NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of the West Region

If you went back in time to the start of the college basketball season and showed any fan the eventual South Region, East Region and Midwest Region brackets, they’d probably nod and think it made sense.

Minor surprises are spread throughout each of them, but nothing that would cause any real shock with how the teams were perceived coming into the year.  

The West Region is where that breaks.

Go back in time and flash this 16-team collection to a college basketball diehard, and there’s no way they could be convinced it’s real.

The West is a glorious jumble of overachievers and underachievers.

Florida is one of the more unforeseen No. 1 seeds in recent memory considering it hasn’t hasn’t been out of the first weekend of the tournament since 2017. Third-year coach Todd Golden has never won a tournament game.

The Gators were picked sixth in the preseason SEC basketball poll, but that’s a lot more respectable than a couple of the other contenders chasing after them. No. 4 seed Maryland was slotted 10^th in the Big Ten and considered an NCAA Tournament bubble team at best.

No. 6 seed Missouri was 13^th in the SEC poll, and that might have felt generous coming off an 0-18 conference season.

There was optimism around No. 2 seed St. John’s and No. 3 seed Texas Tech but few thought they would turn out this well.

The Red Wave trucked the rest of the Big East both in the regular season and conference tournament. The Red Raiders finished second in the Big 12 and were the only team to hand Midwest No. 1 seed Houston a conference loss.

The climb of the pair of red teams feels directly correlated to the decline of their blueblood conference-mates also stationed in the West Region.

No. 7 seed Kansas and No. 8 seed Connecticut came into the year regarded as the teams to beat in the Big 12 and Big East, respectively. The Jayhawks and Huskies were also two of the top three favorites — along with East Region No. 1 seed Duke — to win the national championship.

Now neither of the two sides are even considered remotely in the running. Both Kansas and UConn can be found at 100-to-1 to win the tournament in different sports books around town.

The pair have combined to win the last three national championships so expectations were bound to be high, but they haven’t come close to living up to them for different reasons.

UConn, looking to become the first three-peat champions since John Wooden’s UCLA teams more than 50 years ago, finally suffered some attrition after losing a handful of NBA-caliber players over the last two years. The Huskies have also been offset by injuries all season.

Kansas, the preseason No. 1 team in most national rankings, has stayed mostly healthy but struggled with chemistry issues. Coach Bill Self at different times after losses this year regarded his team as “embarrassing” and “beyond pitiful.”

It’s the first time in his 22-year tenure at Kansas that it’s not a top four seed.

The only saving grace for Self and UConn counterpart Dan Hurley might be a trend that teams’ preseason ratings tend to be more predictive in the NCAA Tournament than most realize.  

The theory is that skill wins out in the long run. Teams like UConn and Kansas might not have played up to their talent level yet, but there’s still time to remedy their woes.

Shortcomings could still exist for the likes of Florida, St. John’s and Maryland meanwhile no matter how well they’ve managed to mask them.

Florida is the most popular to pick to both reach the Final Four and win the title behind Duke, and it’s worth remembering just how far-fetched that would have sounded five months ago.

The West bracket as a whole would have made a college basketball fan’s head explode.

This is the final entry in a four-part series previewing the NCAA Tournament from a betting perspective. Read below for against the spread picks and a brief analysis on every first-round game in the West Region. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side. Check back this weekend for picks on the round of 32 games.

No. 3 seed Texas Tech -14.5 vs. No. 14 seed UNC Wilmington. The Red Raiders are the sleeping giants of this year’s tournament with more than enough talent and well-roundedness to beat any opponent. Buy stock on them in any way possible, starting in the round of 64. The Seahawks are experienced and better than the average No. 14 seed, but they have little chance to match up with a Red Raiders’ side reported to be at full strength headed into the tournament. Play: Texas Tech -14.5.

No. 5 seed Memphis +1.5 vs. No. 12 seed Colorado State. The Rams have been a top 10 team in the nation over the last month with 10 straight wins and covers. They’re playing so well that they should be favored over the Tigers regardless of the circumstances. The market therefore hasn’t adjusted enough to the likely absence of star Memphis point guard Tyrese Hunter and the fact that Colorado State is playing 1,000 miles closer to home in Seattle with an extra day of rest. Play: Colorado State -1.5.

No. 6 seed Missouri -6 vs. No. 11 seed Drake. Drake’s success rests in their disciplined approach and ability to avoid mistakes, but Missouri isn’t a disjointed mess itself. Drake would have ideally matched up with a team that doesn’t have as many versatile veteran scorers like Mark Mitchell, Tamar Bates and Caleb Grill. The Tigers’ athleticism should present a major problem. Play: Missouri -6.

No. 4 seed Maryland -10.5 vs. No. 13 seed Grand Canyon. The Antelopes went through more ups and downs in the Western Athletic Conference than expected this year but, by the end of the season, they looked more like the finely-tuned machine that was promised. They won nine of their last 10 games — with the only loss coming by a point in overtime without star Tyon Gant-Foster — and rolled through the WAC Tournament at the Orleans. It takes a leap of faith but if Grand Canyon can retain their recent form, it’s a threat against almost any team.  Lean: Grand Canyon +10.5.

No. 8 seed Connecticut -5 vs. No. 9 seed Oklahoma. The now-healthy Huskies should win this game but the price has become too prohibitive. It’s nothing new as the betting market has overvalued the back-to-back champions all year, hence their mediocre 15-18 against the spread record. Oklahoma doesn’t have the personnel to match up, but that’s true for most games in the SEC and didn’t stop the Sooners from covering in seven straight down the stretch of the season. Guess: Oklahoma +5.5.

No. 2 seed Saint John’s vs. No. 15 seed Omaha. The Red Storm dominated the Big East through heart, hustle and defense alone. That should be commended but their No. 65 national rating in offensive efficiency per kenpom.com is a real cause for concern. St. John’s style isn’t suited for blowouts, and it lacks an elite-level scorer to come through in crucial possessions. This might be too early, but St. John’s is a fade in the tournament as a whole.  Guess: Omaha +19.  

No. 7 seed Kansas -4.5 vs. No. 10 seed Arkansas. Star freshman Boogie Fland is set to return for Arkansas but that introduces a lot of variance. It seems equally likely that he could spark the Razorbacks or disrupt the late-season rhythm they developed to secure a tournament berth. Kansas hasn’t been able to figure out its offense all year with odd fits everywhere, but has the defensive chops — especially at the rim — to stop Arkansas’ dribble-drive attack.  Guess: Kansas -4.5.

No. 1 seed Florida -28.5 vs. No. 16 seed Norfolk State. The Gators’ defensive pressure and rebounding prowess is a nightmare matchup for the Spartans. Norfolk State’s only prayer at hanging with Florida would be bombing 3-pointers and hoping for the best, but it attempts shots beyond the arc on only 27.7% of field goal attempts — the lowest rate in the tournament.  Guess: Florida -28.5.