NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and previews of Sunday's games

Maryland guard Selton Miguel (9) and center Derik Queen, back, celebrate on the bench during the second half against Grand Canyon in the first round of the NCAA college basketball tournament, Friday, March 21, 2025 in Seattle. Photo by ASSOCIATED PRESS

Sports books and watch parties around town are always a bit thinned out by Sunday’s round of 32 action.

That trend might be exacerbated this year. Not only do tourists need to catch the usual flights home or partake in some rest and recovery, but they also might not feel any major motivation to catch today’s group of teams in action.

They collectively didn’t give them much suspense when playing Friday as part of the round of 64.

It was one of the dullest opening-round tournament days ever.

Favorites flew to a 13-3 straight-up, 10-6 against the spread record when this set of teams played Friday, and none of the upsets were all that surprising. No. 9 seed Baylor beat No. 8 seed Mississippi State as a 1.5-point underdog and No. 6 seed Ole Miss outlasted No. 11 seed North Carolina as a 2-point underdog.

The most notable upset Friday was No. 10 seed New Mexico eliminating No. 7 seed Marquette as a 4.5-point underdog.

The average margin of victory in the games the favorites won outright was 20.6 points.

Maybe these teams can play some closer games today and make up for Friday’s snoozer. That’s what I’m counting on by picking the underdog in six of eight contests.

Read below for picks and analysis on every game. Lines are the best available on the chosen side and picks are listed in rough order of confidence. The record picking every game through the first three days stands at 23-21 (10-7 on plays, 7-6 on leans and 6-8 on guesses).

No. 4 seed Maryland -7.5 vs. No. 12 seed Colorado State. This spread feels a bit reactionary to Maryland playing its best game of the year in blowing out Grand Canyon 81-49 as 10-point favorites in the round of 64. Colorado State has been eviscerating teams around the same quality as Grand Canyon for more than a month now on a 11-game straight-up and against the spread win streak. Money poured in against the Terrapins close to tip time against the Antelopes, and the same may happen here with the Rams. Play: Colorado State +7.5.

No. 1 seed Florida -9.5 vs. No. 8 seed Connecticut. Talent tends to be almost as predictive as full-season performance in the tournament. By a strictly talent perspective, tis game is much more evenly-matched. The Huskies are finally healthy and it’s still strange to see the back-to-back champions getting this many points in a matchup they would have been favored in at the start of the season. Play: Connecticut +9.5.

No. 2 seed Alabama -5.5  vs. No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s. The Gaels appear to be right in position for their seemingly annual round of 32 exit at the hands of a team that can overwhelm them with athleticism. Vanderbilt nearly ran away with a 12-point lead in an eventual 59-56 loss to St. Mary’s as 4.5-point underdogs on Friday but couldn’t maintain its high clip of offensive efficiency. Alabama is more relentless.  Play: Alabama -5.5.

No. 3 seed Iowa State -4.5 vs. No. 6 seed Ole Miss. I might have fallen into the trap of overvaluing the absence of Cyclones point guard Keshon Gilbert. A lot of the advanced statistics indicate Iowa State doesn’t drop off much without Gilbert — injuries to Tamin Lipsey and Curtis Jones were more impactful throughout the season — and it certainly didn’t in blasting Lipscomb 82-55 as 14.5-point favorites. The Cyclones were a Final Four contender with Gilbert, and they might be one without him too.  Play: Iowa State -4.5.

No. 1 seed Duke -12 vs. No. 9 seed Baylor. No one should be in a rush to bet against an outlier Duke team that’s now covered in seven straight games when Cooper Flagg is healthy, but the market continues to discount Baylor. Unlike the Blue Devils, the Bears were a fade for most of the year but they’ve made significant strides down the stretch. This shouldn’t be like many of Duke’s ACC matchups where they could coast to victory.  Lean: Baylor +12.

No. 3 seed Kentucky +1.5 vs. No. 6 seed Illinois. Illinois deserves a boost for now having its full complement of players but Kentucky is trending up in availability too with point guard Lamont Butler battling through pain to participate in the tournament. He may not have scored against Troy but provided structural help. The Illini might have the slightly better roster but it’s also much younger and less trustworthy. The line should probably be flipped to Kentucky as an ever-so-slight favorite. Lean: Kentucky +1.5.

No. 2 seed Michigan State -7 vs. No. 10 seed New Mexico. The Spartans have banked a few blowouts recently — including a second-half onslaught that led to a 87-62 win over Bryant as 17-point favorites on Friday – but they’re not stylistically set up to win by margin regularly. New Mexico’s offense is just as explosive as Michigan State’s and more reliable from a shooting perspective. Michigan State should win but it will likely come in a low-scoring affair without much opportunity to pull away. Guess: New Mexico +7.

No. 4 seed Arizona -4 vs. No. 5 seed Oregon. I make this number exactly Arizona -4, so there’s nothing close to value on either side. But, as part of a new self-improvement plan, I’m vowing to no longer donate money betting against Dana Altman-coached teams in the tournament. The Ducks overachieve every berth under Altman, directly contrasting with a Wildcats’ side that has underachieved in the postseason with coach Tommy Loyd to this point.  Guess: Oregon +4.