Thursday night football betting: Avoid the game lines, play the props

Thursday night football betting: Avoid the game lines, play the props By Zach Cohen VSiN September 16, 2026 - 2:29 pm The most recent matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Buffalo Bills occurred in 2024, when Buffalo secured a 48‑42 victory in Detroit. That game posted a total of 55½ points; this week’s total is set at 53½, and scoring is anticipated. However, putting up points tends to be more difficult in Thursday night contests, so it will be interesting to see whether these two teams can buck that trend. Last week the Lions’ offense cooled off notably in the second half of their win over the Saints. Still, Detroit’s attack remains talent‑laden and ranked ninth in the NFL for expected points added per play (0.071) last season. Conversely, the Bills, who ranked third in EPA per play (0.145) a year ago, tallied 36 points against an elite Texans defense. The matchup looks primed for a high‑scoring affair, yet I am steering clear of the game lines. I am also avoiding the sides. I had prepared to jump on the Buffalo moneyline, but I held off too long. The line opened around –160 and has since risen to –200 or higher. The spread has shifted from Bills –3 to Bills –4.5, making it less attractive to back Buffalo to cover. Laying a field goal would have been simpler. Even so, I am not inclined to back Detroit either. Buffalo is the superior club and will be playing its first game in a new stadium, which should provide extra motivation. Perhaps the best approach is to incorporate the Buffalo moneyline into a parlay, or to tease the total down and take the over. I am opting to focus on player props instead. Regarding my leaning toward the Bills, I will simply say that I do not trust the Lions’ secondary. It is not only banged up but also lacks elite talent, and nobody exploits broken coverages quite like Josh Allen. We just witnessed this group get torched by Tyler Shough in the second half, and Allen is a markedly better passer. Allen also possesses elite ability to use his size and legs, meaning Detroit will need to adjust its scheme to account for that. Of course, the Lions’ offense should be capable of moving the ball against Buffalo. However, given how Detroit performed in the second half of its most recent game—and the fact that Jared Goff will have to play outdoors—I expect Buffalo to come away with a few additional stops. Dan Campbell is 8‑18 straight up as a road underdog with Detroit. Meanwhile, Joe Brady could step in for Sean McDermott as coach, but the Bills are 14‑2 straight up as home favorites since the start of the 2024 season. **Lions vs. Bills player prop** **Dawson Knox Over 12.5 receiving yards (‑114)** In Week 1, Dalton Kincaid recorded five catches for 130 yards. He is clearly the top pass‑catching tight end in this offense and is likely one of the league’s best weapons at his position. Nevertheless, Knox will remain part of the Bills’ attack, and there may be more opportunities for him this week. If Detroit pays extra attention to Kincaid because of last week’s showing, Brady could be comfortable with a game plan that utilizes Knox, who had two catches for 42 yards when these teams last met. I can see him making more than two receptions this time—even if he finishes with fewer yards. Our OptaAI player‑prop projections estimate Knox finishing with 22.48 receiving yards, representing a 26 percent edge over a receiving‑yard total of 13½. The 12½ line is still available at several sportsbooks, making the edge even larger. While I would love to have more action on such an exciting matchup, I am strictly playing Knox’s over. If the game turns into a shootout, he could cash the ticket on a single reception. **NFL Game Day** **Who:** Detroit Lions (1‑0) at Buffalo Bills (1‑0) **When:** 5:15 p.m. PT Thursday **Where:** Highmark Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y. **TV/streaming:** Amazon Prime **Latest odds:** Bills by 4½ **Against the spread:** Lions 0‑1; Bills 1‑0 **Last week:** Lions defeated the Saints 31‑30 OT; Bills defeated the Texans 36‑31 **Last meeting:** Bills defeated the Lions 48‑42 on Dec. 15, 2024, in Detroit **Series record:** Bills lead 8‑4‑1