Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 1 winners against the spread

Divisional future conversations this offseason have largely commenced with the absence of two sets of teams, the AFC East and AFC West.

No one wants to bet against the Buffalo Bills or Kansas Chiefs, respectively. Odds say the Bills have the clearest path to a home playoff game as their price to win the AFC East sits as high as -400 (i.e. risking $400 to win $100).

The Chiefs are a far more modest -120 to win the AFC West, but they’ve claimed the crown nine straight times and left too much scar tissue on those who have dared bet against them before.

But don’t be scared.

Kansas City might be the NFL’s current dynastic force with five Super Bowl appearances and three wins in the last six years but runs like that historically tail off. This is the season to bet on that happening for the Chiefs.

They’ve been near flawless in close games throughout most of the run, and much of that credit goes to the coach-quarterback combination of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. But even that all-time duo can’t fully explain last year’s 15-2 regular season record that made for the largest discrepancy between actual wins and Pythagorean expectation in NFL history.  

The Chiefs, with a +59 point differential, were more like a 10-7 team in terms of quality by any and every metric. Some regression is all but guaranteed, and could make for a toxic mix with the long-running trend of the defending Super Bowl runner-up underperforming the next season.

Meanwhile, the AFC West presents a gauntlet. The the Los Angeles Chargers go into year two with coach Jim Harbaugh, the Denver Broncos have one of the best rosters in the league and the Las Vegas Raiders are inching towards respectability.

Betting the Chiefs not to win the AFC West at Even money might be a worthwhile play, but let’s go for a little higher payout. The Broncos are as high as +350 (at Wynn) to dethrone the Chiefs, and look like the most complete rival.

That implies only a 22% chance, which isn’t high enough. The rest of the league has caught up to Kansas City. The Chiefs’ record might not have reflected it last year, but that makes it an even better time to sell on the three-time defending AFC champions as they open the season Friday in Brazil against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Read below for my handicap of that point spread along with the other 15 games as part of the Week 1 slate. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence cateogires — plays, leans and gusses. The record last year finished at 141-136-8 (49-54-3, 53-43-3, 39-39-2).

Plays (0-0)

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Carolina Panthers Carolina’s second-half surge last season is getting painfully over-exaggerated considering its four wins all came against non-playoff teams by a total of 16 points. Jacksonville is the team that could actually make a major leap this season with a creative playcaller in new coach Liam Coen and possibly the NFL’s most exciting young receiving corps led by Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Laying 3 requires paying -120 but that’s still a better bet than playing the more widespread -3.5 at the standard -110.    

Miami Dolphins pick’em at Indianapolis Colts Dolphins’ stock has dipped further than any other teams’ this offseason. That should signal a buy point. Miami has serious concerns defensively but have consistently fielded one of the NFL’s top offenses when everyone is healthy like they will be for this season debut.  

Washington Commanders -5.5 vs. New York Giants There will be no sophomore slump from reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels, who could take another leap behind a reinforced offensive line. The addition of longtime Texans’ left tackle Laremy Tunsil should help keep the fearsome Giants’ pass rush at bay for long enough for Daniels to pick up his magic right where it left off.

New York Jets +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers The overall roster quality of these two teams is way too close for one side to be laying a field goal on the road. Pittsburgh was middling for its standards against the run last year, finishing 13^th by both the DVOA ratings and expected points added per play, and should decline further this year with an aging defensive core. That could spell a tricky matchup against New York’s new ground-based attack.  

Atlanta Falcons +2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Falcons haven’t been this big of a home underdog to the Buccaneers since 2021, Tom Brady’s penultimate season. That’s telling considering how much they have looking up this season with the pairing of quarterback Michael Penix Jr. and running back Bijan Robinson. Consider playing Atlanta on the moneyline at +125 over the point spread unless it moves to the full field goal.  

New Orleans Saints +6.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals This line opened Cardinals -4.5 but has seen one-way traffic on the favorite with perception forming around the idea that the Saints will be far and away the worst team in the NFL. That feels presumptuous. New Orleans is highly unlikely to contend, but there’s so much unknown coming into every NFL season that no team should start out priced as historically inept.  

Las Vegas Raiders +3 at New England Patriots Both teams underwent major changes this offseason but there’s a case to be made that the Raiders’ personnel, especially on offense, is stronger than their Patriots’ counterparts. With home-field advantage worth two points or less in the modern NFL, this line implies the opposite.

Detroit Lions +2.5 at Green Bay Packers Detroit should be much better on defense than at the end of last year considering the unit was completely ravaged by injury. The offense will slip some with the defection of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to Chicago but replacement John Morton still has plenty of weapons to work with. The Lions have won six of the last seven against the Packers and remain the team to beat in the NFC North until proven otherwise.

Leans (0-0)

 Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs. Houston Texans Matthew Stafford’s recurring back issues makes the long-term outlook sketchy for the Rams, but he’s reportedly rallied to be in good enough shape to play against the Texans. As long as he’s not severely hampered, the Rams should be favored by at least a field goal against a Texans’ team that might have the NFL’s worst offensive line.

Baltimore Ravens +1 at Buffalo Bills Baltimore outgained Buffalo by a staggering 2.7 yards per play in January’s 27-25 divisional-round playoff loss as 1.5-point favorites. The Ravens’ roster has only gotten better since then, especially defensively where the Bills are again dealing with injuries, and will have something to prove in the rematch.

Cincinnati Bengals -5 at Cleveland Browns The rallying cry of the entire Bengals’ offseason has been getting off to a faster start to the season after losing the opener in each of the last three years. The Browns have haunted the rival Bengals in the past with a strong defense but that unit has weakened significantly around Myles Garrett this year.    

Chicago Bears +1.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings  Like Kansas City, Minnesota benefitted from an all-time run of good fortune in close games — 8-2 in contests decided by a touchdown or less — and turnovers — a +12 margin despite a high rate of fumbles and turnover-worthy passes — last year. That’s left it overvalued going into this year particularly with new quarterback JJ McCarthy making his first-ever start on the road.

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 at Seattle Seahawks After an injury-plagued campaign a year ago, the 49ers’ health situation is already trending downwards again this season. This line is short if the 49ers’ cluster injuries in the wide receiving corps and trenches clear up in time for kickoff, so monitor the situation.  

Guesses (0-0)

Dallas Cowboys +8.5 at Philadelphia Eagles Micah Parsons is the best defensive player in the NFL, and the jump from as low as Eagles -6.5 to -7.5 after his trade from the Cowboys to the Packers last week was justified. But the move should have stopped there; it’s now becoming too prohibitive to back the defending Super Bowl champions on banner night.  

Los Angeles Chargers +3 vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Sao Paulo, Brazil For all the love they get in the betting market, the Chiefs have only been profitable once in the last five years against the spread — and that was when they squeaked out a 9-8 record versus the number in 2023. They’re perennially overvalued at this point, and worth looking for spots to bet against. Fire away if the Chargers climb to 3.5-point underdogs before kickoff.    

Tennessee Titans +8 at Denver Broncos Both of these teams might be buy-on sides early in the season with plenty of reasons to expect improvement. If the Broncos have a fatal flaw, it’s that their offense doesn’t project as all that explosive. Let’s see if they’ve improved in that area before committing to lay more than a touchdown against anyone.