Nepal turmoil adds to India's woes in South Asia

Nepal has become the third country in India's immediate neighbourhood to see a violent uprising topple its government in recent years.

Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli resigned after more than 20 people died in clashes with police during anti-government demonstrations triggered by a social media ban.

A nationwide curfew is in place and the army is attempting to bring the situation under control after protesters stormed parliament and set fire to the homes of several politicians.

For many, the scenes in Kathmandu were reminiscent of the turmoil that gripped Bangladesh last year, and Sri Lanka in 2022.

Though Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are also India's close neighbours in South Asia, Delhi's relationship with Kathmandu is special because of historic people-to-people, economic and strategic ties.

Nepal shares a largely open border of more than 1,750km (466 miles) with five Indian states; Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Bihar and West Bengal.

Delhi is keenly watching developments across the border, with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi swiftly reacting to the unfolding events.

"The violence in Nepal is heart-rending. I am anguished that many young people have lost their lives," Modi wrote in a post on X on Tuesday.

Stressing that "stability, peace and prosperity of Nepal are of utmost importance", he appealed to "all my brothers and sisters in Nepal to support peace".

Modi also chaired an emergency security meeting with his cabinet colleagues on Tuesday to discuss the situation.

Much like it was caught off-guard by the uprising in Sri Lanka in 2022 that forced the then president Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee the country, analysts say India was taken by surprise by the developments in Nepal, with Oli resigning just a week ahead of a planned visit to Delhi.

Any instability in the country is a cause of concern for India because of Nepal's strategic location.

"The Western Theatre Command of China sits right across Nepal. The route to the Indo-Gangetic plains comes straight through Nepal," Maj Gen (Retd) Ashok Mehta, an expert on Nepal, told the BBC.

The unrest also has implications for the large Nepalese diaspora in India. An estimated 3.5 million Nepalis work or live in India, but experts say the actual number could be much higher.

Nepal is predominantly a Hindu-majority country and communities across the border have close family ties.

People travel between the two countries without a visa or passport. Nepalis can also work in India without restriction under a 1950 treaty - the only country along with Bhutan in the region to have this arrangement.

In addition to this, 32,000 famed Gurkha soldiers of Nepal serve in the Indian army under a decades-old special agreement.

"Since the border is open, the communities enjoy a lived experience. Families on both sides interact with each other on a daily basis," says Professor Sangeeta Thapliyal of Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU).

Nepal is also home to several important Hindu holy sites, including the Muktinath temple in the trans-Himalayan mountains. Thousands of Hindu pilgrims from India visit the temple every year.

Meanwhile, Kathmandu depends heavily on Indian exports, especially oil and food, with India-Nepal annual bilateral trade estimated at $8.5bn (£6.28bn).

While a fragile sense of calm returned to Kathmandu on Wednesday, experts say India will have to walk a diplomatic tightrope, as there's widespread anger among Nepalese protesters at all three major political parties that have ruled the country.

And India has maintained close contacts with all of them - the Communist Party of Nepal (CPN – UML) headed by Oli, the Nepali Congress of Sher Bahadur Deuba, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal, who is known as Prachanda.

Given the Himalayan nation's strategic location, both India and China are vying for influence in the country, leading to accusations the two Asian giants are meddling in the internal affairs of Nepal.

It's not clear what kind of administration will replace Oli, one that is also acceptable to the protesters.

Since the shape of the new government or leadership is uncertain, "India will be cautious", Prof Thapliyal says. "They don't want another Bangladesh type of situation in Nepal."

Delhi had cordial relations with ousted Bangladeshi prime minister Sheikh Hasina, but has ties with the current interim administration are strained over India's decision to give Hasina shelter in the country.

Nepal and India, too, have had their differences - and those will now have to be managed with extra care.

In 2019, Nepal was furious after India published a map that included areas claimed by Kathmandu, in a western region close to the border with China, as part of its territory.

The diplomatic wrangle escalated after Nepal published its own map which included those disputed areas.

Recently, India and China have agreed to resume trade at one of the border areas claimed by Nepal. During his visit to China last month, Oli raised the issue with the Chinese leadership, objecting to the Lipulekh Pass being used as a trade route.

Experts say India will have to reach out to the new administration to iron out any differences, and also engage with young Nepalis who are angry with their political establishment.

"There are fewer opportunities within Nepal for the youth. India should actively consider increasing fellowships for Nepalese students and provide more job opportunities," says Prof Thapliyal.

With the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC), a regional grouping, remaining dormant, it's going to be a challenge for India to deal with the political changes and instability in its neighbourhood.

The crisis in Nepal has blown up as relations with Pakistan are at a low point, ties with Bangladesh remain strained and Myanmar is engulfed in civil war.

"India has taken its eyes off the neighbourhood due to its great power ambitions. But for that to aim to be achieved you have to have a secure and stable neighbourhood," Mr Mehta argues.

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