Pacific Classic Stakes: Predictions, picks for Breeders’ Cup qualifier

Pacific Classic Stakes: Predictions, picks for Breeders’ Cup qualifier By Adam Burke, VSiN August 21, 2026 - 4:29 pm Two Breeders’ Cup qualifying races are scheduled at Del Mar this weekend, with the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes serving as the more significant of the pair. The winner of the 1 1/4‑mile contest earns an automatic berth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which will be run at Keeneland on Halloween weekend. The race is listed as Race 10 on the Saturday card, with a post time set for 6:30 p.m. PT. **Forged Steel (5‑1; Gonzalez/Joseph)** – As the first of two entries from trainer Saffie Joseph, Forged Steel is expected to take an early position. The question is whether it can replicate its wire‑to‑wire victory in the Hollywood Gold Cup Stakes, where it won by 9 ½ lengths. That race featured a weaker field than the one it will face here. Handicappers remain cautious after the horse missed the board in the Suburban Stakes following its Hollywood Gold Cup win; that effort came after a cross‑country trip to Saratoga for the July 4 holiday. Forged Steel has not raced since being scratched from the Whitney Stakes. **Finger (8‑1; Tosaki/Tanaka)** – Should Forged Steel fail to grab the lead, Finger could seize the front. The three‑year‑old son of Gun Runner has already captured two legs of the Japan Dirt Triple Crown, prevailing in the Haneda Hai and the Tokyo Derby, the latter run at the same distance he will attempt here. His ultimate target is the Japan Dirt Classic on Oct. 7, but a win in the Pacific Classic would automatically place him in the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Oct. 31—a noteworthy turnaround. Finger must first prove himself in his U.S. debut. While he has encountered larger fields in Japan, the caliber of this race is markedly higher. **Original Sin (15‑1; Hernandez/Walsh)** – Juan Hernandez rides this Curlin colt, which ships in from Saratoga for its first California start. The horse captured the Grade 3 Blame Stakes at Churchill Downs before finishing ninth in the Suburban Stakes when stretched to 1 ¼ miles for the first time. Prior to that, it had won twice at 1 3/16 miles, prompting Walsh and connections to test it at a longer distance. Although the performance in the Suburban was lackluster, Original Sin now benefits from one of California’s top riders and a horse with career earnings approaching $114 million. Hernandez entered the week with a 27 percent summer win rate, and the Calumet Farm‑owned four‑year‑old is likely to see its odds shorten as post time nears. **Knightsbridge (5‑2; Alvarado/Mott)** – The five‑year‑old Nyquist offspring appeared to relish a second turn after a strong showing in the Monmouth Cup just weeks earlier. Primarily a miler, Knightsbridge won that race by more than 10 lengths, though the competition was far below the level it will face today. It also placed second between Nysos and Journalism in the Met Mile. With those two rivals absent, a repeat of that effort is unlikely, but the logic still favors Knightsbridge as the morning line favorite. Flavien Prat rode the horse for Bill Mott in the Monmouth Cup; for this outing, Junior Alvarado—who had the mount in the Met Mile—will take the reins. **Pacific Classic Stakes picks** Although Knightsbridge carries the favorite tag, it is being asked to run a quarter mile farther than its career‑best distance. Its maternal grandsire, Bernardini, and sire, Nyquist, both showed no aversion to longer trips, suggesting the horse could handle the extra ground. Knightsbridge looks like a solid component in exactas and trifectas and may even contend for the win. Nevertheless, I am leaning toward Finger, the Japanese import capable of rating early, conserving energy and launching a strong late bid. I also appreciate the current form of Original Sin and the confidence Hernandez brings to the saddle. **Prediction** 3 Finger 11 Knightsbridge 6 Original Sin 2 Forged Steel