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Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) heads to the end zone for a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears at Allegiant Stadium Sunday, Sept. 28, 2025. Photo by: Steve Marcus
By Case Keefer (contact)
Sunday, Oct. 5, 2025 | 2 a.m.
• Who: Raiders (1-3) at Colts (3-1)
• When: 10 a.m.
• Where: Lucas Oil Stadium
• TV: FOX 5
• Radio: Raider Nation Radio 920 AM, KOMP 92.3 FM
• Betting line: Colts -7, over/under 47.5
Las Vegas and Indianapolis entered the season in similar situations. Both had over/under win totals of 7.5 victories in sportsbooks, with the perception being that the pair of teams would likely finish near the bottom in the AFC standings. But both carried some sleeper potential.
They’ve gone in different directions since then. Indianapolis has been arguably the biggest positive surprise in the NFL so far, winning its first three games before losing 27-20 at the Los Angeles Rams last week in a contest that was closer than the score indicated. Las Vegas showed some promise in upsetting the New England Patriots 20-13 in Week 1, but it’s been all downhill from there. The Raiders lost a third straight game in Week 4 with an early turnover binge that turned into a late meltdown in a 25-24 defeat hosting the Chicago Bears.
They’ll now look to get back on track by putting a dent in a growing Colts’ optimism that now has the franchise as the clear favorite to win the AFC South.
Favorable matchup: Raiders’ rush defense vs. Colts’ running back Jonathan Taylor
No one is really a favorable matchup right now for the Colts’ sixth-year running back who’s leading the NFL with 414 rushing yards. The Raiders should provide more resistance for the 2021 NFL rushing-yards champion than the Colts’ first four opponents, though. Rush defense has been a bright spot for Las Vegas, which sits tied for 10th in the league in giving up four yards per carry. None of the first four teams Indianapolis faced ranked in the top half of the league. The Raiders gambled by building an older-than-usual linebacking corps in the offseason but, so far, it’s paid off — at least against the run. Veterans Elandon Roberts and Jamal Adams, a converted safety, have been particularly effective in stuffing opposing running backs. Free agent add Jeremy Chinn, meanwhile, has been the third-best safety in the league in defending the run per Pro Football Focus’ grading metrics. The Raiders like to bring Chinn down into the box on running downs, and there should be plenty with the Colts sitting fourth in the league in staying on the ground for 49.19% of snaps.
Problematic matchup: Raiders’ injury situation vs. Colts’ injury situation
One of the more concerning aspects of the Raiders’ slow start is that they’ve struggled despite having fewer injuries than each of their first four opponents. That’s still technically the case against the Colts, but the discrepancy is growing slimmer, and the Raiders may arguably now have the more impactful absences. Collateral damage in the loss to the Bears proved costly as the team’s top offensive lineman, left tackle Kolton Miller, and coverage defender, cornerback Eric Stokes, both went down with injuries. Miller has since been added to injured reserve with a high ankle sprain and hairline fracture. Stokes is expected to attempt to play through a knee sprain, but he’s been limited in practice and his agility could be hampered. Las Vegas knows about that all too well, as star tight end Brock Bowers found himself in the same situation after Week 1. He’s stayed on the field but hasn’t been himself, with only 19 catches for 122 yards in the three combined games since. Fellow tight end Michael Mayer hopes to return after missing last week’s game with a concussion. Las Vegas comes into Week 5 with some clear weaknesses because of all the medical setbacks, and Indianapolis will surely look to exploit them.
“(We showed) what we are when we play at home, and the effort and mentality and the willingness to hang with it no matter what happened. We demonstrated the mark of a team that I recognize, that I’m trying to build.” -Carroll on the positives he took out of watching the film of the Raiders’ loss to the Bears
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“I don’t feel better at all, honestly. There’s always things that are correctable, but you can’t get those things back. That’s just how life goes. Unfortunately, that’s what happened in that game but I’m still confident in my guys, still confident in myself, still confident in the trajectory of the season and where this team can go.” -Smith on his divergent emotions to Carroll's after reviewing the Bears’ game.
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“Sometimes you’ve just got to prove that something can work. That’s all that is.” -Running back Ashton Jeanty on the coaches allowing him to go back to his famed “Michael Myers” stance ahead of rushing for 138 yards on 21 attempts against the Bears
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“It’s a definitely a big role to fill but I’ve put myself in this situation. Pressure is a privilege. I look at it as an opportunity to step up.” -Swing tackle Stone Forsytheon replacing Miller while he’s injured
Gamebreaker: Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers
Raiders quarterback Geno Smith now leads the NFL with seven interceptions after throwing three against the Bears. The trio of picks all had one commonality: The passes were all intended for Meyers, the Raiders’ No. 1 receiver. Perhaps some stubbornness about getting Meyers the ball would work out better against the Colts. Indianapolis’ worst coverage area in pass defense this year has been the middle of the field, where Meyers does his best work. Meyers has primarily lined up as the slot receiver in new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s scheme, which should add to his matchup value against the Colts. Indianapolis’ most notable injury is to Pro Bowl slot cornerback Kenny Moore, who missed his team’s last game and two practices last week. Meyers might find it easier to shake the Colts’ coverage options than he did the Bears’ defensive backs. Despite the setback against the Bears, Meyers is still off to a decent start to the season and sat 24th in the NFL with 258 receiving yards going into Week 5.
Big Number: 11.8%
That’s the sizable drop in Colts quarterback Daniel Jones’ pressure-to-sack rate this season from his career average. The veteran former Giants passer has only been sacked four times, at the league’s third-lowest rate on only 8% of pressures. Jones, who tore his ACL the last time he faced the Raiders in then interim coach Antonio Pierce’s debut in 2023, is finding opening receivers and getting the ball out quicker this season. The tutelage of current Colts coach and former UNLV quarterback Shane Steichen appears to be paying off in a major way. One of the knocks on Jones for most of his early career was that he crumbled under pressure. Indianapolis’ offensive line is protecting him well — sitting second in the league in pass blocking per the DVOA ratings — but a lot of the credit goes to him directly for the calm he’s shown. The likes of Maxx Crosby, Malcolm Koonce, Tyree Wilson and Jonah Laulu need to try to crack that poise for the Raiders and see if they can get Jones to fall back into old habits. Crosby has done his part with 16 pressures on the year but needs more consistent help. The Raiders’ pass rush ranks only 24th in the league overall by PFF.
Best Bet (2-2): Geno Smith over 20.5 completions
Smith has been a mess and fallen under this total in two straight games, but Carroll and Kelly will likely prioritize getting him going in Indianapolis. Short throws near the line of scrimmage should be readily available against the Colts to get the veteran into a rhythm that’s eluded him since the Week 1 win. The home team figures to put extra attention on Jeanty after his breakout performance against the Bears. Chicago is also the worst team in the NFL against the run while Indianapolis is more around league average. The Colts wouldn’t be unwise to dare to Smith to beat them with how mistake-prone he’s looked in a Raiders’ uniform. But he’s capable of doing it, or at least of piling up a lot of completions to help get the Raiders down the field.
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