Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 12 winners against the spread

The Philadelphia Eagles zapped the energy out of local sportsbooks on what are typically two of their liveliest nights the last couple weeks.

Week 10’s "Monday Night Football" and Week 11’s Sunday night game both featured the defending Super Bowl champions, who turned the contests into their preferred defensive slogs. A 10-7 win at the Packers followed by a 16-9 victory hosting the Lions didn’t thrill the over-leaning, anytime touchdown-betting masses, but the pair of triumphs strengthened Philadelphia’s title-defense prospects.

For the first time this year, the Eagles are now the Super Bowl 60 favorites. With an inside track on the NFC’s No. 1 seed after surviving the toughest portions of their schedule, the Eagles surpassed the Rams in odds to win the conference.

The former is now +260 (i.e. risking $100 to win $260) at Circa Sports, fractions ahead of the latter at +270.

The Chiefs’ 22-19 loss to the Broncos also lifted the Eagles to sit alongside the Rams as the top overall championship choice at 5-to-1.   

It’s the Rams’ turn to make an impression on a national standalone audience this week as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday night.

That’s before the divisional rival San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers on "Monday Night Football." The pair of games have two of the highest totals of the week, both at over/under 49.5, so the local betting spots figure to be rocking again and undo the dullness recently inflicted by the Eagles.

Read below for my handicaps of Eagles at Cowboys, Buccaneers at Rams and Panthers at 49ers below along with all the other games scheduled for Week 12. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 92-67-5 after a 7-6-2 record last week.

Picks (32-30-1)

San Francisco 49ers -6.5 vs. Carolina Panthers The betting market has priced now-healthy 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy as only a marginal upgrade from backup Mac Jones for two straight weeks. That feels incorrect, and Purdy should help torch a Panthers’ defense that’s getting too much praise and gave up nearly 6 yards per play to a reeling Falcons’ offense in a 30-27 win as 3.5-point underdogs last week.   

Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars One NFL betting rule to live by: Fade a middling team coming off its best performance. Stock was down on Jacksonville before last week’s 35-6 breakout hosting the Los Angeles Chargers as 3-point underdogs, but the victory added two points to this week’s spread to reach a key number. This game is a coin flip based on a fuller view of the season.   

Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings The Packers continue to look better from a statistical perspective than their final scores indicate considering they're 3-7 against the spread and have covered only once in the last eight weeks. That dichotomy isn’t guaranteed to converge but typically, it does at some point. This could be a spot for it to start given the current growing pains of Vikings second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy.     

Pittsburgh Steelers +3 at Chicago Bears Chicago’s 7-3 straight-up record is the most misleading mark in the league considering it has a -6 point differential on the year and only 3.7 expected wins by the DVOA ratings. This line might be bloated with the uncertainty around Aaron Rodgers’ status and ability dealing with a wrist injury, but backup Mason Rudolph showed he’s comfortable with the system filling in during a 34-12 win over the Bengals as 5.5-point favorites last week.   

Leans (31-20-3)

Los Angeles Rams -6.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Buccaneers eked out a series of tightrope-walking wins to start the year that inflated their power rating. The market still hasn’t fully adjusted properly to Tampa Bay’s status as a middle-of-the-road side, as it’s failed to cover in three of four games. It’s not going to get any easier this week on the road against what might be the best team in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals +8.5 vs. New England Patriots New England has won all of its road games, but the only one that came by more than a touchdown was a 31-13 stomping of Tennessee in Week 7. The Bengals are bad, but they’re not Titans-level bad, meaning the 7-point spread before receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension was announced looked like a fairer line.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Indianapolis Colts The Colts were worth a bet at the shops that opened the Chiefs as a 4.5-point favorite, but the move all the way down to a field goal — albeit with -120  juice — is too much. This is a high-leverage spot for the Chiefs, and coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes have come through in high-leverage spots at a historic rate.

Detroit Lions -10 vs. New York Giants This line crashed as much as 1.5 points with news that Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart was on pace to clear concussion protocol and start against the Lions. But there’s also been talk from interim coach Mike Kafka about changing the rookie phenom’s playing style to take fewer hits, so it’s fair to wonder if Dart will be as effective in his first game back.  

Guesses (29-17-1)

Houston Texans +6 vs. Buffalo Bills Houston’s offense is even more severely limited than usual with C.J. Stroud sidelined and backup Davis Mills filling in, but its defense leads the league in the expected points added per play. Reigning NFL Most Valuable Player Josh Allen isn’t set up to carry the Bills with another six-touchdown performance like in the Bills’ 44-32 victory over the Buccaneers as 6-point favorites last week.

Seattle Seahawks -13 at Tennessee Titans Seattle remains the top team in DVOA despite last week’s 21-19 loss at the Los Angeles Rams as 3-point underdogs. Tennessee is similarly entrenched as the last-place team. The gap between the NFL’s best and worst sure seems like it should be at least 14 points this year.  

New Orleans Saints -1.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Losing quarterback Michael Penix to a knee injury is one thing for the Falcons but supplementing it with the absence of top receiver Drake London makes it hurt even more. Atlanta should have little to no semblance of a passing game behind broken-down veteran Kirk Cousins, and New Orleans’ defense has been above-average against the run this season.   

Baltimore Ravens -13.5 vs. New York Jets This is practically the same point spread the Patriots laid against the Jets last week ahead of a 27-14 home win. The Ravens have been the best regular-season team in the NFL for the last three years; the Patriots have put together a strong two-and-a-half-month stretch against an all-time weak schedule. Baltimore deserves more respect, as concerns about its lethargic 27-20 win at Cleveland as 7.5-point favorites are overblown considering how thoroughly the Ravens dominated the box score.

Dallas Cowboys +3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles The number looks exactly right, but it was easy to come away encouraged by the boost new defensive tackle Quinnen Williams gave the Cowboys’ defense in a 33-16 victory over the Raiders as 3.5-point favorites on "Monday Night Football." Philadelphia’s lack of explosion on offense will bite it at some point, and could be glaring this week against a Dallas offense that soars when it’s in rhythm.  

Cleveland Browns +4 at Las Vegas Raiders The Raiders are dipping towards historically inefficient on offense, sitting 30^th in the league by DVOA and only narrowly ahead of the Titans and Browns. Backing a fifth-round rookie quarterback making his first start on the road like Shedeur Sanders is unappealing, but Las Vegas hasn’t flashed enough firepower to pull away from any opponent.