven guys who are better than anyone else on the roster. Texas has underachieved on the season — to the point that many believe it didn’t deserve one of the final at-large bids — but has the talent level to compete with almost any team. The Longhorns’ upside alone should have kept this spread more depressed. Play: Texas +3.

No. 2 seed Tennessee -19 vs. No. 15 seed Wofford. Tennessee might not have many opportunities to cover this large of a number. Both the Volunteers and Terriers play at one of the slowest paces in the nation. Wofford always flings up a lot of 3-point attempts and rebounds well, traits that help lower midmajor teams stay within big point spreads. Lean: Wofford +19.

No. 8 seed Gonzaga -5.5 vs. No. 9 seed Georgia. The theme of this region is apparently buying the dips and playing against the line moves. Gonzaga initially got as high as a 7-point favorite, which was more appropriate territory. The buyback on Georgia is confusing as, statistically, Gonzaga might be the best No. 8 seed ever. The Zags are stacked with difference-makers and being unjustly punished for six losses that included three in overtime. Lean: Gonzaga -5.5.

No. 1 seed Houston -29.5 vs. No. 16 seed SIU-Edwardsville. The Cougars can cover this number with ease if they care to do so, but that seems to be a real question in this matchup. Houston coach Kelvin Sampson has praised SIUE head Brian Barone and detailed their history. He won’t be motivated to embarrass him. Houston could also be staring at a massive second-round showdown with Gonzaga all the while trying to shepherd the recovery of star forward J’Wan Roberts from a sprained ankle. Guess: SIU-Edwardsville +29.5.