Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 13 winners against the spread

Few teams in the NFL have made for better bets than the Indianapolis Colts this season.

The Colts sit at 7-3-1 against the spread after last week’s 23-20 loss-but-cover as a closing 4.5-point underdog at the Kansas City Chiefs – a fraction behind the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks at 8-3 versus the number.

But Indianapolis gets bonus points by becoming the first team to eclipse its preseason win total, over/under 7.5 victories, by beating Atlanta 31-25 as closing 6-point favorites in Berlin three weeks ago.

The Colts (8-3 straight-up) were as high as 6-to-1 to win the AFC South coming into the season but now sit as low as -250 (i.e. risking $250 to win $100).

They’d be even higher if not for the fact that few teams in the NFL are hotter than the divisional-rival Houston Texans.

Houston has won three straight, and four of five, to get back into the playoff picture. The Texans (6-5 straight-up) are as low as +150 to reach the playoffs for the third consecutive year after getting as high as 6-to-1 following an 0-3 start to the season.

The first meeting between the two teams stands out as the highlight of the Week 13’s Sunday slate with Indianapolis laying 4.5 points at most sports books hosting Houston.

It’s a front-loaded schedule otherwise with four high-leverage games scheduled for Thursday and Friday of a holiday week, leaving the AFC South showdown to get clear main-screen treatment at sportsbooks across Las Vegas in Sunday’s morning window.

Both teams have defied expectations in their own way, but only one can continue at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Find my handicap of Texans at Colts below along with all the other Week 13 games. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 99-71-8 after a 7-4-3 record last week.

Plays (34-30-3)

San Francisco 49ers -5 at Cleveland Browns San Francisco’s defense has taken a leap with coordinator Robert Saleh somehow having managed to scheme the spare parts left after an injury epidemic into a competent unit. It should be a big challenge for Cleveland rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who shouldn’t be given too much credit for his solid but unspectacular showing against a deteriorating Las Vegas team last week.  

Indianapolis Colts -4 vs. Houston Texans The Texans are getting a major market boost from the return of C.J. Stroud, but quarterbacks in their first game back out of concussion protocol have a history of underperforming and the offense has operated efficiently under backup Davis Mills. Conversely, having gone 1-2 straight-up and against the spread in their last three games, the Colts are available at a buy-low point for perhaps the final time.

Tennessee Titans +7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Tennessee has quietly improved drastically on both sides of the ball, helping to cover in each of its last three games. The Jaguars are too inconsistent to lay a touchdown on the road in a divisional game, even with backing the Titans +7 requiring laying -120 (i.e. risking $120 to win $100). That’s a better bet than Titans +6.5 at -110.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. Arizona Cardinals Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield will likely gut through a joint sprain on his nonthrowing shoulder to play against Arizona. If and when that becomes clear, this line will swell as high as three points. Aside from Mayfield, the Cardinals’ injury report is far worse than the Buccaneers’ list.  

New York Jets +3 vs. Atlanta Falcons The Jets rate slightly above the Saints in both DVOA and expected points added (EPA) per play at the bottom of the NFL. So how can the Falcons go from being a 2.5-point underdog at the former, albeit ahead of a rather easy 24-10 win, to a 3-point favorite against the latter? The swings on Atlanta’s power rating are too severe.   

Leans (33-21-4)

Green Bay Packers +3 at Detroit Lions These teams profile as almost dead-even — all the way down to dire injury situations on both sides — with a tiebreaker being the Packers dominant 27-13 Week 1 win over the Lions as 1.5-point favorites. Home-field advantage hasn't been worth anywhere close to three points in recent years, so this line incorrectly implies the Lions are the superior team.

Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 vs. Buffalo Bills Sunday’s weather forecast at Acrisure Stadium looks troublesome with likely rain and winds. That makes under 47.5 points a promising look. A low-scoring game in the elements also inherently benefits the less-explosive, underdog side.    

Washington Commanders +7 vs. Denver Broncos For all their success, the Broncos’ offense remains limited and slots only No. 18 in the NFL by EPA per play. Six of the eight games in their current winning streak have come by four points or less, meaning they should be precluded from giving this large of a spread on the road.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 vs. Chicago Bears Chicago is on a generational run of turnover luck, leading the NFL with a +16 margin including better than a 65% fumble recovery rate. Those statistics are notoriously fickle and unlikely to sustain at the same level for the rest of the season. Fading an overperforming team against the defending Super Bowl champions off a loss sounds like a nice setup.

Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders It’s easy to envision a bye week helping the Chargers work out of their woes, including a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars as 3-point favorites in their last game. It’s more difficult to have faith in a Raiders team riding a five-game losing streak being sparked by the firing of $18 million offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.   

Guesses (32-20-1)

Seattle Seahawks -10 vs. Minnesota Vikings J.J. McCarthy has been the worst quarterback in the NFL over the last two weeks, but things may only get worse if the Vikings are forced to start undrafted rookie backup Max Brosmer this week with the former concussed. Seattle is likelier to get positive injury news with several members of their beaten-up defense nearing return.  

Miami Dolphins -5.5 vs. New Orleans Saints This is a fair line if simply going off of both teams’ statistical profiles devoid of context, but the situation may call for Miami deserving a slight bump upwards. The Dolphins are coming off of a bye having already shown recent signs of life by winning and covering in three of their last four games.

Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Dallas Cowboys This line looks exactly right. The ideal strategy would be to wait and consider the Cowboys strongly if a +3.5 ever appears but, at 3, the underdog isn’t quite attractive enough.  

Los Angeles Rams -10.5 at Carolina Panthers The Rams moved to the top spot in the NFL by both DVOA and EPA per play after last week’s 34-7 win over the Buccaneers as 7.5-point favorites. They’re playing at too high of a level under now odds-on Most Valuable Player favorite Matthew Stafford to fade.

Baltimore Ravens -7 vs. Cincinnati Bengals Cincinnati would have been the pick at +7.5, but the flood of money it’s taken is enough to second-guess the underdog. Superstar quarterback Joe Burrow will return, but there’s no telling his current state and it’s a slight ding that he’ll be without No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins. Don’t settle on the key number with the Bengals; only take a better price.

New York Giants +7.5 at New England Patriots Consider this the uglier cousin to the aforementioned Buffalo at Pittsburgh game. Weather could be factor, leaving some value on taking the under 47. The Patriots’ offensive efficiency has gradually slowed in the last couple weeks and now it must adjust without injured rising rookie left tackle Will Campbell.