Second half of summer to bring chances for rain but heatwave threat persists

ByBen Rich

Lead Weather Presenter

The UK's upwind whitethorn crook a small much changeable during the 2nd fractional of summertime with spells of rainfall featuring successful immoderate long-range forecasts.

There is besides a precocious accidental that temperatures volition stay mostly supra mean during precocious July and August and further heatwaves cannot beryllium ruled out.

The play truthful acold has been notable for its heat, with a fig of records breached - including immoderate which day backmost to the notorious summertime of 1976.

A deficiency of rainfall has besides been a large portion of summertime with immoderate places successful confederate England seeing nary measurable rainfall for much than 4 weeks.

Hosepipe bans are successful unit for millions of households and adust vegetation has provided substance for wildfires to pain successful a fig of areas.

Current trends suggest a accidental of much changeable upwind during the 2nd fractional of summer.

However, the signals from machine upwind models are alternatively mixed meaning determination is simply a batch of uncertainty.

The latest sub-seasonal forecast from DTN - the BBC's upwind information supplier - suggests that areas of debased unit volition diagnostic much prominently implicit the adjacent mates of weeks, particularly for Scotland and Northern Ireland.

This would mean an summation successful bedewed weather.

However the Azores high, a semi-permanent ample country of precocious unit implicit the North Atlantic which tin artifact upwind fronts from reaching the UK, is apt to beryllium adjacent by. This volition support things drier, though not needfully wholly so.

Temperatures are astir apt to stay supra the seasonal norm, particularly successful England and Wales wherever further blistery spells oregon heatwaves are imaginable into aboriginal August.

The latest Met Office agelong scope forecast hints astatine akin conditions, suggesting that "the power of precocious unit whitethorn wane somewhat" during the last portion of July.

This would mean an summation successful ablution and thunderstorm activity, initially successful the northbound of the UK but with rainfall yet spreading southwards astatine times.

The Met Office forecast besides suggests a changeable commencement to August, but with above-average temperatures and the accidental of further blistery spells.

Long-range forecasting is fraught with uncertainty.

The behaviour of our chaotic ambiance mostly becomes harder to foretell the further into the aboriginal you gaze.

Forecasters are looking for wide trends alternatively than day-by-day item and astatine the infinitesimal those trends look alternatively unclear.

Whatever your plans for the remainder of the summer, you tin ever support up to day with the latest forecasts connected the BBC Weather app.

The summertime of 2026 has already been extraordinary.

A late-spring heatwave that acceptable a caller May somesthesia grounds was followed by different heatwave successful June, and a 3rd successful July which has lasted for 2 weeks successful places.

By 15 July, the UK had already recorded much days supra 30C than successful the full of 1976 - a twelvemonth that is remembered by galore for its iconic and long-lasting heatwave.

This twelvemonth is is besides the archetypal connected grounds erstwhile 35C oregon supra has been reached successful 3 abstracted calendar months - May, June and July.

A fig of factors person combined to thrust the blistery upwind that we person seen truthful acold this summer.

Persistent areas of precocious unit person allowed vigor to physique underneath them, and the deficiency of rainfall has allowed the crushed to adust out.

Dry onshore encourages higher temperatures due to the fact that little of the Sun's vigor is utilized successful evaporating moisture, leaving much disposable to vigor the crushed and the air.

Sea-surface temperatures astir the UK person been overmuch higher than normal, with a alleged marine heatwave continuing astir our shores.

This reduces the accustomed cooling effect of the oversea and tin assistance to clasp temperatures up implicit land, particularly astatine night.

One different cardinal origin is clime change.

Scientists are assured that human-induced warming is making heatwaves much predominant and much intense.

In its latest State of the UK Climate report, the Met Office says upwind that utilized to beryllium classed arsenic utmost is becoming the "new normal".

It says the clime we utilized to cognize successful the 20th period is present a happening of the past, with the UK warming astir 0.25C per decennary since the 1980s.