Vegas pick'em: NFL Week 14 winners against the spread

The AFC North has held strong as the NFL’s standard-bearer division for the last half-decade if not longer.

The division had produced at least two playoff teams for five straight seasons, including memorably sending all four members in the 2020-2021 campaign, and there was no end in sight coming into this year.

Both the two-time defending AFC North champion Baltimore Ravens as well as the Cincinnati Bengals, which won the division in the two seasons before that, were odds-on favorites to reach the postseason before Week 1.  

The Pittsburgh Steelers were a virtual pick’em — listed at odds around +115 (i.e. risking $100 to win $115) — to join their rivals in the 14-field.

But now all of a sudden it feels like an obligation to include an AFC North team.

The group of teams has plummeted this season. The AFC North is the only division in the NFL without a single team that sports a winning record.

None of the teams have been profitable to bet on either as Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Cleveland are all 5-7 against the spread with Baltimore lagging behind at 4-8.

The Ravens, which came into the year as Super Bowl favorites, are arguably the most disappointing team in the league. It’s telling that they’ve remained the favorite to win the division throughout despite falling as many as four games behind Pittsburgh in the standings after an early rash of injuries.

Baltimore is now -260 (i.e. risking $260 to win $100) to win the AFC North at Caesars/William Hill, and the only team favored to make the playoffs. Both Pittsburgh and Cincinnati are more than 2-to-1 underdogs to rally for a spot now.

Time is running out but that could change this week. Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow is back from an injury for a second straight game in a big showdown at the Bills.

The Steelers meanwhile can recapture the divisional lead by upsetting the Ravens on the road.

Read below for my point-spread handicap of those two games along with the rest of the Week 14 slate. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — and listed in rough order of conviction. The overall record for the season now sits at 105-80-9 after a 6-9-1 record last week.

Plays (36-32-4)

Kansas City Chiefs -3 vs. Houston Texans Kansas City had some close-game-luck debt to pay after years of catching every endgame break, and this year’s 1-6 record contests decided by a touchdown or less has provided the long-awaited regression. But it’s also now leaving the Chiefs undervalued as they remain one of the best teams in the NFL and arguably should lay more than field goal to almost any team on their home field.    

Los Angeles Rams -7.5 at Arizona Cardinals Two points shaved off this point spread from last week’s lookahead line after the Rams’ 31-28 loss at the Panthers as 10-point favorites. But the performance didn’t merit any downgrade as Los Angeles outgained Carolina by 1.6 net yards per play and punted only once. Quarterback Matthew Stafford’s three turnovers doomed the Rams, but that type of performance is highly unlikely to repeat.

Tennessee Titans +4 at Cleveland Browns The Browns are too limited offensively to lay this large of a number to any team — even the NFL-worst Titans. If the season-low total of over/under 33.5 points isn’t reason enough to avoid laying points in this slog of a game, also consider the Titans are healthier. The Browns dealing with a number of absences including a cluster injury on the offensive line.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 at Los Angeles Chargers Los Angeles quarterback Justin Herbert may play less than a week after surgery on his fractured nonthrowing hand, but his effectiveness will take a hit. Herbert was glaringly limited by the injury last week, but it didn’t matter in a 31-14 win over the Raiders as 9.5-point favorites. It’s more problematic against a legitimate opponent like the Eagles.

Green Bay Packers -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears Green Bay sits fifth in the NFL by the DVOA ratings; Chicago ranks No. 19. Every other all-encompassing metric paints a similar gap between these divisional rivals. The Packers have underperformed on the season but might be turning a corner with three straight wins and all the personnel necessary to be considered a threat in the NFC.   

Leans (36-23-4)

Baltimore Ravens -5.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Three days of extra rest off a 32-14 Thanksgiving loss as a 7.5-point favorite against the Bengals should work wonders for the Ravens. Baltimore’s underlying metrics remain strong everywhere except quarterback as Lamar Jackson guts through multiple injuries. Jackson’s been healthy enough to play, however, and if he ever supplements that by getting back to a fraction of his normal level physically, the Ravens will be contenders once again.      

Dallas Cowboys +3.5 at Detroit Lions In what should come as a shock to no one, coach Dan Campbell taking over play calling has failed to restore Detroit’s offense to its high standard from the past two years. Now he has to keep attempting the impossible feat without the team’s top weapon in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The top receiver’s absence should count for more on the point spread, which remains unchanged from before his injury last week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -8.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Tampa Bay’s injury report has gone from one of the NFL’s longest to one of the NFL’s least significant. With almost all of their key players back on the field, the Buccaneers are poised to once again look like a team that can beat any opponent on the right day like they’ve been at their best the last few years.   

Jacksonville Jaguars +2 vs. Indianapolis Colts Daniel Jones’ leg injury might be ruining what had earlier appeared to be a season to remember for the Colts. Indianapolis has lost three of four with its quarterback’s mobility noticeably limited in last week’s 20-16 defeat to Houston as 3-point favorites. This would be a fair line if Jones somehow got healthy by Sunday but that feels like a long shot.

Miami Dolphins -2.5 at New York Jets The Jets snuck out a 27-24 victory over the Falcons last week despite being outgained by 1.5 net yards per play. New York’s five game covering streak seems largely the product of good fortune more than upgraded play. The Dolphins’ improvement, which has seen them win four of their last five games, looks more real.

Guesses (33-25-1)

Atlanta Falcons +7.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold’s efficiency has tailed off in the last three weeks with rumblings of an ankle injury that might be more severe than the team is letting on. The Seahawks are also in a tough spot playing a second straight East coast road game against a Falcons’ side that’s better than their 4-8 straight-up record implies.  

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 at Buffalo Bills The Bengals’ offense has consistently caused problems for the Bills under coach Sean McDermott as they’re 4-0 against the spread and 3-1 straight-up including two straight outright upsets. Burrow figures to only get healthier just one game back from turf toe and raises his team’s ceiling as much as any single player in the NFL.   

Washington Commanders +2.5 at Minnesota Vikings Minnesota opening as high as a 2-point underdog in this game despite quarterback J.J. McCarthy returning — yes, he’s a big upgrade over undrafted free agent rookie Max Brosmer — made no sense, but the market may have since overcorrected. This game between two underwhelming playoff teams from last year looks more like a pick’em.

Las Vegas Raiders +8 vs. Denver Broncos The Raiders could have easily knocked off the Broncos with a different bounce or two a month ago when they lost 10-7 in Denver as closing 8.5-point underdogs. They’ve undoubtedly only gotten worse since then, but the Broncos play almost exclusively close games and the Raiders deserve more than a half-point adjustment for home-field advantage.