NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the Sweet 16

A week ago, some doubt existed regarding Duke freshman star Cooper Flagg’s NCAA Tournament availability and health. Now, he’s the runaway favorite to win the event’s most prestigious individual award.

The opening weekend of the tournament is traditionally when sportsbooks hang the most proposition bets and index wagers, but one new pool is more widespread locally headed into the regional finals this weekend. Two shops — Boyd and BetMGM — have posted odds to win the Final Four’s Most Outstanding Player award.

After showing he could operate just fine on a previously sprained left ankle with 32 points, 16 rebounds and 11 assists across the first two games, Flagg sits atop the board at both books. He’s +280 (i.e. risking $100 to win $280) at Boyd and 3-to-1 at BetMGM.

It’s not a bad bet for those who believe Duke cuts down the nets in San Antonio in the national championship game April 7.

The Blue Devils are back as the consensus favorites to do so, after being passed by Florida coming into the tournament, at as low as 2-to-1. Flagg’s odds should correlate more directly with Duke’s odds.

The Blue Devils have a strong roster elsewhere, but Flagg is their most important player by volumes. They won’t win the title if he’s not at his best.

It’s a similar story with No. 1 seed Auburn and superstar Johni Broome, who was a co-favorite with Flagg to win the award at some national, non-Las Vegas books before the round of 64.

Broome is now +750 at BetMGM to Auburn’s +475, which is way too large of a discrepancy.

The best bet, however, might be on No. 1 seed Houston’s leading scorer, L.J. Cryer, who’s 14-to-1 to win Most Outstanding Player at BetMGM.

The Cougars have a couple players just as important as Cryer, local product point guard Milos Uzan and big man J’Wan Roberts, but the senior veteran is whom they go to in the biggest moments.

The only No. 1 seed with multiple true contenders looks like Florida. Walter Clayton Jr. is its best player — and priced at 6-to-1 at MGM — but fellow guards Alijah Martin and Will Richard — both 30-to-1 — are just as likely to stand out in a one- or two-game sample.

There are a lot of intriguing candidates but Cryer at 14-to-1 is the only one who should merit an immediate bet before the Sweet 16 tips off. Let’s revisit the market next week before the Final Four to build up the Most Outstanding Player portfolio or, worst-case scenario, start again from scratch if Houston doesn’t make it out of the Midwest Region in Indianapolis.

Read below for picks and analysis on every Sweet 16 game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side and picks are listed in rough order of confidence. The record picking every game through the round of 64 stands at 27-24-1 (13-8 on plays, 8-7 on leans and 6-9-1 on guesses).

No. 3 seed Texas Tech -5.5 vs. No. 10 seed Arkansas. The Red Raiders have shot well below expectation in the first two games of the tournament — going a ghastly 15-for-60 from 3-point range — and still banked a pair of double-digit wins. The Razorbacks have played closer to their ceiling so far, but that’s no guarantee to continue. Arkansas could be elevated by the return of injured forward Adou Thiero but Texas Tech could also outweigh that boost if it gets 3-and-D ace Chance McMillan back. Play: Texas Tech -5.5.

No. 2 seed Alabama -5.5 vs. No. 6 seed BYU. The Cougars are the rare team that shouldn’t be thrown off by the Crimson Tide’s fast-paced, 3-point bombing style considering they employ a mirroring philosophy. And they aren’t going to be overwhelmed talent-wise either like Alabama’s first two NCAA Tournament opponents, St. Mary’s and Robert Morris. While Alabama probably won't have a single player taken in the first round of the upcoming NBA Draft, BYU has a likely lottery pick in the do-everything star Egor Demin. Play: BYU +5.5.

No. 1 seed Florida -7 vs. No. 4 seed Maryland. The Terrapins’ well-marketed starting “Crab Five” matches up just fine with the Gators’ more heralded lineup. Depth is where Maryland could run into problems, but that’s less of a concern on regular four-day rest instead of an immediate two-day turnaround like in the round of 32 or Elite Eight. The Terrapins have also a slight edge in already being on Pacific Standard Time and traveling directly from their first weekend site in Seattle to San Francisco instead of the Gators’ cross-country jaunt. Lean: Maryland +7.

No. 2 seed Michigan State -3.5 vs. No. 6 Ole Miss. Michigan State’s 3-point shooting efficiency is the worst left in the tournament by a massive 1.5% and 323^rd in the nation. The Spartans are too flawed offensively to be considered serious contenders, and it should catch up to them at some point. The Rebels look like a strong candidate to knock them off given their tip-top current form. Lean: Ole Miss +3.5

No. 1 seed Auburn -9 vs. No. 9 seed Michigan. The Tigers are so much more well-rounded and reliable that it’s hard to imagine them losing this game, but the Wolverines are just pestering and physical enough to hang around. I made the point spread Auburn -8.5, right where it sits at most shops. A couple books drifting to Auburn -9 is the only factor informing this pick. Guess: Michigan +9.

No. 2 seed Tennessee -4 vs. No. 3 seed Kentucky. Contrary to the popular cliché of it being, “tough to beat a team three times,” the previous victors have historically performed well in the trilogy match. But Kentucky was healthier for one of its two victories over Tennessee in the regular season and rode a shooting heater in the other. The Volunteers one-two punch of Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier should be able to crack a suspect Wildcat backcourt defense. Guess: Tennessee -4.

No. 1 seed Houston -8 vs. No. 4 seed Purdue. Houston led Gonzaga throughout the teams’ round of 32 matchup but struggled to close it out and actually let the Bulldogs cover +5.5 in an 81-76 victory. A repeat could easily occur here. The Boilermakers are explosive and relentless on offense, leaving a major backdoor possibility. A good general rule of thumb in recent years is to lay big numbers with Houston against low-level teams but stray when it comes to squads with comparable talent. Guess: Purdue +8.

No. 1 seed Duke -9 vs. No. 4 seed Arizona. The Blue Devils had no trouble dismantling the Wildcats in Tucson, Ariz., during nonconference play, rolling to a 69-55 victory as 2-point underdogs. They’ve gotten significantly better since then, to the point where they statistically profile as one of the best college basketball teams ever. Arizona has also improved, to be fair, but Duke’s tenacious on-ball defense remains a glaring negative matchup. Guess: Duke -9.