NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the South Region

Johni Broome and his Auburn Tiger teammates swept away all competition with one of the best three-month starts to a college basketball season in recent memory.

Since the calendar flipped to March, however, things have gotten messy. Auburn is only 2-3 straight-up, 1-4 against the spread in the most vital month of the season.

The Tigers have looked more like the Broome-led side that No. 13 seed Yale stunned as 14-point underdogs in the opening round of the 2024 NCAA Tournament than the team that was wiping out everything in their path.  

The slide didn’t end up costing Auburn the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament as the selection committee still chose it over Duke but it has seen its equity diminish in future betting pools. 

Once as low as -135 (i.e. risking $135 to win $100) to reach the Final Four, Auburn reopened as high as +105 (i.e. risking $100 to win $105) to make it out of the South Region.

The Tigers reached as low as 2-to-1 to win the national championship and created a gap between themselves and the field about a month ago. Now they’re as high as 5-to-1 and behind No. 1 seed peers Duke and Florida at every sports book in likelihood to win the title.

They could poetically kill off the slump only about 100 miles from home if they reach the Sweet 16 in Atlanta, which could bring a game against No. 4 seed Texas A&M. The Aggies set off the Tigers’ troubles with an 83-72 home win as 4-point underdogs on March 4.  

They didn’t really sustain the momentum though.

Texas A&M was one-and-done in the SEC Tournament, losing to rival Texas 94-89 as 6-point favorites in double overtime.

Recent slip-ups are a trend in the East Region, as No. 2 seed Michigan State and No. 3 seed Iowa State were both one win-and-out in the Big Ten and Big 12, respectively, after suffering upset losses.

No. 5 seed Michigan appears to be the team that doesn’t fit, as it overcame odds as long as 13-to-1 to win the Big Ten Conference Tournament.

The Wolverines could also be seen a testament to how quickly these things can flip though. They had lost three straight going into the postseason and then rolled all the way to the championship.

If Auburn’s recent trajectory is just a blip, then the rest of the teams in the East should be overmatched. But if the Tigers have really declined, then this could be the region to send a surprise representative to the Final Four.

This is the first entry in a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament from a betting perspective. Read below for against the spread picks and a brief analysis on every first-round game in the East Region. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side. Check back after Tuesday’s First Four games for updated selections on the new matchups.  

No. 4 seed Texas A&M -7 vs. No. 13 seed Yale This won’t be a repeat of last year when Yale flummoxed Auburn. Texas A&M is too well-coached by Buzz Williams and too tenacious on the boards — with the nation's top offensive-rebounding rate — to go down to a team at this large of a negative talent discrepancy. Yale’s efficiency has tailed off late in the season and money has come in against it frequently. Don’t be surprised if that happens here and Texas A&M jumps to closer to a double-digit favorite. Play: Texas A&M -7.

No. 3 seed Iowa State -14.5 vs. No. 14 seed Lipscomb Rate Iowa State with its full-season metrics, and this point spread would only come out a point or 1.5 points higher. That’s a pretty small downgrade considering the Cyclones are confirmed to be playing without star guard/local product Keshon Gilbert, and point guard Tamin Lipsey also remains affected by a groin injury. Lipscomb has fallen flat against higher-level competition lately and plays too fast to maximize chances at an outright upset, but it should at least be able to keep the score close. Play: Lipscomb +14.5.  

No. 5 seed Michigan -2 vs. No. 12 seed UC San Diego Expect a well-executed war, one that the Tritons could easily win with their crisp, versatile offense. But if the game is muddied up at all, it will be to Michigan’s advantage. The Wolverines are a far better rebounding team — despite playing a much more challenging schedule — and their pair of 7-footers in Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf make for a tough matchup. This opened at a more appropriate line of Michigan -3.5, and the love for San Diego as a possible darling might have gone too far. Lean: Michigan -2.     

No. 11 seed North Carolina -4 vs. No. 11 seed San Diego State The Aztecs have gone 12-17 against the spread this year, and that record isn’t an anomaly. It’s telling. They’ve been overrated and have somewhat gotten a pass on reputation alone when there should be more concern for their dreadful offense. North Carolina was similarly mediocre for most of the season — though it was all offense, no defense in direct contrast to San Diego State — but have gotten its act together down the stretch. This spread could be higher if weighted more aggressively for recency. Lean: North Carolina -4.

No. 2 seed Michigan State -18 vs. No. 15 seed Bryant Michigan State’s NCAA Tournament prowess is somewhat of a myth considering it’s only been out of the opening weekend twice in the last 10 years. This year’s team looks like one of the Spartans’ better squads in the span but they’ve also benefitted from shooting luck all season — on both offense and defense — to inflate their resumé. They look like a fade overall, even in the likely scenario that they overpower Bryant. But it’s better to be early than too late to go against an overvalued team. Lean: Bryant +18.  

No. 16 Alabama State -4.5 vs. No. 16 seed Saint Francis (Pa.) The Red Wave clear with relative ease as the worst side to make the 68-team, but the majority of analytical power ratings (including Shot Quality, Kenpom and Bart Torvik) rate the Hornets as the second worst. If Alabama State can’t impose its preferred fast-paced style on St. Francis, it might be in trouble. That’s enough of a question that the Hornets should be bordering on a two-possession favorite. Lean: St. Francis (Pa.) +4.5.

No. 8 seed Louisville -2.5 vs. No. 9 seed Creighton Both teams are capable of lighting up the scoreboard, but Louisville is far easier to trust with getting stops on the other end of the court. Star point guard/former Wisconsin standout Chucky Hepburn won the ACC’s Defensive Player of the Year Award in addition to running the Cardinals’ highly efficient offense. Louisville was an easy bet at the sports books that foolishly opened the game as a pick’em, but the number has since moved into a more appropriate territory. Guess: Louisville -2.5.

No. 7 seed Marquette -4 vs. No. 10 seed New Mexico The point guard matchup between Marquette’s Kam Jones and New Mexico’s Donovan Dent might make this the most thrilling game to watch in the round of 64. There’s just not a lot of value on the point spread as it sits right in a perfect place. If starved for action, consider the over 153 points to cheer on both Jones and Dent getting in their elite playmaking rhythm. Guess: New Mexico +4.