Starmer resets after Rayner row, but Labour turmoil is a gift for Reform

Welcome to the weird world UK politics 2025.

The TV presenter Jeremy Kyle announces to a huge crowd of Nigel Farage supporters at Reform UK's party conference that David Lammy is the new number two in government and they boo, panto-style.

And there's a YouTube video of the (now former) deputy prime minister dancing in a tracksuit and chunky gold chain waving wads of cash that's been watched more than 1.5m times.

These might both sound like parodies, but only the video of Angela Rayner rapping "How Many Homes Can Rayner Buy" was a joke.

And what was planned as No 10's "get back in charge week" has been blown up by a row you couldn't make up – the housing secretary in trouble for not paying tens of thousands of pounds of tax on her expensive new house.

Her exit pushed the button on a chunky shakeup of Sir Keir Starmer's team.

The start of this political season has been wild.

In the end, Rayner's decision to go was clear cut.

The official report into her behaviour said she'd tried to do the right thing, but not tried hard enough. So the rules had been broken.

Her camp reckoned she had no option. No 10 agreed.

There is frustration that the manner of her exit from government gave her critics what they wanted. But she knew she had no choice, and was devastated by her own mistake.

It's acutely and specifically painful for Labour because Rayner had personally styled herself as something of a sleaze-buster.

It was she who often led the charge against the succession of Conservatives who got into trouble over their own complicated financial arrangements, hurling accusations of arrogance and greed on a fairly regular basis.

She was the shoutier end of Starmer's so called "Mr Rules" approach, a serious belief that government had to be washed clean of its tawdry image after multiple scandals and Boris Johnson's, ahem, flexible attitude to the normal rules.

She portrayed herself as a loud and proud champion of ordinary people looking at the worst Westminster behaviour in disgust.

For Labour in general, it undermines again, their claim to be different to those who went before, to return government to the "service of the people", as Sir Keir said so many times – to be competent, with clean heels.

For the government's number two to have messed up her tax affairs undermines faith in ministers' ability. As one MP put it, "it's not even a rookie error, it's 40,000 smackers of oversight".

And for such a prominent politician to lose their job over property dealings that many of the public couldn't imagine being able to afford gives the impression, again, that politicians live in a different world.

"There's just the smell test," a Labour insider said.

This time last year, Rayner, the prime minister himself, and even the chancellor were all red faced for taking, albeit permitted freebies, of clothes, glasses, and gig tickets, struggling to explain why politicians are entitled to free stuff the rest of us are not.

Twelve months on, Rayner is the fifth minister who has quit after their actions caused embarrassment for the government. Those clean heels look a bit scruffy now.

The mess is, of course, a gift for Nigel Farage. At his party's conference in Birmingham on Friday Rayner's exit didn't just shove him on stage a few hours early for his speech to try to grab a space in the news cycle, it gave more ammunition to his fundamental argument.

Reform's pitch rests on a claim that the two big parties are as bad as each other, and preside over a system that is bust.

Does his vow he could stop the small boats in a fortnight stand up? We'll be talking to the Reform leader later, and our full interview will be on the show on Sunday.

The prime minister's answer to the drama of the last couple of days?

Making changes to his ministers.

The decisions were made finally because of Rayner's exit but the moves have been long in the making.

Downing Street's hope is to salvage opportunity out of what was fast morphing into a crisis. A No 10 source tells me: "None of us expected it to unfold as it did, but this gives real shape and substance to a refreshed No 10 team, marking a strong new phase of this premiership."

You and I might translate that as: "The saga over Angela's tax was a total pain in the neck, but it's given us the excuse to make some of the changes we fancied anyway."

One insider described it as moving those who were "a bit awkward, or a bit tired".

What those changes add up to depends on who you ask.

One ally of the PM tells me, the reshuffle "is all about immigration", believing "Shabana [Mahmood] is the one who can get a grip of this" to solve the small boats issue or "we're all done for".

Some of Starmer's allies have long admired Shabana Mahmood, and believe her elevation to home secretary will see bring a more forthright approach to cracking the problems of the immigration system.

As justice secretary she held out the possibility of castrating sex offenders. That is not exactly a proposal designed to warm the hearts of Labour Party branch meetings.

But in some government circles there's a hope she'll take a more strident approach to the small boats crisis than Yvette Cooper.

Cooper moves to a life where she'll spend a lot more time on a plane, as foreign secretary. But those close to her believe it's a tribute to her work doing deals with countries on migration in this last year that she has been given the arguably more prestigious job.

I wouldn't bet we'll see her meeting JD Vance in waders any time soon. But there is the small matter of a state visit from his boss, President Trump, in a matter of days.

Different sources point to other appointments as the ones that will make the difference. The government's often stated number one priority has been to get the economy growing. You don't need me to tell you they haven't been having a great time with that.

Sources suggest moving Pat McFadden, the wily political brain, into a new mega ministry to deal with welfare and skills is part of a souped-up attempt to get the country working, and moving Peter Kyle to business is a way to soothe fevered brows of industry.

He takes the seat of Jonathan Reynolds, who moves to the vital role of chief whip. Given how many ructions there were on the backbenches last term, despite the party's mega majority, Reynold's fortunes keeping the party on side, or not, will be critical.

But while the reshuffle was a major set of moves, will it dramatically change what you see from the government that runs the country? Don't expect big swerves.

This is not a reshuffle that has come about because of some massive ideological bust up. It seems more about the personalities of the ministers involved than any dramatic shifts in Starmer's ambition.

His allies say in the first year in office he was frustrated at how hard it was to get anything done. The hope is the new line up will work more quickly, and push harder on the government's most thorny problems. One minister said the "time for incremental change has passed – we don't have long", conscious all the time of Reform breathing down their neck.

Will it work? That's what we'll witness as the months unfold. A senior Labour figure told me disappointedly: "I'm not sure moving personnel is the best thing – the biggest frustration is the lack of project – that's what makes it hard to make day to decisions."

This reshuffle doesn't answer the most frequent complaint made about Sir Keir by his own party, often publicly, that it's just not that clear exactly what he stands for.

"Phase 2" was meant to be "delivery, delivery, delivery". Another bout of political jargon that followed, "change", "renewal", "security", "fairness", "milestones", "first steps", you get the point.

Even some of the PM's allies would admit privately that none of his chosen pitches to the public have made people's hearts sing.

"You can see the problem from Mars," another party insider says, "there's not enough political direction of what he wants to do – so the policies don't lather up into anything". they reckon. That oft-cited problem is not going to be miraculously solved by a set of HR decisions after a huge embarrassment this week.

But Sir Keir's hope this weekend will be that a reboot at the cabinet table makes his government more effective - demonstrating government can work.

And convincing the public of that these days would be a significant achievement.

Seven days ago there was an ambition that week one of "phase two" might be an orderly start to the term. The Rayner saga skewered that plan. Now with his new chosen team in place there is more opportunity to make things work perhaps, but fewer excuses if things go wrong.

A senior party source told me: "The test is how does the PM show how No 10's capacity for political strategy and policy making have materially changed?"

With a long list of problems and the party conference looming, we'll soon know if Downing Street can pass that test, to prove it can manage the many challenges of "phase two" any better than the agonies of year one.